NLCS pitching
Posted by Andy on October 15, 2009
Some tidbits about the Phillies and Dodgers pitching:
First, check out this table for relief pitching in 2009 (regular season):
Rk | G ▾ | SV | IP | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | WSN | 5.09 | 532 | 33 | 523.0 |
2 | FLA | 3.89 | 530 | 45 | 543.1 |
3 | SDP | 3.75 | 528 | 45 | 571.2 |
4 | LAD | 3.14 | 526 | 44 | 553.0 |
5 | MIL | 3.97 | 512 | 44 | 544.0 |
6 | NYM | 3.89 | 511 | 39 | 501.2 |
7 | TBR | 3.98 | 510 | 41 | 457.1 |
8 | HOU | 4.13 | 497 | 39 | 534.1 |
9 | ATL | 3.68 | 489 | 38 | 476.2 |
10 | OAK | 3.54 | 488 | 38 | 559.1 |
11 | BAL | 4.83 | 484 | 31 | 551.1 |
12 | COL | 4.53 | 484 | 45 | 467.0 |
13 | ARI | 4.61 | 483 | 36 | 480.0 |
14 | STL | 3.67 | 481 | 43 | 437.0 |
15 | CHC | 4.11 | 480 | 40 | 484.1 |
16 | MIN | 3.87 | 480 | 48 | 518.1 |
17 | CIN | 3.56 | 478 | 41 | 495.2 |
18 | BOS | 3.80 | 463 | 41 | 479.0 |
19 | NYY | 3.91 | 461 | 51 | 515.0 |
20 | PHI | 3.91 | 459 | 43 | 492.0 |
21 | SFG | 3.49 | 457 | 41 | 461.0 |
22 | PIT | 4.61 | 456 | 28 | 466.1 |
23 | CLE | 4.66 | 445 | 25 | 519.0 |
24 | TOR | 4.08 | 445 | 25 | 487.0 |
25 | DET | 4.34 | 439 | 42 | 491.0 |
26 | TEX | 3.95 | 436 | 45 | 485.0 |
27 | LAA | 4.49 | 434 | 51 | 483.1 |
28 | KCR | 5.02 | 426 | 34 | 477.0 |
29 | CHW | 4.06 | 415 | 36 | 469.2 |
30 | SEA | 3.83 | 410 | 49 | 491.1 |
TOT | 4.08 | 14239 | 1201 | 15014.2 |
Dodgers relievers appeared in the 4th most games this year, which is pretty odd for a playoff team. The Phillies' relievers made 67 fewer appearances than the Dodgers' and all the other playoff teams are well below the Dodgers as well. (Rockies are 12th, Cardinals are 14th, Twins are 16th, Red Sox 18th, Yankees 19th, and Angels 27th.)
When I think about how-off playoff teams are, I always look at the bullpen status. These guys get tired and can often be less effective in the playoffs than they were in the regular season.
Now here are the save stats for the 2009 regular season:
Tm | SVOpp | SV | BSv | SV% ▾ |
---|---|---|---|---|
TEX | 58 | 45 | 13 | 78% |
CIN | 53 | 41 | 12 | 77% |
NYY | 67 | 51 | 16 | 76% |
STL | 57 | 43 | 14 | 75% |
OAK | 51 | 38 | 13 | 75% |
MIN | 64 | 48 | 16 | 75% |
COL | 61 | 45 | 16 | 74% |
LAA | 70 | 51 | 19 | 73% |
SFG | 58 | 41 | 17 | 71% |
CHC | 58 | 40 | 18 | 69% |
BOS | 59 | 41 | 18 | 69% |
PHI | 65 | 44 | 22 | 68% |
LgAvg | 60 | 40 | 20 | 67% |
CHW | 54 | 36 | 18 | 67% |
SDP | 68 | 45 | 23 | 66% |
MIL | 67 | 44 | 23 | 66% |
TBR | 63 | 41 | 22 | 65% |
NYM | 60 | 39 | 21 | 65% |
FLA | 69 | 45 | 24 | 65% |
ARI | 55 | 36 | 19 | 65% |
SEA | 77 | 49 | 28 | 64% |
DET | 66 | 42 | 24 | 64% |
LAD | 70 | 44 | 26 | 63% |
ATL | 60 | 38 | 22 | 63% |
PIT | 45 | 28 | 17 | 62% |
TOR | 41 | 25 | 16 | 61% |
KCR | 56 | 34 | 22 | 61% |
HOU | 66 | 39 | 27 | 59% |
CLE | 43 | 25 | 18 | 58% |
BAL | 53 | 31 | 22 | 58% |
WSN | 58 | 33 | 25 | 57% |
1792 | 1202 | 591 | 67% | |
Tm | SVOpp | SV | BSv |
Much has been made of Brad Lidge's poor performance (and Ryan Madson's bad stint as closer in Lidge's absence) but the Phillies ended up about average in save conversion percentage. It was the Dodgers' 26 blown saves that was 3rd most in baseball. Again notice that the 6 other playoff teams are all above average. (This isn't too surprising...if a team blows a lot of saves, it's hard to get a lot of wins and make the playoffs...therefore playoff teams should, on average, have fewer blown saves.)
I also wanted to point out something that happened in the Phillies-Rockies NLDS that shows why the National League is so much more interesting.
In the bottom of the 7th inning of Game 4 Raul Ibanez made a huge error, dropping a fly ball (lost in the lights) and allowing Seth Smith to reach second base. At the time, the Phillies were up by 1 run with one out in the inning.
Why would I label this error as huge? The Rockies ended up not scoring in the inning and the error seemed to have no effect on the game. But...it did. After Clint Barmes flied out for the second out, pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez's spot came up in the lineup. With the tying run on second base, Jim Tracy had no option but to pinch hit for Jimenez. Ryan Spilborghs made out, but nobody would argue with Tracy's decision.
Up to that point, Jimenez had pitched very well, allowing just 6 hits and 2 walks in 7 innings while striking out 7. The runs came on two gopher balls.
In the 8th inning, the Phillies nearly scored off the Rockies' bullpen. Perhaps if Jimenez had still been pitching, he would have breezed through another inning, saving the Rockies' relief pitchers for the 9th. Instead, they used up guys because they had to.
Weirdly, Ibanez's two-base error actually seems to have helped the Phillies win the game! Isn't it amazing how an error by one team's fielder can get the other team's pitcher out of the game? This is the beauty of the National League and makes NL games so much more interesting than AL games.
All of this is a long-winded way of saying two things:
- In the NLCS, keep your eye on when each manager decides to lift the starting pitcher, especially if you are a relatively new fan of baseball. It's one of the most fascinating things about the National League playoffs.
- The designated hitter concept really stinks, in my opinion. We've had some great DHs over the years, but personally I feel it's time to get rid of it. The MLB players union does not want to allow this as it would cost roster spots for players who fit only as DHs, such as David Ortiz, Hideki Matsui, Jim Thome, etc. In my opinion, the DH should be eliminated, effective in 2014. This would give teams 5 years to change their rosters, etc, to compensate for the coming change.
October 15th, 2009 at 9:16 am
Can anyone incorporate further information about 'game result' here? That would show how many times a team overcame a blown save and still won the game. I'm guessing the rankings would change a little.
October 15th, 2009 at 9:24 am
Good call, JDV.
See here:
http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/kbzek
Those are the games in 2009 in which the team won but also had a blown save. The Dodgers had a whopping 15 such games!!! The last time a team had such a high total was in 2003 by the Reds.
October 15th, 2009 at 10:12 am
I'd guess there is a correlation between the Dodgers using so many relievers and having so many blown saves. Presumably they were bringing relievers into games earlier. Any close leads they then lost are considered blown saves, whereas if the starter remained in the game for another inning and lost the lead himself, it would not be a blown save.
Sure enough, you can see here the Dodgers were below average in innings per start. (I hope this works...)
Tm IP/GS ▾
STL 6.2
SFG 6.1
ATL 6.1
TOR 6.0
TBR 6.0
COL 6.0
CHW 6.0
CHC 6.0
ARI 6.0
TEX 5.9
SEA 5.9
PIT 5.9
PHI 5.9
LAA 5.9
KCR 5.9
DET 5.9
CIN 5.9
BOS 5.9
LgAvg 5.8
NYY 5.8
NYM 5.7
MIN 5.7
LAD 5.7
WSN 5.6
FLA 5.6
CLE 5.6
OAK 5.5
MIL 5.5
HOU 5.5
SDP 5.4
BAL 5.4
Tm IP/GS
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/15/2009.
October 15th, 2009 at 10:14 am
Sorry that's not very legible. I tried to "SHARE" by entering the table code, but it wouldn't post, presumably because it had too many links, so I just copied and pasted. What is the best way to put these tables in our comments, if you know?
October 15th, 2009 at 6:02 pm
I don't think any of Brad Lidge's 11 blown saves this year came in a Phillies win. For one thing, almost all of them (something like 9 or 10 of them) came in road games, which probably resulted in walk-off wins. While it's true that a blown save in a road game may just tie the game, and bring on extra innings, Lidge seemed to be especially bad in giving up multiple runs in each save.
Someone has already pointed out that a lot of blown saves are by pitchers who come into the game before the ninth inning, who aren't the actual "closers" for their teams. At such a point, there's still enough time for their own team to take back the lead and hold onto it (or walk off with it).
When a closer blows a save in the 9th, all is still not lost if it was the home team's closer doing this in the top of the inning or if the immediate result is a tie ballgame heading for extra innings. The momentum change may be tough to overcome, but I've seen teams recover from this and still win later.
A road team's pitcher may also get a chance to pick up a save in the bottom half of an extra inning, and the same things I've said above apply here regarding a game that has become tied again.