Best free agent this winter?
Posted by Andy on November 4, 2009
While I'm still captivated by the World Series that's going on, anybody who isn't is already thinking about this year's crop of free agents.
(As an aside, how could you not be captivated by tonight's game? One of two things is likely: the Yankees might beat Pedro to win the World Series or Pedro might beat the Yankees to push the series to a seventh and final game...how could you NOT tune in?)
Anyway, it's a pretty thin class for this year's free agents. We'll get into it more during the off-season, but I caught wind of an interesting fact pointed out by an agent. Can you name the only 3 players to have 4 seasons with 30+ HR, 100+ RBI and 100+ runs over the period 2005-2009?
I'll spot you the first two--Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez. Can you name the third? Answer is below...
From To Ages Seasons Link to Individual Seasons +-----------------+----+----+-----+-------+------------------------------+ Alex Rodriguez 2005 2008 29-32 4 Ind. Seasons Albert Pujols 2005 2009 25-29 4 Ind. Seasons Jason Bay 2005 2009 26-30 4 Ind. Seasons Ryan Howard 2006 2009 26-29 3 Ind. Seasons Mark Teixeira 2005 2009 25-29 3 Ind. Seasons David Ortiz 2005 2007 29-31 3 Ind. Seasons David Wright 2007 2008 24-25 2 Ind. Seasons Adrian Gonzalez 2007 2008 25-26 2 Ind. Seasons Prince Fielder 2007 2009 23-25 2 Ind. Seasons Chase Utley 2006 2008 27-29 2 Ind. Seasons Matt Holliday 2006 2007 26-27 2 Ind. Seasons Manny Ramirez 2005 2008 33-36 2 Ind. Seasons Adam Dunn 2005 2007 25-27 2 Ind. Seasons
The answer is Jason Bay, who is probably also the answer to "Which offensive free-agent is most deserving of a long-term contract?"
Unsurprisingly, it's the 100+ runs scored that is tough for this list. Lots of guys hit 30 HR and drive in 100 RBI but only a fairly small number of them also score 100 runs. If we remove the runs scored criterion, here are the guys with at least 2 seasons of 30+ HR and 100+ RBI over the last 5 seasons:
From To Ages Seasons Link to Individual Seasons +-----------------+----+----+-----+-------+------------------------------+ Mark Teixeira 2005 2009 25-29 5 Ind. Seasons Alex Rodriguez 2005 2009 29-33 5 Ind. Seasons Albert Pujols 2005 2009 25-29 5 Ind. Seasons Ryan Howard 2006 2009 26-29 4 Ind. Seasons Adam Dunn 2005 2009 25-29 4 Ind. Seasons Miguel Cabrera 2005 2009 22-26 4 Ind. Seasons Jason Bay 2005 2009 26-30 4 Ind. Seasons Carlos Pena 2007 2009 29-31 3 Ind. Seasons Prince Fielder 2007 2009 23-25 3 Ind. Seasons Justin Morneau 2006 2009 25-28 3 Ind. Seasons Manny Ramirez 2005 2008 33-36 3 Ind. Seasons David Ortiz 2005 2007 29-31 3 Ind. Seasons Carlos Lee 2005 2007 29-31 3 Ind. Seasons Carlos Delgado 2005 2008 33-36 3 Ind. Seasons Ryan Braun 2008 2009 24-25 2 Ind. Seasons David Wright 2007 2008 24-25 2 Ind. Seasons Adrian Gonzalez 2007 2008 25-26 2 Ind. Seasons Chase Utley 2006 2008 27-29 2 Ind. Seasons Matt Holliday 2006 2007 26-27 2 Ind. Seasons Lance Berkman 2006 2007 30-31 2 Ind. Seasons Carlos Beltran 2006 2007 29-30 2 Ind. Seasons Richie Sexson 2005 2006 30-31 2 Ind. Seasons Derrek Lee 2005 2009 29-33 2 Ind. Seasons Paul Konerko 2005 2006 29-30 2 Ind. Seasons Andruw Jones 2005 2006 28-29 2 Ind. Seasons +-----------------+----+----+-----+-------+------------------------------+ From To Ages Seasons Link to Individual Seasons +-----------------+----+----+-----+-------+------------------------------+ Travis Hafner 2005 2006 28-29 2 Ind. Seasons Vladimir Guerrero 2005 2006 30-31 2 Ind. Seasons
Runs scored is a stat that, for sluggers in particular, depends so much on what the rest of their team does. While OBP matters most and directly correlates to scoring runs, it's also true that the guys behind you have to hit for you to score runs. This makes it even more surprising that Bay makes the first list above, given that he played a few of those years in Pittsburgh on some bad teams.
Bay is not in the class of A-rod or Pujols but he's certainly a great player. More importantly, he's the best free agent out there, only 30 years old, and just had a great season (his best, by some measures.) He's going to get a monster contract from somebody, most likely the Red Sox or the Yankees.
November 4th, 2009 at 3:22 pm
I think Holliday is probably a better bet than Bay. Bay actually just turned 31. Holliday is about 15 months younger, seems to be a better defender, and seems to have similar offensive value. I think Bay also had some knee problems in his bad 2007 -- could those crop up again? I guess the issue some will have is that Bay has "proven" he can hit in the AL while Holliday has not, but I think that is overblown. After a slow start, Holliday was hitting pretty well before he got traded to StL.
November 4th, 2009 at 3:25 pm
One really has to wonder what happened to Holliday in Oakland. Whether it was the team, the manager, the opposing pitching, or a personal problem, SOMETHING got to Holliday. The only explanation I could accept without dropping him a notch or two would be an injury, and that seems a little too coincidental to cover just his exact time with the A's.
I rank Bay as the better long-term bet.
November 4th, 2009 at 8:44 pm
Andy-
What about the AL-NL divide? Holliday was good in the NL and bad in the AL. Obviously, sample-size is an issue to some extent, but given the other evidence of the talent-gap between the league, you'd have to be weary if you are an AL club, especially if you are looking at Holliday as the cornerstone of your offense.
November 4th, 2009 at 8:47 pm
I don't buy that the divide is that large. Dozens of players switch leagues every year and there is no pattern that supports the drastic difference in Holliday's performance. A few percentage points, yes maybe, but not what actually happened.
November 4th, 2009 at 11:20 pm
You're overstating how "badly" he played in Oakland. Basically, he struggled for the first 6 weeks. From May 17 until he got traded July 23, he had a .900 OPS. Overall he was at a 125 OPS+. Maybe he was just adjusting to the new league, maybe it was a shock to go from the best hitting park in the majors to one of the worst, maybe it was just a slump, like every player has at some point. Had he remained in Oakland all season, I think his final numbers would have looked pretty similar to what one would expect based on his Colorado performance, after accounting for league and park differences.
November 4th, 2009 at 11:23 pm
Hmm, tough to argue that given his 125 OPS+...I did not realize he had recovered to that extent while still with OAK. I guess his bad start coupled with his awesome start with STL fooled me a bit.
November 4th, 2009 at 11:24 pm
Also, if you don't think the league difference is that great, then why would you be wary of him? He torched the ball in St. Louis. His total season numbers are right in line with any reasonable preseason projection, and he should be projected along those lines for next year as well.
November 4th, 2009 at 11:25 pm
Same admission as I made in #6 above applies to your #7 question.
November 4th, 2009 at 11:54 pm
Yeah, I didn't see it before I posted.
YANKEES WIN! THUUUUUHHUHUHUHUHUHUHUHUHUHHHH YANKEES WIN!!!!!!!
November 4th, 2009 at 11:57 pm
Win what? Did I miss something? 🙂