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Bloops: The Uncertainty of Run Estimators

Posted by Neil Paine on September 4, 2009

From Hardball Times, it's the always-informative Colin Wyers with a couple of articles presenting a method of putting error bars on a player's "runs created"-type metric. One major complaint about sabermetrics has been the almost false sense of accuracy it projects in estimators of player value -- some people calculate Runs Created out to a tenth of a run, for instance, as though there's some sort of scientific significance there -- so it's always interesting to look at just how much noise there really is in these player value metrics.

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