Starters Who Don’t Go Post To Post
Posted by Steve Lombardi on November 20, 2009
Recently, I was involved in some debate about Rich Harden. On one side, the case was being made that he might/should be a pitcher that teams should look to acquire for 2010. And, the point on my side was that he cannot be counted on to give you a regular turn for a full season - despite how well he may pitch when he does take toe to the rubber.
And, this whole thing got me wondering: Which starting pitchers were the ones that you could least rely on to give you a full season of taking a regular turn?
This is where Baseball-Reference.com's Play Index Pitching Season finder comes in handy. Using it, and setting the filters for "For single seasons, From 1901 to 2009, (requiring GS>=5, IP<=150, GS<=25 and At least 100% games started), sorted by greatest Seasons matching criteria" for each league, I came up with these lists:
| Rk | Yrs | To | From | Age | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aaron Sele | 5 | 1993 | 2005 | 23-35 | |
| 2 | Jason Bere | 5 | 1993 | 2000 | 22-29 | |
| 3 | Juan Guzman | 5 | 1991 | 1999 | 24-32 | |
| 4 | Mark Langston | 5 | 1985 | 1997 | 24-36 | |
| 5 | Mike Flanagan | 5 | 1981 | 1990 | 29-38 | |
| 6 | Chan Ho Park | 4 | 2002 | 2005 | 29-32 | |
| 7 | Bartolo Colon | 4 | 2002 | 2009 | 29-36 | |
| 8 | Sidney Ponson | 4 | 2001 | 2007 | 24-30 | |
| 9 | Jaret Wright | 4 | 1997 | 2005 | 21-29 | |
| 10 | David Wells | 4 | 1994 | 2006 | 31-43 | |
| 11 | Arthur Rhodes | 4 | 1991 | 1994 | 21-24 | |
| 12 | Mark Gubicza | 4 | 1990 | 1996 | 27-33 | |
| 13 | Oil Can Boyd | 4 | 1987 | 1991 | 27-31 |
| Rk | Yrs | To | From | Age | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sid Fernandez | 5 | 1984 | 1996 | 21-33 | |
| 2 | Pedro Martinez | 4 | 2006 | 2009 | 34-37 | |
| 3 | Randy Wolf | 4 | 2004 | 2007 | 27-30 | |
| 4 | Oliver Perez | 4 | 2003 | 2009 | 21-27 | |
| 5 | Shawn Chacon | 4 | 2002 | 2008 | 24-30 | |
| 6 | Tony Armas | 4 | 2000 | 2005 | 22-27 | |
| 7 | Donovan Osborne | 4 | 1995 | 1999 | 26-30 | |
| 8 | Armando Reynoso | 4 | 1994 | 2001 | 28-35 | |
| 9 | Mike Morgan | 4 | 1994 | 1998 | 34-38 | |
| 10 | Pete Harnisch | 4 | 1994 | 2001 | 27-34 | |
| 11 | Pedro Astacio | 4 | 1992 | 2006 | 22-36 |
Granted, this is far from being very scientific. It doesn't really factor in partial seasons that are the result of a pitcher breaking into the major leagues, for example. But, it's a nice, fun, quick way to look at this question.
It's interesting to see names here that you would expect - like Aaron Sele, Jason Bere, Juan Guzman, Sid Fernandez and Randy Wolf.
It's worth noting that Pedro Martinez makes the N.L. list because of his seasons from 2006 through 2009. Clearly, the Red Sox made the right call after the 2004 season by letting him go elsewhere.
In fact, many of the leaders on these lists had these types of seasons come towards the end of their career.
The one thing, above all others, that stands out to me here is that it's such a "modern" event to have pitchers post these types of seasons. You don't see any names on these leader boards of guys who pitched before 1984.
November 20th, 2009 at 10:04 am
That's partly because the strict separation of starter and reliever is a relatively recent phenomenon. Even ace starters used to make a few relief appearances during the season.
November 20th, 2009 at 11:59 am
I realize that you already identified some of the shortcomings of this analysis. Let me make a case in point. For Juan Guzman, the five 'guilty' years were '91 (June rookie call-up), '94 (strike-shortened - 25 starts), '95 (strike-shortened - 24 starts), '97 (legitimate) and, I'm guessing, '98 or '99, during which he made <25 starts for two different teams each season, but totaled 33 GS in each. That would leave him with only one season that really met your intention. Twelve others on the list also pitched during strike-shortened seasons.
November 20th, 2009 at 12:42 pm
1995 was not shortened that much (144 games). 24 starts is not a full season. Good catch on the split seasons.
Steve, when you post your tables in those frames, if I try to click on a player, his page opens in the frame, meaning it's impossible to read. Can you post the tables however you used to do it, or how the others are doing it?
November 20th, 2009 at 12:51 pm
With so much league-switching these days, it would be interesting to see if any new names are added by doing a combination list.
November 20th, 2009 at 1:13 pm
Man I hope Matt Holliday does not get a Teixeira level contract. If you look at basic OPS similarity:
- Holliday, career at Coors Field, is Pujols, Gehrig, Foxx, Barry Bonds, and Ted Williams.
- Holliday, career everywhere else, is Soriano, Puckett, Eddie Murray, Bichette and Victor Martinez.
November 20th, 2009 at 3:01 pm
So, only a 40% chance of becoming a HOFer?
November 20th, 2009 at 4:44 pm
The norm in baseball these days is to overpay the best-available free agents regardless of how good they actually are. Most teams subscribe to this. Holliday will get a really large contract.
November 21st, 2009 at 9:54 am
Just wanted to say thanks for all the good reaction/input to this one. Good stuff and appreciated.
@JohnnyTwisto - duly noted. No more i-frames - I promise. 😉
November 22nd, 2009 at 1:42 am
Nice topic. Until this year, yankees fans know all about unreliable starting pitching!