What worries me about Ryan Howard
Posted by Andy on August 27, 2009
At the end of last season, I wrote a post worrying about Ryan Howard's declining offensive performance. When a guy is hitting over 40 HR and driving in more than 130 runs, it can be easy to miss the fact that his OPS drops more than 200 points over 2 seasons (from 2006 to 2008.)
Check out the worst OPS+ values for 45 HR seasons:
Cnt Player **OPS+** HR Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS Positions +----+-----------------+--------+--+----+---+---+--+---+---+---+---+---+--+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+-----+-----+-----+-----+---------+ 1 Jose Canseco 113 46 1998 33 TOR AL 151 658 583 98 138 26 0 107 65 5 159 6 0 4 7 29 17 .237 .318 .518 .836 *D79 2 Greg Vaughn 117 45 1999 33 CIN NL 153 643 550 104 135 20 2 118 85 3 137 3 0 5 9 15 2 .245 .347 .535 .882 *7/D 3 Ryan Howard 124 48 2008 28 PHI NL 162 700 610 105 153 26 4 146 81 17 199 3 0 6 11 1 1 .251 .339 .543 .882 *3/D 4 Richie Sexson 127 45 2001 26 MIL NL 158 667 598 94 162 24 3 125 60 5 178 6 0 3 20 2 4 .271 .342 .547 .889 *3 5 Vinny Castilla 127 46 1998 30 COL NL 162 697 645 108 206 28 4 144 40 7 89 6 0 6 24 5 9 .319 .362 .589 .951 *5/6
His 2008 performance is among the worst of the 113 different 45+ HR seasons in history, at least when rated by OPS+.
Of the 9 guys with at least 30 HR so far this season, he's near the bottom of the pack:
Cnt Player **OPS+** HR Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS Positions +----+-----------------+--------+--+----+---+---+--+---+---+---+---+---+--+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+-----+-----+-----+-----+---------+ 1 Carlos Pena 125 35 2009 31 TBR AL 122 518 425 81 94 22 2 87 81 10 149 9 0 3 5 2 3 .221 .355 .529 .884 *3 2 Russell Branyan 127 30 2009 33 SEA AL 112 491 419 61 105 21 1 75 56 6 144 9 1 6 6 2 0 .251 .347 .520 .867 *3 3 Ryan Howard 131 34 2009 29 PHI NL 121 537 471 81 126 27 3 104 57 3 150 4 0 5 9 5 0 .268 .348 .554 .902 *3/D 4 Mark Reynolds 142 38 2009 25 ARI NL 121 518 452 81 127 25 1 84 61 3 170 4 0 1 7 21 7 .281 .371 .593 .964 *53 5 Mark Teixeira 143 31 2009 29 NYY AL 120 551 473 76 136 34 0 93 67 7 85 9 0 2 10 2 0 .288 .385 .556 .941 *3/D 6 Adam Dunn 160 33 2009 29 WSN NL 124 524 423 66 121 26 0 89 95 14 138 4 0 2 8 0 1 .286 .420 .582 1.002 *739/D 7 Adrian Gonzalez 162 33 2009 27 SDP NL 125 531 434 71 118 21 1 74 93 18 87 2 0 2 20 1 1 .272 .401 .553 .954 *3/D 8 Prince Fielder 163 33 2009 25 MIL NL 124 548 450 77 137 27 2 110 83 14 106 8 0 7 11 2 3 .304 .416 .593 1.009 *3 9 Albert Pujols 188 40 2009 29 STL NL 124 542 436 98 138 30 1 106 94 37 54 7 0 5 20 12 4 .317 .441 .665 1.106 *3/D
Of course, he's way up there in RBI. The real issue is that he's not drawing walks, and a lot of that may be due to Jayson Werth usually hitting behind him. Also Raul Ibanez has had a terrible August and that doesn't help any.
Howard's walk totals have dwindled over the last 4 seasons, from 108 and 107 in 2006 and 2007, down to 81 in 2008 (in more games) and projecting to fewer than 80 this year. You can see this trend in his BB% right here. Of note is that his walk dropoff seems to be due mainly to fewer intentional walks, going 37, 35, 17, and just 3 this year.
Anyway, this is the second straight year that Howard will finish with monster HR and RBI numbers but an OPS+ under 140 (although he's historically had massive Septembers, especially last year with 11 HR and 32 RBI.)
Let's see if he has his huge September again and pushes those averages up. Otherwise, I fear that the gap between Howard and Albert Pujols is going to widen over the coming years.
August 27th, 2009 at 9:14 am
I wrote this post 2 days ago...doesn't help that the guy hit a 3-run HR in the 10th inning last night...
August 27th, 2009 at 9:26 am
This oversimplifies, but Howard is this generation's Dave Kingman. Either a home run or a K. Kingman did strike out less often, and Howard is more productive, but I wouldn't want either one of them in my lineup.
August 27th, 2009 at 10:32 am
Howard has an OPS+ of 141, compared to Kingman's 115.
Howard had an .881 OPS last year in his worst season so far. Kingman topped that figure just once in his 15 full seasons. (His career OPS is .780.)
Howard is no Babe Ruth, but he is by no means this generation's Dave Kingman.
August 27th, 2009 at 10:49 am
Well, in last year's case, that did have a lot to do with him just being snake-bit and highly unlucky. But his high walk seasons were undoubtedly due to his IBB count, which was crazy high. And he's at his peak speed, which isn't worth a ton, but it should go without saying that being able turn a single into a double is a great skill.
His obvious biggest problem is hitting against lefties, who eat him alive. He has gotten progressively worse against them every season, and is seeing more and more PAs against them. He desperately needs to figure them out.
August 27th, 2009 at 11:16 am
Yeah, Ebessan hit on it. His unintentional walk rate has only ranged from about 9 to 11%, and is about 10% this season, so he's not really walking any less (especially if you consider that when he drew a ton of IBB, many of his UIBB were likely semi-intentional). That's a flaw of OBP (and by extension OPS+), because those walks do not lead to as many runs as a "normal" walk but are counted the same.
That said, it seems obvious that '06 was his career year. He's not really a .300 hitter; he strikes out far too much, and as a .260 hitter he is still productive but not quite Albert Pujols.
August 27th, 2009 at 12:33 pm
I guess the Devil Rays were impressed with players on the over 45 home runs list. They signed three of the five players (Canceco, Castilla & Vaughn) a season or two after they posted their low OPS numbers. So much for the "Bay Bombers".
Jack
August 28th, 2009 at 8:51 pm
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