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Card of the Week: 1988 Score #638 Tom Glavine Rookie Prospect

Posted by Andy on February 20, 2010

There is oh-so-much to like about this rookie baseball card of Tom Glavine:

  • I have no idea if  Glavine ever used banned substances but one thing I know for sure is the size and shape of his body didn't change throughout his career. Especially with his youthful face hidden in a shadow, the photo above could have been from almost any year of his career.
  • The design of the 1988 Score set, and the Rookie Prospect subset, was just fantastic. Keep in mind that this was Score's debut set. From 1981 to 1987, there were just the three main baseball card producers--Topps, Fleer, and Donruss. In 1988 Score came on the scene with a simple yet great-looking set. Upper Deck would come along later to really change the card landscape, but in 1988 this set was big news.
  • The photo itself is wonderful, especially since it includes an extra Braves logo visible in the background, the ball just coming out of Glavine's hand, and the entire field back to the outfield wall.
  • Back in 1988, it was pretty uncommon to see photos on the back of cards, especially color photos.  The backs of these cards were just great, with the color photo and multi-color text.
  • The only thing I've never understood about this set is the purpose of the 3 stars on the front of card. (These stars appear on every card in the set.)

Let's talk a little bit about the player himself.

In the last 50 years of baseball, Glavine is one of just 10 players to amass at least 5 different 20-win seasons.

Rk Yrs From To Age
1 Jim Palmer 8 1970 1978 24-32
2 Fergie Jenkins 7 1967 1974 24-31
3 Roger Clemens 6 1986 2001 23-38
4 Steve Carlton 6 1971 1982 26-37
5 Juan Marichal 6 1963 1969 25-31
6 Tom Glavine 5 1991 2000 25-34
7 Catfish Hunter 5 1971 1975 25-29
8 Tom Seaver 5 1969 1977 24-32
9 Gaylord Perry 5 1966 1978 27-39
10 Bob Gibson 5 1965 1970 29-34
11 Dave Stewart 4 1987 1990 30-33
12 Wilbur Wood 4 1971 1974 29-32
13 Mike Cuellar 4 1969 1974 32-37
14 Luis Tiant 4 1968 1976 27-35
15 Dave McNally 4 1968 1971 25-28
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/19/2010.

I haven't looked at the numbers in detail, but my instinct is that winning 20 games is rarer these days than it used to be, thanks to 5-man rotations and fewer innings pitched by starters. Among active pitchers, nobody has more than two 20-win seasons. I wonder when we'll next see a guy win 20 games five different times. It might be a long time.

It's interesting to note, however, that Glavine's neutralized pitching numbers suggest that he didn't deserve a single 20-win season. His overall W-L record (neutralized) is 267-207 (.563) as opposed to his actual totals of 305-203 (.600.) Glavine's numbers were helped by playing on a lot of really good teams--still, though, we can't really hold that against him and the bottom line is that he pitched consistently and excellently for many years.

Glavine's post-season record mirrors that of the Braves over the same period--lots of appearances but mixed results. In 1995, the year the Braves won it all, Glavine pitched 28 innings and allowed just 5 earned runs. In 1997, however, he allowed 11 earned runs in 19.1 innings.

A reader Joseph made an interesting point about Glavine's numbers. He finished his first season (1987) and his last season (2008) with the same numbers: 2 wins, 4 losses, and a 5.54 ERA.

I want to touch a little more on this card, Glavine, and the Braves. In 1988, this card was not a good pull for a collector. Sure, it was a rookie prospect card, but it was a guy who had bad numbers in 1987 and a terrible season in 1988. In that latter season he had a lousy 80 ERA+ over 195 innings and led the league with 17 losses. The Braves were a lousy team and no kid wanted a rookie card of some lousy pitcher from a lousy team. But those who knew Glavine and baseball thought differently. In 1988, despite the bad overall numbers, there were some very good things. His WHIP was a reasonable 1.35, much better than would be expected for such a bad ERA. He allowed just a few more hits than IP and his walks per 9 IP was a very good 2.9. These were harbingers of things to come as Glavine went on to have very low walk totals in his career and also to allow fewer hits than innings pitched.

So in 1988, most card collectors (including me) took these Glavine cards and put them away in a box. In 1989 and 1990 Glavine was an average pitcher (which says something since the Braves were still bad) and then suddenly he exploded in 1991, right along with his team. He won 20 games and the Cy Young award and the Braves went to the World Series. That's when collectors went back to their boxes of commons to dig out the Tom Glavine rookie cards.

One more thing about Glavine's stats: he was a pretty good hitter. It is well known that the 1990s Braves starting pitchers fiercely competed over their hitting ability. Glavine, Greg Maddux, John Smolts, and Steve Avery all had some excellent batting seasons for the Braves. Glavine himself had 7 different seasons with at least 5 RBI and finished with 25 career doubles. Among active pitchers, only Livan Hernandez, Mike Hampton, and Carlos Zambrano can claim the same. Plenty of pitchers from days gone by did plenty better, but these days those are good numbers. It's just a shame he didn't have more numbers since chicks dig the long ball.

Let's hear your memories of this great pitcher, surely a HOFer one day.

Want to read a bit more on these topics? See the 1988 Score blog, which features info and many card photos from that set. You can also see my post on his Topps rookie card on my old 88 Topps blog.

11 Responses to “Card of the Week: 1988 Score #638 Tom Glavine Rookie Prospect”

  1. Andy Says:

    Looks like the images didn't load properly. I'll get it fixed within the next couple of days.

  2. Johnny Twisto Says:

    Something about the way the neutralize feature calculates W-L record is a little off. In his career, Glavine actually averaged a decision every 8.7 IP. I think this is pretty normal for a SP; last year NL SP average a decision every 8.3 IP, in 1988 it was every 8.8 IP. But the neutralizer has Glavine only averaging a decision every 9.2 IP. It's costing him a bunch of wins (and losses). I don't know for sure, but I'll guess no long-time SP has averaged so few decisions per IP.

  3. Johnny Twisto Says:

    From 1987-2008, there were 118 pitchers who pitched at least 1000 IP and started at least 90% of their games.

    Only 14 of them averaged more than 9 IP per decision. Only 3 of them averaged more than 9.2 IP per decision. And all of those are partial careers who had a lower ratio if you look at their entire careers outside my '87-'08 range.

    The median IP per decision of all 118 pitchers is 8.6. If that was used for Glavine's neutralized record, while keeping the same W-L%, he'd have almost 20 more wins.

  4. Johnny Twisto Says:

    OK, I read the notes on how neutralized records are computed. It says they give the pitcher one decision per 9 IP. That's probably a little high for a starter, but fair enough. But Glavine is actually coming out at 1 per 9.2 IP, as I said. Seems like more than a rounding error. Anyway, a partial explanation of Glavine's lost wins...

  5. Andy Says:

    Images should be visible now. Not sure why it failed the first time.

  6. David G Says:

    One thing I noticed about Glavine when looking at his career stats is that he walked over 100 times. I'm curious who the last pitcher is who walked that many times in his career. Even Rick Ankiel hasn't (yet) walked 100 times. You mentioned Hernandez, Zambrano and Hampton as active good hitting pitchers. They've combined to walk 61 times. So Glavine had good control on the mound and an awesome eye (for a pitcher) at the plate.

  7. Baseball-Reference Blog » Blog Archive » Patient Pitchers Says:

    [...] today's Card of the Week thread, commenter David G wrote: One thing I noticed about Glavine when looking at his career stats is [...]

  8. Innuendo Says:

    «In 1988, despite the bad overall numbers, there were some very good things.»
    Indeed, when you use Bill James Component ERA (which attempts to forecast a pitcher's earned run average from the number of hits and walks allowed), Glavine goes down from 4.56 to 3.74. That's one of the highest differences I have seen between the two stats. Plus batters numbers against Glavine in '88 were .270/.329/.372 compared to the NL averages of .268/.334/.382 ... It's also nice to add that he was great against base stealers, with 14 successeful steals against and 10 caught stealings.

  9. tmckelv Says:

    Look at the imaginary HOF cutoff between the 5+ 20-win season list and 4 20-win season list. (Note: players with less than 4 20-win seasons not incuded in this observation.)

  10. frug Says:

    Oh man I had forgot about that Nike commercial. Seeing that made my day.

  11. Mike Says:

    I have 2 indelible memories of Tom Glavine:

    3/31/2003, CHC at NYM
    3.2 IP, 5R, 5ER, 8H, 4BB, 2K

    9/30/2007, FLA at NYM
    0.1 IP, 7R, 7ER, 5H, 2BB, 0K

    Thanks a lot, Tommy. May you never run into me on the street.