Prince Fielder’s comps
Posted by Andy on April 8, 2010
Check out Prince Fielder's main page. Here are the most similar players through age 25:
- Juan Gonzalez (928)
- Eddie Murray (918) *
- Jim Rice (907) *
- Jose Canseco (904)
- Darryl Strawberry (903)
- Will Clark (901)
- Bob Horner (895)
- Frank Thomas (891)
- Mark Teixeira (891)
- Kent Hrbek (890)
Am I the only person surprised by this? The guy has 130 HR in the last 3 seasons. That's the 3rd-most HR for players over their age 23, 24, and 25 seasons:
| Rk | Player | HR | From | To |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jimmie Foxx | 136 | 1931 | 1933 |
| 2 | Alex Rodriguez | 135 | 1999 | 2001 |
| 3 | Prince Fielder | 130 | 2007 | 2009 |
| 4 | Albert Pujols | 130 | 2003 | 2005 |
| 5 | Willie Mays | 128 | 1954 | 1956 |
| 6 | Vladimir Guerrero | 124 | 1998 | 2000 |
| 7 | Mickey Mantle | 123 | 1955 | 1957 |
| 8 | Harmon Killebrew | 119 | 1959 | 1961 |
| 9 | Troy Glaus | 118 | 2000 | 2002 |
| 10 | Orlando Cepeda | 115 | 1961 | 1963 |
| 11 | Mark McGwire | 114 | 1987 | 1989 |
| 12 | Ralph Kiner | 114 | 1946 | 1948 |
| 13 | Adam Dunn | 113 | 2003 | 2005 |
| 14 | Hank Aaron | 113 | 1957 | 1959 |
| 15 | Jim Rice | 110 | 1976 | 1978 |
| 16 | Eddie Mathews | 110 | 1955 | 1957 |
| 17 | Rocky Colavito | 108 | 1957 | 1959 |
| 18 | Mark Teixeira | 107 | 2003 | 2005 |
| 19 | Andruw Jones | 105 | 2000 | 2002 |
| 20 | Frank Robinson | 104 | 1959 | 1961 |
Fielder's peripheral stats seem pretty good to me...good OBP, OPS+, walk totals, and he's even scored 298 runs over the last 3 seasons.
I just don't get why his comparison group isn't a little better. I suppose part of it is that 4 of the guys on his top-1o list (Gonzalez, Canseco, Strawberry, and Teixeira) didn't have long term success for different reasons. Gonzalez was injured. Canseco declined. Strawberry had numerous substance and legal problems. Teixeira is just too young. I suppose if I overlook the lackluster second-half results for these careers (and assume that Teixeira will continue on a reasonable career trajectory) then the comparison group looks a lot better when adding in HOFers Murray, Rice, and (one day) Thomas. Even though Clark and Hrbek had good careers I'm sure the Brewers and their fans would be bitterly disappointed if Fielder's career ended up on par with either of those guys.
April 8th, 2010 at 2:22 pm
The list looks OK to me. Sometimes the comps are a bit weird because James' scores are intentionally "traditional" (no park/era adjustments, emphasis on traditional stats) to match HOF voter biases that he perceived in the early 90s when he invented them, but those can usually be spotted by looking for OPS+ outliers. Most look reasonably close to Fielder. 140 OPS+ for Fielder, 137 for the field.
To get more inner circle-type comps, Fielder would have to have started a couple of years earlier allowing him to collect 30-40 more HR's and have a batting average of 20-30 points higher. Here's where the inner circle is at age 25:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/scomp_bat.cgi?I=foxxji01:Jimmie%20Foxx&st=int&compage=25&age=25
Clark actually has quite a few sabermetric fans. He didn't mash the taters like most of the other guys on list but note that his OPS+ is much higher than everyone elses at this point. If injuries didn't slow him down he'd have a much better case for the HOF. Even with the injuries, the BBTF put them in their "Hall of Merit".
Fielder will be in good shape if he can stay healthy. His HOF chances will depend on how long he plays after age 30.
April 8th, 2010 at 6:20 pm
What he said. Gonzalez, Rice, Canseco and Strawberry all looked like inner-circle guys after their first few seasons, so this is saying Fielder looks terrific. If you think similarity scores have any predictive value, then the list is a bit of a worry, but mostly it's a reminder that the race is not always to the swift. A lot of guys come on like gangbusters in thier 20s, but the ones we put on the upper rungs are the ones who were still pounding them out in their 30s (and early 40s).
Looking at the HR list, I note that Eddie Mathews is only 16th, with 110 HR ages 23-25. But that overlooks the 112 HR he had ages 20-22! Now, there was a guy who got out of the gates fast.
April 8th, 2010 at 6:20 pm
Are we already talking about Fielder in the HOF? Yes if he keeps up his stats he will be shoe-in but he is ONLY 25 so he has a LONG way to go to reach that point. How many guys have started off strong and burnt out
April 8th, 2010 at 7:15 pm
Yes. Far too early and many do flame out, but there was some surprise about much better others had come out of the gate historically. The age-based leaderboards here are awesome. I used to spend hours generating those types of lists when I was a kid. Here's age 25:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/leaders_25_bat.shtml
Fielder shows up in the IBB and AB/HR lists but none of the major counting stats. The big names break in younger. Here is the HR through age 25 list:
1. Alex Rodriguez 241
2T. Jimmie Foxx 222
2T. Eddie Mathews 222
4. Mel Ott 211
5. Mickey Mantle 207
6. Frank Robinson 202
7. Albert Pujols 201
8. Orlando Cepeda 191
9. Ken Griffey 189
10. Andruw Jones 185
...
PFielder 160
April 8th, 2010 at 7:32 pm
Actually what's kind of fun about Fielder is to compare him to his dad. His dad couldn't get playing time when he was young, went to Japan for a year and then was MVP-runner-up his first two seasons back at ages 26-27. Prince just completed age 25. So one could take Prince's career start and add it to Cecil's post-Japan numbers.
Prince-to-25: 2380AB 382R 675H 139D 8T 160HR 453RBI 345BB 535K
Cecil-from-26: 4651AB 677R 1190H 181D 5T 288HR 924RBI 647BB 1172K
-------------
Total: 7031AB 1059R 1865H 320D 13T 448HR 1377RBI 992BB 1707K
I'm sure the two Fielders aren't clones of each other so this type of construction is just a fun thing to do on a board like this.
April 8th, 2010 at 7:53 pm
Nice thought, David. It's tough NOT to compare the two Fielders.
April 8th, 2010 at 8:10 pm
I think that's a representative list. Heavyset sluggers like Fielder (his father, Mo Vaughn, Hrbek, Boog Powell, etc) usually peak early and decline young, so I don't think it makes sense to project him to the very top of the offensive charts.
April 9th, 2010 at 3:44 am
You're surprised the list of his comps isn't better? I'm surprised it isn't worse...
There is essentially no way for him to get better, but many ways for him to get worse. He has a good shot at the HoF, but he has a long way to go, still. And a lot of extra pounds to carry on the trip. A *lot*.
April 9th, 2010 at 7:51 am
Initially yes, I was surprised the list wasn't better.
A note on my blogging here. Many of my posts are carefully researched and written, but many are off the cuff. This is one where I had never thought about it before, had an initial surprised reaction, and decided to quickly post it with the hopes we'd get exactly the discussion we got.
After thinking more about it, it seems likely that Fielder will not amass really large career totals for HR or RBI because of two reasons: a late start compared to many all-time greats and past decline of many similar style players.
April 9th, 2010 at 8:43 am
I'm not surprised by the list at all. It's actually a positive one with a little perspective. Out of the top ten, two are HOFers, and both are in Fielder's top three in similarity scores. A third, Frank Thomas, is a lock for the Hall, bringing it to three of ten, and a fourth, Mark Teixeira, is building the foundation of what could turn into a HOF career. If so, that's four out of the ten. Juan-Gone, Canseco and Strawberry were all MVP-class hitters, with Gonzalez and Strawberry probably considered locks for the Hall earlier in their careers.
The negative to this list is a very high percentage of them peaked in their 20s and faded rapidly in their 30s. Some were gone from the game quickly, and others, such as Thomas, played at a reduced level. Fielder can take comfort in knowing players like Murray and Clark were productive well into their late 30s, yet out of all of the players on that list, he seems to have less in common with those type of hitters.
Odds are pretty good that Fielder will turn out like many on this list. Dominant early and then a substantial drop off in production in his 30s. That means he won't make the Hall.
April 9th, 2010 at 8:54 am
I just checked Teixeira's similarity scores. While I wasn't surprised at Fielder's, I am surprised by this collection of "talent," with the exception being the guy at #2:
Kevin Mitchell (913)
Miguel Cabrera (905)
Tony Clark (883)
Dick Stuart (868)
Geoff Jenkins (861)
Gus Zernial (856)
Aubrey Huff (855)
Richie Sexson (853)
Richie Zisk (853)
Ripper Collins (853)
April 9th, 2010 at 9:24 am
Note that Teixeira's sim scores are mostly below 900, indicating poorer matches. There aren't a lot of good comps for him. These are the best there are.
April 9th, 2010 at 10:31 am
Here's one way to look at Fielder. He is one of only 7 players ever with 3 seasons of at least 34 HR and 100 RBI by age 25:
5 Albert Pujols
5 Alex Rodriguez
3 Prince Fielder
3 Vladimir Guerrero
3 Eddie Matthews
3 Jimmie Foxx
3 Mel Ott
He is also one of only 2 players with 2 seasons of 46 HR and 119 RBI by age 25, with the other being Jimmie Foxx.
April 9th, 2010 at 11:08 am
And the most 35-double seasons of any 25-year-old weighing at least 250 lbs!!!
April 9th, 2010 at 11:17 am
I looked at that list and said "wow, that's good company." You've got a few Hall of Famers in there, a few that fall just shy and a few others that could have been in the Hall if they hadn't gotten sidetracked by injuries or bad decisions.
April 9th, 2010 at 3:28 pm
He is just too heavy to sustain the long career at this level. I think Mo Vaugn is the best comparison, and I am not sure Prince is even as good as Mo was in his best seasons (as an overall hitter - not just HR). Big guys seem to get "old" fast.
April 9th, 2010 at 6:10 pm
@11:
Those are Teixeira's career comps, not age comps. Not many guys amass his career totals and then just stop. That's why Kevin Mitchell tops the list. He was a heckuva player but he couldn't stay healthy.
Teixeira's age 29 comps are more flattering:
1. Carlos Delgado
2. Kent Hrbek
3. Jeff Bagwell
4. Fred McGriff
5. Jim Thome
6. Derrek Lee
7. Shawn Green
8. Albert Belle
9. Hal Trosky
10. Will Clark
Mostly recent guys. A lot of career paths he could follow there. As we've seen before the *young* Hrbek was underrated, but Hrbek started to fade at age 31 or so. Trosky was excellent but suffered terrible headaches that shortened his career. Thome's a HOF-er, hopefully Bagwell, too. McGriff and Delgado are close but probably short.