“Natural” grand slam
Posted by Andy on November 8, 2007
Faithful reader kingturtle asked about how often a cleanup hitter hits a "natural" grand slam with the 1-, 2-, and 3-spot hitters on base ahead of him.
Click through to see what I could find.
Well, the PI doesn't have the ability to search in enough detail to find all such instances. You'd need to be able to define baserunners by their spot in the batting order, which cannot be done by the PI. But one thing we can search for will reveal times it happened in the first inning: Team Batting Event Finder for home runs that occurred in the first inning, with the bases loaded, nobody out, by the 4th-position batter.
Here are the three times that happened in 2007:
Yr# G# Date Batter Tm Opp Pitcher Score Inn RoB Out Cnt Pit RBI Play Desc. +-------+---+-------------+-----------------+---+----+-----------------+-----------+---+---+---+---+---+---+-------------------------+ 1 1 2007-05-01 Vladimir Guerrero LAA @KCR Zack Greinke tied 0-0 t 1 123 0 3-1 5 4 Home Run (Fly Ball to LF-CF); Matthews Scores; Willits Scores; Cabrera Scores 2 1 2007-06-23 Raul Ibanez SEA CIN Kyle Lohse tied 0-0 b 1 123 0 0-2 4 4 Home Run (Fly Ball to RF); Suzuki Scores; Lopez Scores; Vidro Scores 3 1 2007-07-13 Brandon Phillips CIN @NYM John Maine tied 0-0 t 1 123 0 0-0 1 4 Home Run (Fly Ball to LF-CF); Freel Scores; Hopper Scores; Griffey Scores
Click on the game date above to see the box scores.
It happened twice in 2006:
Yr# G# Date Batter Tm Opp Pitcher Score Inn RoB Out Cnt Pit RBI Play Desc. +-------+---+-------------+-----------------+---+----+-----------------+-----------+---+---+---+---+---+---+-------------------------+ 1 1 2006-05-18 Jason Bay PIT CIN Dave Williams tied 0-0 b 1 123 0 0-0 1 4 Home Run (LF); Bautista Scores; Wilson Scores; Sanchez Scores 2 1 2006-07-29 Troy Glaus TOR @OAK Barry Zito tied 0-0 t 1 123 0 1-0 2 4 Home Run (CF); Johnson Scores; Hill Scores; Wells Scores
...and twice in 2005:
Yr# G# Date Batter Tm Opp Pitcher Score Inn RoB Out Cnt Pit RBI Play Desc. +-------+---+-------------+-----------------+---+----+-----------------+-----------+---+---+---+---+---+---+-------------------------+ 1 1 2005-06-03 Carlos Lee MIL @LAD Jeff Weaver tied 0-0 t 1 123 0 3-1 5 4 Home Run (Fly Ball to LF); Clark Scores; Cirillo Scores; Jenkins Scores 2 1 2005-08-04 Bobby Abreu PHI CHC Mark Prior tied 0-0 b 1 123 0 1-0 2 4 Home Run (Fly Ball to CF); Rollins Scores; Michaels Scores; Utley Scores
And a few random years.
Three times in 1993:
Yr# G# Date Batter Tm Opp Pitcher Score Inn RoB Out Cnt Pit RBI Play Desc. +-------+---+-------------+-----------------+---+----+-----------------+-----------+---+---+---+---+---+---+-------------------------+ 1 1 1993-07-28 Robin Ventura CHW CLE Albie Lopez tied 0-0 b 1 123 0 0-0 1 4 Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep RF); Raines Scores; Cora Scores; Thomas Scores 2 1 1993-07-28 Todd Zeile STL @PHI Terry Mulholland tied 0-0 t 1 123 0 0-1 2 4 Home Run (Fly Ball); Alicea Scores; Smith Scores; Gilkey Scores 3 1 1993-08-21 Larry Walker MON @CIN John Roper tied 0-0 t 1 123 0 2-1 4 4 Home Run (Line Drive); Grissom Scores; Ready Scores; Vander Wal Scores
Five times in 1984, including once each by the Parrish twins:
Yr# G# Date Batter Tm Opp Pitcher Score Inn RoB Out Cnt Pit RBI Play Desc. +-------+---+-------------+-----------------+---+----+-----------------+-----------+---+---+---+---+---+---+-------------------------+ 1 1 1984-05-11 Larry Parrish TEX @CHW Floyd Bannister tied 0-0 t 1 123 0 - 4 Home Run (LF); Sample Scores; O'Brien Scores; Wright Scores 2 1 1984-06-08 Greg Luzinski CHW MIN Frank Viola tied 0-0 b 1 123 0 - 4 Home Run (LF); Stegman Scores; Fletcher Scores; Paciorek Scores 3 1 1984-06-20 Dave Kingman OAK KCR Mark Gubicza tied 0-0 b 1 123 0 - 4 Home Run; Henderson Scores; Murphy Scores; Lopes Scores 4 1 1984-07-16 Dave Winfield NYY TEX Dickie Noles down 0-2 b 1 123 0 - 4 Home Run; Randolph Scores; Wynegar Scores; Mattingly Scores 5 1 1984-08-21 Lance Parrish DET OAK Lary Sorensen down 0-2 b 1 123 0 - 4 Home Run; Johnson Scores; Trammell Scores; Gibson Scores
(No, they are not really twins...but if you think they are, then Winfield and Kingman are the "Dave twins.")
And once in 1976:
Yr# G# Date Batter Tm Opp Pitcher Score Inn RoB Out Cnt Pit RBI Play Desc. +-------+---+-------------+-----------------+---+----+-----------------+-----------+---+---+---+---+---+---+-------------------------+ 1 1 1976-06-07 Ron Cey LAD PHI Ron Reed down 0-4 b 1 123 0 - 4 Home Run; Lopes Scores; Buckner Scores; Garvey Scores
There's another way to search for these events, which is by using the PI Batting Event Finder for individual players. For example, look at Mike Schmidt' s home run log. Limiting it to 1st inning, no outs, bases loaded as the 4th batter yields:
nothing.
So he never did it.
Doing the same for Dave Winfield, though, yields:
1978 Car# Yr# G# Date Tm Opp Pitcher Score Inn RoB Out Cnt Pit RBI Play Desc. +-----+----+---+-------------+---+----+-----------------+-----------+---+---+---+---+---+---+-------------------------+ 1 1 1 1978-07-04 SDP @SFG John Montefusco tied 0-0 t 1 123 0 - 4 Home Run (LF); Richards Scores; Smith Scores/unER; Gonzalez Scores 1984 Car# Yr# G# Date Tm Opp Pitcher Score Inn RoB Out Cnt Pit RBI Play Desc. +-----+----+---+-------------+---+----+-----------------+-----------+---+---+---+---+---+---+-------------------------+ 2 1 1 1984-07-16 NYY TEX Dickie Noles down 0-2 b 1 123 0 - 4 Home Run; Randolph Scores; Wynegar Scores; Mattingly Scores
This includes one time listed above already, as well as the other time he did it in 1978.
November 8th, 2007 at 10:11 am
Next time show all the times the progress of a game went from solo HR - 2run HR - 3 - 4... where both teams are included.
November 8th, 2007 at 10:21 am
PI can't do that.
November 8th, 2007 at 10:40 am
Is it possible to find out what percentage of ML hitters hit a Grand Slam? Or how many players have been in a bases loaded situation and what the most likely outcome is?
November 8th, 2007 at 10:52 am
well we can talk about the outcomes. i'll post on that tomorrow.
November 8th, 2007 at 11:26 am
Wow! Thanks for indulging my curiosity. The data is very cool! It happens more often than I imagined. Seven times in the past three years - and that's not including innings after the first.
I suppose once I get my subscription I can do the following: "Team Batting Event Finder for home runs that occurred in *any* inning, with the bases loaded, nobody out, by the 4th-position batter." And then I can go through the results by hand and make my list that way.
Thanks again!
November 8th, 2007 at 12:40 pm
My softball team once started a game with 4 straight HRs. Pretty amazing because we only averaged about 1 HR per game. Just wanted to throw that out there. 🙂
November 8th, 2007 at 12:54 pm
the PI definitely knows nothing about your softball team. 🙂
November 8th, 2007 at 1:21 pm
btw...Holy Salami! Ron Cey's perfect grand slam was a GAME-TYING grand slam. The Philles had scored 4 in the top of the 1st, and Ron Reed couldn't protect his 4 run lead against the Dodgers in the bottom of the 1st. Reed did win the game eventually though.
November 8th, 2007 at 1:37 pm
Hahaha Todd Zeile batted cleanup.
Yes, please post on the probability of outcomes. Is that something you can do with the PI, or do you need more sophisticated analysis?
November 8th, 2007 at 1:51 pm
Tune in tomorrow. You can learn a lot with the PI.
November 20th, 2007 at 11:40 pm
Its happened once in post-season history
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CLE/CLE192010100.shtml