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I tend to agree, BSK. You have to figure Girardi will have a quick hook tonight and be prepared to empty out the bullpen, given that the Yanks must win if they wish to play on.
By the way, I have absolutely loved seeing this series get played on 4 consecutive days...I wish all the playoffs were like this. It's so much more interesting, and resembles the regular season much better.
Co-sign on the 4 games in 4 days nature of the series, Andy. As you said, it's almost like watching REAL baseball!
I wonder what Girardi does if AJ is on the verge of blowing up, but hasn't done so yet. Suppose it's 1-0 Tigers in the 6th and both pitchers are humming. But AJ suddenly loses it and loads the bases with no outs. Do you yank him before more damage can be done? It will be interesting to see how Girardi handles this game, both from a strategic perspective but also an emotional one (both his and Burnett's).
@Andy #2, I agree I love how this series has played out like it is during the regular season, back-to-back-to-back. But I am not going to get to used to it because I imagine (Haven't looked at the CS and WS schedule) that there will be enough days off to drag on for about 2.5 weeks.
Help! How's the weather in Detroit? Any chance of a rain out? Rioting? Power failure?
@BSK: If Burnett gets to the 6th with only allowing one run, for Girardi to keep him in would be like giving a big FU to the gods of baseball after they answered your prayers. But there is probably no choice. Who would Girardi put in? Rivera has only gone over one inning a few times this season. Roberts not much more.
If you list every unexpected outcome this year you could go forever. I make no bets. I don't have s problem pitching Burnett. Yankees signed him to mega bucks to be dominant. This is what he is supposed to do. Let him do it. Success or failure.
5 runs in 4 innings. My guess is that he gaves up a couple of runs in the first 2 innings an then gets into big truble when faces the Tigers lineup for the second time, maybe he inherits a runner or two and the score afterwards.
By the way, Andy, I completely agree with you. Love watching those games on consecutive nights.
In the 2009 postseason, Burnett had five starts with the following Game Scores: 63, 61, 32, 72, 22. I think that Good A.J. will make a rare appearance tonight, deliver another 60+ Game Score, and then fade back into the mystical unknown. He's like a unicorn. Even if A.J. blows it, the Yankees have a pretty good chance in this game. Porcello is not a good pitcher.
Without thinking I went with 2 innings and 7 plus runs but now that I read the comments and take a moment to reflect I'm sure that the rational that Girardi will have him on a short leash is correct since it's win or go home...
The Yankees have not lost this game with their rotation but rather their bullpen.
After tying game 3 they put in Soriano? Does anyone who has watched this team all year believe that Soriano should have been trusted with such a critical moment? I would have left the 7th, 8th, and 9th to a combination of Robertson and Rivera.
So through the first three games, Mariano Rivera has thrown exactly three pitches. And he threw them in a game that was in hand.
This is the 2003 Marlins series all over again.
I do not have high hopes with AJ on the mound tonight... But hey, even a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then.
I just can't believe that Girardi is throwing this game away. It's the season on the line, and he marches AJ "6.28 road ERA" Burnett out to the mound?!? Or maybe I should nickname him AJ "career 7.17 ERA at Comerica" Burnett. I'm sorry but this guy is much better when pitching in Yankee Stadium. Save him for the home games.
It's such a horrible decision that I almost think there's a fix on this series... like the big whigs of MLB want to ensure Verlander goes deep into the playoffs. I know, that's a very unlikely conspiracy, but it keeps crossing my mind 'cause the decision is that insane.
With about 150 votes in each poll, I put the results into Excel to get the weighted predictions. The consensus is that AJ will allow 4 ER in 4.2 IP. Rather pessimistic. Will be interesting to see how well the Brefren have predicted reality.
(In the second poll, the last choice is 7+ ER. In the past 10 years, only one SP has allowed as many as 7 ER in a sudden death start. So rather than fudge the numbers for the chance that some are predicting Burnett could allow 8, 9, 10+ runs, I just counted all the 7+ votes as exactly 7.)
I just can't believe that Girardi is throwing this game away. It's the season on the line, and he marches AJ "6.28 road ERA" Burnett out to the mound?!? Or maybe I should nickname him AJ "career 7.17 ERA at Comerica" Burnett. I'm sorry but this guy is much better when pitching in Yankee Stadium. Save him for the home games.
Who would you start tonight?
Burnett isn't a guy they "save." He's a guy they're only using because they feel forced into it by the changed schedule. They don't have the option of waiting for home games, since they have to win the road game before they get to play at home again.
I'd use anybody else, because anybody will do better than Burnett on the road. Colon hasn't pitched this series yet. I'd even consider giving Logan a spot start. I think either of them would do better in Comerica tonight than Burnett. Burnett is downright awful on the road and pretty much guarantees a Yankees loss. You just can't do worse than Burnett in a must-win situation against a playoff team.
Colon has a 3.45 road ERA. He's been in playoff pressure games before, so he understands the nerves. He may not be what it was a few years ago, but he still isn't AJ Burnett. Then you can save Burnett for the next game... which is in Yankee stadium.
Next thing you know, the Tigers will be starting Brad Penny in game 5. I have no idea how this guy managed to win 10 games during the season. Porcello could win tonight if he gets run support but he's not a whole lot better than Penny. If it were me, I'd only pitch Verlander and Fister. Scherzer's win was a huge surprise.
Burnett will surprise many people by going six innings and allowing one earned run. If the Yanks have a big lead and the pitch count is reasonable, Girardi might send him out for the 7th to bridge to Robertson and Rivera.
Nova would pitch game 5. Burnett was not supposed to start at all.
How does the suspended game change anything? Whether they started over on Saturday or not, they'd be in the same situation.
Colon is not what he was in mid-season. He's lost about 5 mph on his fastball. I was surprised he was left off the roster as well, but the team felt Burnett would adjust to the pen better.
Start Logan? What's he going to give them, maybe 2 innings, and it would be almost entirely against righties? They could try Hughes, though he hasn't started a game in 3 weeks.
Burnett will surprise many people by going six innings and allowing one earned run. If the Yanks have a big lead and the pitch count is reasonable, Girardi might send him out for the 7th to bridge to Robertson and Rivera.
I wouldn't be shocked if he goes 6 strong. If he comes back out for the 7th, it's a terrible decision, even if he's only thrown 19 pitches.
Sorry for being unclear in #28, which was partially in response to #24's comment about suspended games. Obviously the game 1 rain has changed things. My point was that whether they re-started game 1 on Saturday in the 1st inning, or the bottom of the 2nd as they did, the Yankees would be in the same position now, having lost an off-day on Sunday.
Roy Halladay, Ian Kennedy, Cliff Lee, CJ Wilson, Doug Fister, CC Sabathia, James Shields, Chris Carpenter, and Justin Verlander have put up a combined LDS ERA around 6.80 - 7.00 if I did my math right. Since apparently the postseason is the Bizarro version of the regular season, I have Burnett going 7 innings, 1 earned run, because why the hell not.
I'm assuming Soriano won't be available tonight. Ayala has struggled in the series, which leaves Hughes, Wade and Logan before getting to Robertson and Rivera.
If Burnett does indeed go 6 strong innings, would you use Hughes or Wade if the due lineup was right-handed, with Logan available for use against a lefty? Or would you consider Ayala despite his ineffectiveness in 2 appearances? Or would you go straight to Robertson and try to get 3 innings out of him and Rivera?
I realize that a lot depends on the score and the matchups, but in a win or go home game like this, do you think it makes sense to go straight to your 2 best options?
@44. As Burnett should have had a quick hook. Listen, I am happy that Yanks won and I thought he did a good job. However, if Granderson doesn't make that catch, the Yanks are down 3-0 and based on what he has done all year, AJ would just have gotten worse.
October 4th, 2011 at 1:35 pm
I went with 3 and 3. Just a hunch. I think Burnett gets in trouble in the 4th and gets yanked, even if the damage hasn't been catastraophic.
October 4th, 2011 at 1:39 pm
I tend to agree, BSK. You have to figure Girardi will have a quick hook tonight and be prepared to empty out the bullpen, given that the Yanks must win if they wish to play on.
By the way, I have absolutely loved seeing this series get played on 4 consecutive days...I wish all the playoffs were like this. It's so much more interesting, and resembles the regular season much better.
October 4th, 2011 at 1:52 pm
The silver lining for New York is that Rick Porcello really isn't any better than A.J.
I'd be surprised if either one goes past the 5th.
October 4th, 2011 at 1:53 pm
True dat, but the Yanks made Scherzer look like Pedro.
October 4th, 2011 at 1:57 pm
Four and three. No way Girardi leaves Burnett in to give up more than three runs, even if the Yanks are running away with the game.
October 4th, 2011 at 2:05 pm
Oh crap. Isn't this a best of five series? Yankees lose tonight, it's over, yes?
The Yankees are putting this into Burnett's hands? Holy mother of gawd, Jesus, Mary, and Baby Jesus. My grandfather must be rolling over in his grave.
How can this guy have an ERA+ of 86 and a WAR of 1.1? Somebody needs to check that calculation.
I guess they don't have a choice. Ugh. Wait 'til next year. It's fine. Yankees have won enough pennants. Give somebody else an opportunity.
I voted 4 innings and 6 runs.
October 4th, 2011 at 2:11 pm
Co-sign on the 4 games in 4 days nature of the series, Andy. As you said, it's almost like watching REAL baseball!
I wonder what Girardi does if AJ is on the verge of blowing up, but hasn't done so yet. Suppose it's 1-0 Tigers in the 6th and both pitchers are humming. But AJ suddenly loses it and loads the bases with no outs. Do you yank him before more damage can be done? It will be interesting to see how Girardi handles this game, both from a strategic perspective but also an emotional one (both his and Burnett's).
October 4th, 2011 at 2:17 pm
@Andy #2, I agree I love how this series has played out like it is during the regular season, back-to-back-to-back. But I am not going to get to used to it because I imagine (Haven't looked at the CS and WS schedule) that there will be enough days off to drag on for about 2.5 weeks.
October 4th, 2011 at 2:22 pm
Help! How's the weather in Detroit? Any chance of a rain out? Rioting? Power failure?
@BSK: If Burnett gets to the 6th with only allowing one run, for Girardi to keep him in would be like giving a big FU to the gods of baseball after they answered your prayers. But there is probably no choice. Who would Girardi put in? Rivera has only gone over one inning a few times this season. Roberts not much more.
October 4th, 2011 at 2:24 pm
If you list every unexpected outcome this year you could go forever. I make no bets. I don't have s problem pitching Burnett. Yankees signed him to mega bucks to be dominant. This is what he is supposed to do. Let him do it. Success or failure.
October 4th, 2011 at 2:37 pm
Probably no way he gives up more than 3 runs because he will be on the shortest leash of any pitcher in MLB postseason history.
October 4th, 2011 at 2:38 pm
5 runs in 4 innings. My guess is that he gaves up a couple of runs in the first 2 innings an then gets into big truble when faces the Tigers lineup for the second time, maybe he inherits a runner or two and the score afterwards.
By the way, Andy, I completely agree with you. Love watching those games on consecutive nights.
October 4th, 2011 at 2:43 pm
In the 2009 postseason, Burnett had five starts with the following Game Scores: 63, 61, 32, 72, 22. I think that Good A.J. will make a rare appearance tonight, deliver another 60+ Game Score, and then fade back into the mystical unknown. He's like a unicorn. Even if A.J. blows it, the Yankees have a pretty good chance in this game. Porcello is not a good pitcher.
October 4th, 2011 at 2:43 pm
I meant trouble, sorry.
October 4th, 2011 at 2:43 pm
Without thinking I went with 2 innings and 7 plus runs but now that I read the comments and take a moment to reflect I'm sure that the rational that Girardi will have him on a short leash is correct since it's win or go home...
October 4th, 2011 at 2:55 pm
I put him at 4 innings and 5 runs. Almost in the majority both times.
October 4th, 2011 at 3:02 pm
The Yankees have not lost this game with their rotation but rather their bullpen.
After tying game 3 they put in Soriano? Does anyone who has watched this team all year believe that Soriano should have been trusted with such a critical moment? I would have left the 7th, 8th, and 9th to a combination of Robertson and Rivera.
So through the first three games, Mariano Rivera has thrown exactly three pitches. And he threw them in a game that was in hand.
This is the 2003 Marlins series all over again.
I do not have high hopes with AJ on the mound tonight... But hey, even a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then.
October 4th, 2011 at 3:08 pm
@ Joseph (#6) ...I voted 4 IP & 6 runs too.
I just can't believe that Girardi is throwing this game away. It's the season on the line, and he marches AJ "6.28 road ERA" Burnett out to the mound?!? Or maybe I should nickname him AJ "career 7.17 ERA at Comerica" Burnett. I'm sorry but this guy is much better when pitching in Yankee Stadium. Save him for the home games.
It's such a horrible decision that I almost think there's a fix on this series... like the big whigs of MLB want to ensure Verlander goes deep into the playoffs. I know, that's a very unlikely conspiracy, but it keeps crossing my mind 'cause the decision is that insane.
October 4th, 2011 at 3:15 pm
With about 150 votes in each poll, I put the results into Excel to get the weighted predictions. The consensus is that AJ will allow 4 ER in 4.2 IP. Rather pessimistic. Will be interesting to see how well the Brefren have predicted reality.
(In the second poll, the last choice is 7+ ER. In the past 10 years, only one SP has allowed as many as 7 ER in a sudden death start. So rather than fudge the numbers for the chance that some are predicting Burnett could allow 8, 9, 10+ runs, I just counted all the 7+ votes as exactly 7.)
October 4th, 2011 at 3:22 pm
5 IP and 5 ER. I say he does well enough to give up a two or three-run jack in the fifth or sixth.
October 4th, 2011 at 3:23 pm
I just can't believe that Girardi is throwing this game away. It's the season on the line, and he marches AJ "6.28 road ERA" Burnett out to the mound?!? Or maybe I should nickname him AJ "career 7.17 ERA at Comerica" Burnett. I'm sorry but this guy is much better when pitching in Yankee Stadium. Save him for the home games.
Who would you start tonight?
Burnett isn't a guy they "save." He's a guy they're only using because they feel forced into it by the changed schedule. They don't have the option of waiting for home games, since they have to win the road game before they get to play at home again.
October 4th, 2011 at 3:39 pm
I'd use anybody else, because anybody will do better than Burnett on the road. Colon hasn't pitched this series yet. I'd even consider giving Logan a spot start. I think either of them would do better in Comerica tonight than Burnett. Burnett is downright awful on the road and pretty much guarantees a Yankees loss. You just can't do worse than Burnett in a must-win situation against a playoff team.
Colon has a 3.45 road ERA. He's been in playoff pressure games before, so he understands the nerves. He may not be what it was a few years ago, but he still isn't AJ Burnett. Then you can save Burnett for the next game... which is in Yankee stadium.
October 4th, 2011 at 3:43 pm
Colon's not on the roster.
October 4th, 2011 at 3:50 pm
Oh man, I didn't realize that. Girardi's an idiot for putting Burnett on and leaving Colon off.
I'd pitch Boone Logan then.
This is all another reason why these post-season suspended games are a bunch of baloney. I hope they stop that.
October 4th, 2011 at 4:00 pm
My prediction is 5 innings and 3 ER. Whether that's good enough for the Yankees to win...we'll see.
October 4th, 2011 at 4:00 pm
Next thing you know, the Tigers will be starting Brad Penny in game 5. I have no idea how this guy managed to win 10 games during the season. Porcello could win tonight if he gets run support but he's not a whole lot better than Penny. If it were me, I'd only pitch Verlander and Fister. Scherzer's win was a huge surprise.
October 4th, 2011 at 4:00 pm
Burnett will surprise many people by going six innings and allowing one earned run. If the Yanks have a big lead and the pitch count is reasonable, Girardi might send him out for the 7th to bridge to Robertson and Rivera.
October 4th, 2011 at 4:00 pm
Nova would pitch game 5. Burnett was not supposed to start at all.
How does the suspended game change anything? Whether they started over on Saturday or not, they'd be in the same situation.
Colon is not what he was in mid-season. He's lost about 5 mph on his fastball. I was surprised he was left off the roster as well, but the team felt Burnett would adjust to the pen better.
Start Logan? What's he going to give them, maybe 2 innings, and it would be almost entirely against righties? They could try Hughes, though he hasn't started a game in 3 weeks.
October 4th, 2011 at 4:02 pm
JT, surely Sabathia and Verlander would have pitched Game 5 had they both pitched their normal games in Game 1 and then not been used in Game 3?
October 4th, 2011 at 4:03 pm
Burnett will surprise many people by going six innings and allowing one earned run. If the Yanks have a big lead and the pitch count is reasonable, Girardi might send him out for the 7th to bridge to Robertson and Rivera.
I wouldn't be shocked if he goes 6 strong. If he comes back out for the 7th, it's a terrible decision, even if he's only thrown 19 pitches.
October 4th, 2011 at 4:04 pm
Andy, I thought Sabathia was originally going to pitch game 4 on short rest.
October 4th, 2011 at 4:08 pm
Sorry for being unclear in #28, which was partially in response to #24's comment about suspended games. Obviously the game 1 rain has changed things. My point was that whether they re-started game 1 on Saturday in the 1st inning, or the bottom of the 2nd as they did, the Yankees would be in the same position now, having lost an off-day on Sunday.
October 4th, 2011 at 4:15 pm
Roy Halladay, Ian Kennedy, Cliff Lee, CJ Wilson, Doug Fister, CC Sabathia, James Shields, Chris Carpenter, and Justin Verlander have put up a combined LDS ERA around 6.80 - 7.00 if I did my math right. Since apparently the postseason is the Bizarro version of the regular season, I have Burnett going 7 innings, 1 earned run, because why the hell not.
October 4th, 2011 at 4:24 pm
JT is correct @31,
The original scheduled starters were Sabathia, Nova, Garcia, Sabathia (short rest), Nova (full rest because of the off day Wednesday).
October 4th, 2011 at 4:35 pm
My prediction is AJ Burnett will make me throw up at least twice during the 6 innings he will pitch tonight.
October 4th, 2011 at 4:43 pm
@30 Johnny Twisto:
I'm assuming Soriano won't be available tonight. Ayala has struggled in the series, which leaves Hughes, Wade and Logan before getting to Robertson and Rivera.
If Burnett does indeed go 6 strong innings, would you use Hughes or Wade if the due lineup was right-handed, with Logan available for use against a lefty? Or would you consider Ayala despite his ineffectiveness in 2 appearances? Or would you go straight to Robertson and try to get 3 innings out of him and Rivera?
I realize that a lot depends on the score and the matchups, but in a win or go home game like this, do you think it makes sense to go straight to your 2 best options?
October 4th, 2011 at 5:03 pm
Brooklyn, my preference would be to use Robertson and Rivera for 3 innings.
If needed in the 6th, I think Logan and Wade could match up.
If Burnett is ineffective early, go to Hughes.
October 4th, 2011 at 5:18 pm
3 and 2/3 innings.
3 walks
4 hits
4 runs
1 wild pitch
That is my bold prediction. If I'm right, you can hire me as the BR psychic.
October 4th, 2011 at 6:02 pm
@38 No strikeouts? I've got Burnett ringing up Austin Jackson in his first two at bats.
October 4th, 2011 at 6:08 pm
I updated the weighted predictions since there's now about twice as many votes as there were before. Results are the same, 4.2 IP and 4 ER.
October 4th, 2011 at 9:03 pm
The only way Burnett goes 9 is if he's pitching a perfect game and has a double digit lead. And even then Rivera will be warming up.
October 4th, 2011 at 10:55 pm
I'm going to guess that A.J. goes 5 2/3 innings & gives up 1 earned run. I'm also going to predict that the Giants will win the 2010 World Series!!
October 4th, 2011 at 11:00 pm
Donnie Baseball comes through again!
October 5th, 2011 at 11:44 am
That hook was pretty short though. Gerardi was ready to pull him in the first.
October 5th, 2011 at 11:56 am
@44. As Burnett should have had a quick hook. Listen, I am happy that Yanks won and I thought he did a good job. However, if Granderson doesn't make that catch, the Yanks are down 3-0 and based on what he has done all year, AJ would just have gotten worse.
October 5th, 2011 at 12:05 pm
There's a chance Yanks are down 4-0 if he doesn't make that catch.
October 5th, 2011 at 12:30 pm
Yes, I was absolutely correct, wasn't I? All of those nay sayers, were wrong.