Bloops: The Uncertainty of Run Estimators
Posted by Neil Paine on September 4, 2009
From Hardball Times, it's the always-informative Colin Wyers with a couple of articles presenting a method of putting error bars on a player's "runs created"-type metric. One major complaint about sabermetrics has been the almost false sense of accuracy it projects in estimators of player value -- some people calculate Runs Created out to a tenth of a run, for instance, as though there's some sort of scientific significance there -- so it's always interesting to look at just how much noise there really is in these player value metrics.