Quick coverage of a few games (Wednesday 9/21/11)
Posted by John Autin on September 22, 2011
Yankees 4, Rays 2 (2nd game): Deja vu all over again. The Yankees had clinched a playoff berth in the opener with an 8th-inning rally and a 4-2 win; the used the same formula in the nightcap to clinch the AL East, their 12th division title in 16 years. In 2 weeks they'll begin to work in earnest on ending their long championship drought....
Jorge Posada, who was just 2 for 24 as a pinch-hitter the past 2 years and .210 for his career, came off the bench with the game tied in the 8th, 2 out and the bases full -- after Robinson Cano was intentionally passed with men on 1st and 2nd (?) -- and pulled a pitch from Brandon Gomes into RF for a 2-run single.
- David Robertson continued his magical run of bases-loaded Houdinis, throwing 1 pitch in the 8th and getting a GDP to save CC's bacon. In 19 sacks-full PAs, Robertson has allowed 1 hit (in his first chance of the year) and no other baserunners, with 14 Ks.
- Next challenge for the Yankees: No player has ever won a WS title in the year he collected his 3,000th hit, and only Eddie Murray ('95) even played in the WS the same year. (Someone double-check me on that?)
- Despite Boston's loss, the Rays fell 2.5 games back in the wild-card race (2 in the loss column) and into a tie with the Angels, who beat Toronto, 7-2, behind 8 strong innings from Dan Haren.
- Angels CF Peter Bourjos, a defensive standout but an offensive zero last year, began the night with a 111 OPS+, then got his 12th HR and 10th triple among his 3 hits.
Orioles 6, Red Sox 4: Boston led 4-1 through 5, but Mark Reynolds tied it in the 7th with his 2nd HR off Josh Beckett, and Vlad Guerrero greeted reliever Alfredo Aceves in the 8th with a 2-run single for the lead. Boston's last 11 hitters went out in order.
- Reynolds has 36 HRs and 85 RBI. There have been just 4 seasons of 36+ HRs and no more than 85 RBI; 3 came in 1956 -- Willie Mays, and teammates Frank Robinson and Wally Post. (The '56 Reds led the majors with 221 HRs, which may have been a record at the time. Fun Strat-O-Matic team.)
Marlins 4, Braves 0: Is Javier Vazquez still pondering retirement? It sure looks like he's putting on a salary drive. The struggling Braves were the latest to run into his buzz-saw -- no runs in 7 IP, 2 hits, 1 walk -- and came out with their 8th loss in 12 games. Meanwhile in the Midwest, St. Louis rallied in the 7th for the 2nd straight night to beat the Mets, powered by David Freese's 2-out, 3-run HR. The wild-card gap is down to 1.5, just 1 in the loss column.
- That's 25 straight zeroes put up by Vazquez. He has 11 straight Quality Starts (1.54 ERA), and a 2.74 ERA and over 5 K/BB in his last 23 outings.
Tigers 6, Royals 3: Detroit is already setting up its postseason rotation. Doug Fister, who came to the Tigers with a 3-12 record, won his 6th straight decision with 3 innings of relief. He was on the hook for the loss after an unearned run scored in the 6th, but he retired the next 9 men and the Tigers scored the game's last 4 runs with their usual balanced attack.
- Miguel Cabrera, who's started all but 3 games this year, got a bit of rest, then drove in the go-ahead run with a pinch-hit double in the 8th. It's a sign of his durability that Cabrera has just 9 PAs as a pinch-hitter. Since his debut in June 2003, Cabrera has played in all but 33 of his teams' games.
- Detroit began the day tied with Texas for the #2 seed and the right to face the wild-card instead of the Yankees -- a much bigger plum than it looked like 3 weeks ago.
Reds 2, Astros 0: Circle that, Bert! Bronson Arroyo, 6 taters away from Bert Blyleven's all-time record of 50 HRs allowed, instead threw his first shutout in over 2 years, allowing 6 hits but no walks and using just 91 pitches, the 2nd most efficient whitewash this year.
- Pittsburgh may have fallen off our radar screen, but Derrek Lee (4-1-3-2, HR) has been raking since going over in a deadline deal. He's missed some time, but Lee has hit .363/1.072 in 23 games for the Bucs, with 7 HRs and 18 RBI.
September 22nd, 2011 at 1:06 am
this is what i was saying a couple of weeks ago. at least once a series, sometimes more, the Braves just leave their bats in the dugout, and they'd be lucky to get any runs off my grandmother. this forces young or just mediocre pitchers (we can call Derek Lowe that, right? he's had an odd shape to his career) to be near perfect. that's why the Braves, if they even make the playoffs, won't make it very far.
September 22nd, 2011 at 1:11 am
John, I just wanted to thank you for the daily summaries you've been writing. With a million other things on the internet competing for my attention, it's entirely your doing that when I type the letter "B" into my Google Chrome browser, it knows to go to Baseball Reference.
Cheers!
September 22nd, 2011 at 4:17 am
In the Cardinal win over the Mets, Albert Pujols went 2-4 with a double and scored 2 runs to give him 101 runs for the season.
The 2 for 4 brought the batting average up to .305
He had no RBI's so still at 98.
So he has 7 games left 1 vs Mets, 3 vs Cubs, and 3 at Houston to get 2 RBI's and keep the average over .300
Too tired at this hour to compute how many 0- fers would put him under .300 but no matter what he's having a decent season.
September 22nd, 2011 at 5:19 am
Miguel Cabrera is only 28 and has 343 career doubles and 1581 hits already? The kid has been accumulating.
September 22nd, 2011 at 5:20 am
@3:
The .300 and 100 RBI are safe, unless he injures himself.
I'd like to see hiim hit 3 more doubles, though, for full numerical harmony.
September 22nd, 2011 at 8:12 am
Thumbs up on the "Circle THAT, Bert!"
September 22nd, 2011 at 8:37 am
Not topic related, but if you don't mind me bringing up an MVP debate thing again.
I think the best way to settle the argument of "Should a pitcher win MVP", would be to take the Hank Aaron award more seriously. The fans and the media vote for the Hank Aaron award. The BBWAA vote for all other awards except the Gold Glove and Silver Slugger.
If they vote for the Cy Young Award, the award given to teh best pitcher, why can't they vote for the Hank Aaron award, an award given to the best overall hitter.
That way people don't have to say "Pitchers shouldn't win the MVP because they have the Cy Young award".
Perhaps the BBWAA could take control of the Hank Aaron award, and perhaps the media coudl talk more about it. They always talk MVP and Cy Young Award, I think the Hank Aaron Award should get more coverage.
2nd thing I want to point out, even if they make the playoffs, this Red Sox collapse is going to cost Ellsbury or Gonzalez (the 2 favored Red Sox to win it if it went to a Red Sox plalyer) the MVP and it will come down to Granderson or Verlander
September 22nd, 2011 at 10:41 am
If Verlander wins the MVP ( and I am not saying he shouldn't); how high does Weaver finish?
September 22nd, 2011 at 10:46 am
@7, Mike -- Who ever minded an MVP debate? 🙂
About the BoSox' collapse costing Ellsbury or Gonzalez MVP votes -- Shame on any writer who is thus affected, for it reveals that he or she does not follow the game closely enough.
Ellsbury has turned it UP in September, hitting .356/1.032, with 14 RBI and 17 Runs in 20 games. Gonzalez has kept it up, .328/1.072 in September. Both have had some big games that the bullpen blew late.
Boston's struggles have little to do with the offensive side of things. They've averaged almost 6 runs a game in September, and while they haven't distributed those runs efficiently (3 wins by at least 9 runs), they've scored 5 runs in each of their last 3 losses. But it's very hard to win when you allow 6.5 R/G as they have this month.
September 22nd, 2011 at 12:12 pm
The winning pitcher for the Orioles last night was Clay Rapada, who now has a lifetime record of 5-0. If he never played another game, he would break Ben Shields' long-standing record of most career wins without a loss.
September 22nd, 2011 at 12:13 pm
The Rockies' Aaron Cook gave up four first-inning runs to the Padres in a 4-0 loss, dropping his overall career W-L record to 72-68 and his record against the Padres to 14-7. Yes, I would like to see the Padres sign Cook as a free agent this offseason, if only to keep him from tormenting them for another team.
September 22nd, 2011 at 12:16 pm
@3/ Mike Gaber and @5/ Jacob -
I too have been tracking "ALBERT PUJOLS - the quest for .300/ 30/ 100/ 100"...
Assuming that he plays in all seven remaining games, and gets an average of four AB/game, he would need to go 5-28 to have a .300 BA. This site has him at 97 RBI, not 98: 3 RBI in 7 games may not sound that hard to do, but I'm sure he had a number of stretches worse than that this year.
Despite his slow first-half start, his OPS+ is 156, and would be no worse than his lowest in 2001, 2002, and 2007, due to the lower offensive levels this year. If not for 99 runs in 2007, he would have .300/ 30/ 100/ 100 the first 11 years of his career (assuming he gets three more ribbies). In more advanced stats, he has been in the Top-10 all 11 years:
-Adjusted Batting Wins
-WAR Position Players
-Offensive WAR
- Base-Out Runs Added
-Base-Out Wins Added
I doubt any other player has done that his first 11 full years in the majors except for Ted Williams, but Base-Out Runs Added and Base-Out Wins Added are not available (yet) before 1950. Mickey Mantle and Willie Mays qualify if you don't count their rookie years as a "full" season, and use 1952-62 and 1954-64 respectively. That puts Pujols in rarified company.
It looks like Ichiro's 10-year streak of 200+ hits is going to come to an end, unless he gets 22 hits in the last seven Mariners games, same with A-Rod's streak of 30 HR/ 100 RBI years.
September 22nd, 2011 at 12:36 pm
@10, Spindlebrook -- The first sign that Ben Shields was destined to be unbeatable: In his first MLB start, he allowed 3 runs in the top of the 10th, but Babe Ruth hit a grand slam in the bottom half to give Shields his first win:
http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/1925/B09240NYA1925.htm
In his next start, he blew a 2-run lead in the top of the 9th -- on the 2nd HR by relief pitcher Jess Doyle in his 2 ABs that game -- but again his mates picked him up:
http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/1925/B09282NYA1925.htm
Those were the only HRs ever hit by Jess Doyle:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/doyleje01.shtml
Nothing so quirky in Rapada's record, as far as I can tell. But he does have the same awful .882 fielding percentage in both the majors and minors -- totaling 17 errors in 144 chances:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rapadcl01.shtml#standard_fielding::none
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=rapada001cla#standard_fielding::none
September 22nd, 2011 at 12:47 pm
BTW, I didn't mention above that Dave Robertson (1 pitch, 2 outs) got the win last night -- the 5th time this year that a win was earned with just 1 pitch, and the 2nd time said pitcher got 2 outs.
The other 1-pitch, 2-out win was by Pedro Beato on July 8:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SFN/SFN201107080.shtml
Ironically, just about the time Robertson was doing his magic last night, Mets reliever Danny Herrera was getting hung with a 1-pitch loss, as Beato served up a go-ahead 3-run HR on his 5th pitch of the night:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SLN/SLN201109210.shtml
Here are the one-pitch decisions this year; there have been no decisions without throwing a pitch:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/share.cgi?id=LGJGs
Here's the last no-pitch decision, from 2009 -- a win by Alan Embree when he picked off Austin Kearns for the last out of the 8th:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/COL/COL200907070.shtml
September 22nd, 2011 at 12:54 pm
A no pitch decision. Wow, that must cause a lot of stat processing nightmares.
September 22nd, 2011 at 1:06 pm
@15 Mosc: Think of the fun of the Babe Ruth-Ernie Shore game-June 23, 1917. Ruth walks the first guy, gets ejected for mouthing off at the umpire, Shore comes in, picks off the runner, and then retired the next 26 in a row.
September 22nd, 2011 at 1:12 pm
Again an IBB to load the bases proves stupido.
Again Mark Reynolds makes the case that a .223 hitter with 183 strikeouts might be a valuable offensive player.
September 22nd, 2011 at 1:43 pm
I think the IBB to Cano was done after he worked a 3-1 count (I believe). I know only ball 4 was "intentional".
Plus Madden was probably also thinking of the go ahead 2-run double Cano rocketed over the CF head in the eighth inning of Game 1 that afternoon. I guess he figured he was learning from his mistakes.
September 22nd, 2011 at 2:16 pm
@18, Tmckelv -- Indeed, only ball 4 was intentional, after an organic 3-1 count.
I still hate the ploy. Robinson Cano's a fine, fine hitter. He's not Babe Ruth. Maddon deliberately moved the go-ahead run to 3B, whence he could score on a walk, WP, error, etc.
The basic comparison for that situation is ... would you rather face Cano's .305 batting average, or someone else's on-base average?
September 22nd, 2011 at 2:38 pm
I never like the IBB to advance the lead runner. Putting him on third when a wild pitch earns a run is even more rarely a wise move.
September 22nd, 2011 at 4:30 pm
Hey JA, could your Mets please win a game against the Cards or at least hold onto a late lead?
The Cards are so hot right now I would be very worried about facing them in the first round if I was Philly.
September 22nd, 2011 at 4:42 pm
@21, Topper -- Could we win a game? Hold on, I'll check. What month is it, again? 🙂
September 22nd, 2011 at 4:53 pm
Plenty of references in this and other threads to AL MVP . In all humility, what are peoples views onwhat is , or should be ,the "contending team " argument? Is it just a tiebreaker? That is, if two players are having more or less equal seasons "should" the nod go to the player on the better team? or should it be table stakes ; you have to play for a contender to be even considered? Or something in between? Putting Verlander aside for the moment, Bautista is having a significantly better season than Granderson; the latter is having a very good year for a playoff team, the Blue Jays would be .470 without Joey and are .500 with him - Is that "valuable" enough?
September 22nd, 2011 at 5:19 pm
Regardless of anything else, the best player has the most value, to any team. Therefore the best player is the most valuable player.
September 22nd, 2011 at 5:56 pm
@24, Topper -- Something about that statement feels a little too slick to me. Isn't that just taking the variable meaning of "most valuable" and hiding it under the variable meaning of "best"?
How do we know that "the best player has the most value"? That doesn't feel self-evident to me, not in the practical world. There are too many nuances in the meaning of "best" and "value".
Consider free agency: The "best" available player doesn't always get the biggest contract; a couple of big-budget teams may share a specific need and bid up the price on the player who best meets that need -- i.e., the player with the most value to them.
Maybe that's not a perfect analogy. But I don't think the debate over the meaning of "Most Valuable Player" will be resolved by what strikes me as a tautology.
September 22nd, 2011 at 7:06 pm
I can see an argument something like:
The best player in the league in a RF with 8 WAR, but every other team in the league has a RF with 7 WAR. Now the best 2B in the league has 6 WAR, but every other team in the league has a 2B with 1 WAR. I could see arguing for the 2B to be the MVP while not being the best player in the league, but I just really dont like factoring the team results into it AT ALL. I mean it just really feels like giving the Cy Young to the guy with the most wins.
(Although hopefully the old school voters are still in power for this year so Braun can win the NL MVP when Kemp actually deserves it)
September 22nd, 2011 at 7:23 pm
6 runs in the top of 9th down by 4 for the Mets, nice work JA!!
Don't blow it (knock on wood, cross fingers, etc)
September 22nd, 2011 at 9:48 pm
Therefore the best player is the most valuable player.
So Albert Pujols should win the MVP this season?
(Or maybe you no longer consider him the best player in the league, but if you do, he must be the MVP.)
September 22nd, 2011 at 11:28 pm
OK, that was a bit flippant. I'll assume you meant, "The player having the best season is the most valuable player." But as JA, and a million others, have noted, I don't think there's a clear definition of "best." If a player managed to hit all 50 of his home runs when his team already had big leads, I don't think he'd qualify as most valuable, even if his context-neutral stats were well ahead of everyone else's. To me, MVP is a very context-driven award, which should consider not just one's overall performance, but when that performance occurred, against whom it occurred. And yes, how important the games were. This is not to say that I would not vote for a player on a losing team; I certainly would. But how long his team stayed in the race is another consideration to weigh.
When Jose Bautista was on pace for a historic season, I thought he would have been a legit MVP. Had he ended up with 50+ HR and a 1.200+ OPS, I probably put him on top of my ballot. Since he regressed to a merely excellent season, not miles ahead of everyone else, I probably won't. He'll surely make my top 10, but I doubt I'll have him on top.
September 22nd, 2011 at 11:30 pm
@28 [taking the bait and waving hand in air] I no longer consider Albert Pujols the best player in the league, Mr. Twisto! Nor even the best at his position in the league.
Albert's still great, but I think Votto is better, and he's well-enough established that I think he stays better over the next few years.
And if we talk about all first basemen, I'll take Gonzalez and Cabrera over Albert, too.
Just don't tell him I said so....
September 22nd, 2011 at 11:33 pm
But believe me, I find it ludicrous when Harold Reynolds says on national TV that he'd pick Michael Young as his MVP. It's *possible* he deserves a down-ballot vote. There's no way in hell he should be on top of any logical person's ballot. There are 5 or 6 names being thrown around for AL MVP and I don't think any of them are obviously bad choices, depending on how one weights certain things. Michael Young would be an obviously bad choice. Of course, he's not going to win, or come anywhere close, so I won't get too steamed. But I want to like Harold, and then he says some stuff like that.
September 22nd, 2011 at 11:43 pm
Fair enough, JA. I figured Pujols' dominance was probably no longer clear enough that I shouldn't use him as an example, but I decided to let it fly anyway.
I would have voted for Pujols over Votto-matic as MVP last season, but I had it extremely close. Anyone have a strong opinion on Votto's defense? I'm not aware of any clear consensus on that.
Speaking of Miguel Cabrera, it's odd how the MVP storyline has excluded him almost entirely. I thought maybe it was because he had snuck up on everyone with big numbers the last month, after the top candidates had already been "set," but he's actually been hitting all year long. I guess it's mostly because he's a power hitter with under 30 HR and a lot of his value is in his OBP. It's just odd that as Detroit played so well over the past month, all the talk was about Verlander, and none about Cabrera, who was hitting superbly.
Anyway, I suspect his final numbers will be sufficient to get him a lot of support, but I see no chance he will win. I don't know that he deserves to. But I think there could be multiple players getting 1st place votes and I don't think he'll be among them, just since the "narrative" has ignored him.
September 23rd, 2011 at 12:42 am
@32, JT -- I didn't mean any criticism of the Pujols/best player analogy. I was just mouthing off.
Meanwhile ... Goodness -- is Harold Reynolds really back on national TV? I guess there's hope for all of us.
Harold must know far more about some aspects of the game than I ever will. If only he could relate some of that knowledge, instead of the cliches and absurdities he utters every time I've seen him.
As for Miggy ... yes, I've been struck by the utter silence around his great year. To some extent, I think his reputation has always suffered by comparison to Pujols, much as Tim Raines played in Rickey's shadow. Cabrera came up 2 years after Albert, and has had the same sort of metronomic consistency in his yearly numbers, usually a small step below what Albert does. I think a lot of people sort of pegged him at that level, and maybe haven't noticed that he's actually surpassed Albert as a hitter in the past 2 years.
He's not the fielder or baserunner Albert is. And there's probably also some reluctance to talk him up in the media, due to the troubling drunken incidents in the past couple of years.
But Tigers fans know what he's done over the past 2 years. Here are all the Tigers with qualifying seasons of OPS+ 170 or higher:
Cobb, 11
Greenberg, 2
Heilmann, 2
Cash, 1 (1961)
Kaline, 1 (1967)
Cabrera, 2 (counting this year's 173)
Past 2 seasons' combined slash lines and OPS+:
Pujols ..... .309/.395/.575/.970 ... 165 OPS+
Cabrera ... .331/.430/.591/1.021 ... 176 OPS+
September 23rd, 2011 at 12:52 am
He's a bad defensive first baseman with no speed and there are comparable hitters out there (Cabrera). I don't see him as an MVP unless he becomes a good fielder, or becomes a hitter significantly better than he already is.
Anybody ever consider a player's expectations when considering him as an MVP? The biggest over-acheiver among the MVP candidates this year has to be Jacoby Ellisbury. If he performs like he did in past years, the Red Sox aren't a playoff team. Crawford was a big failure. Gonzalez and Pedroia performed as expected, as did Youkilis to some extent. Ortiz returned to form.
But Ellisbury's surprise breakout year has been the biggest key to Boston's success, especially with how Crawford failed this year. Ellisbury did everything the Sox were hoping Crawford would do, and he did it far better.
WAR has him second only to Bautista, who was the best player, but to win on an non contender I think you have to be even more dominant. I'd love to see Bautista win as a Jays fan, but I just think games played on non-contending teams don't carry the same impact, I vote Ellisbury.
September 23rd, 2011 at 1:01 am
You're right about Cabrera though, he gets less credit than he deserves and will probably get far less votes than he deserves. That .440 OBP is huge compared to his rivals aside from Bautista. It's a tough vote this year with lots of contenders and no clear runaways. The 2 best players according to WAR are a pitcher and a player on a non-contender, and that doesn't fare well for them.
September 23rd, 2011 at 8:22 am
@33,etc- I'm sorry, or happy, but I remember September of '09- Favre getting off to a bonkers start (and no, I'm not even a Vikings fan, but I was there), and the Twins gaining ground fast.....me, trying to catch the WHITE Sux- Tigers games on AM radio- so close, so close, down to the wire, and then- Cabrera's, um, situation, on the last weekend of the season.
Great, great memories for me. One of the greatest comebacks, (7 down in Sept., was it??) ever.
How does a Detroit fan feel? "Thanks, Miggy??"
Something to consider........it would color, but not trash my perception of him forever....except, he got into more s*** this spring.
Which is, whatever, but, DET, can you count on him to deliver a title??
In that sense, he's not Albert's equal.
September 23rd, 2011 at 9:33 am
@29, Your reply , I think, captures well the actual practice of the voters; when a player on a non-contender ( doesn't have to be a losing team) has a season that is miles ahead of everyone else, he has a shot; when he is merely significantly ahead, he has no chance. I think the Cy Young award has historically given the "team" element much less weight. how about Kemp in the NL. Has he a shot?
September 23rd, 2011 at 1:29 pm
@37, Bryan M. -- Kemp definitely has a shot at the MVP, especially now that the batting title is in play (and thus the Triple Crown).
It's weird to say this, because Kemp's been the best player in the NL whether or not he leads the league in any or all of the Triple Crown categories. But if he wins the T.C., I'm sure he'll win the MVP. If not, I think it's 50-50.
September 23rd, 2011 at 1:43 pm
@38 Agreed, winning the TC , since it happens so rarely , counts as "miles ahead of everyone else" and thus forces the voters' hands -- this , year , only Braun is within "miles" , and maybe he's close enough...
September 23rd, 2011 at 3:06 pm
@29, I thought the whole point of moving away from judging players by RBIs and Wins is to judge them based on things they can control...except for the MVP apparently. Why should a player get penalized if they hit 50 dingers when his team is ahead? Was it his fault they were winning by a lot?
One thing people tend to forget is what fans associate with the MVP? I think it basically means MVP = best player in the league that year. Its a huge honor and a big deal and things that people memorize and know. Because of this it should go to the guy with the best production, not the luckiest guy of the top 10 players who happened to have the most chances to affect the pennant race.
@37, Chuck Klein won the triple crown in 1933 but no MVP, Lou Gehrig won the triple crown in 1934 but no MVP, and Ted Williams won the triple crown TWICE, but no MVP in either year! (1942, 1947).
September 23rd, 2011 at 8:19 pm
@40, Topper / 2nd point -- "what fans associate with the MVP ... = best player in the league that year."
I don't think that's the dominant view, because I don't think there is a dominant view. I think there are plenty of fans who don't think Kemp or Bautista should get the MVP because their teams were never in contention.
IMO, when the MVP voters fail to apply a discernible, consistent standard of what the MVP means, they're merely reflecting the public sentiment. And while I might prefer to see a little more definition to the award, I think the larger baseball public is pretty happy with the status quo, Potter Stewart standard: "I know it when I see it."
September 23rd, 2011 at 8:53 pm
I thought the whole point of moving away from judging players by RBIs and Wins is to judge them based on things they can control.
It all depends on what you're trying to judge, I suppose. If a player is on a terrible team and literally never came up with anyone on base, I wouldn't hold his poor RBI total against him in evaluating how good a player he is, projecting him for the future, deciding how much money to offer him. But I simply don't see how he could be the MVP. He just wasn't given the opportunity to contribute very much value. Is it "fair"? Perhaps not, but that's how I see it. This is a team game. Everything a player does should be evaluated within the context of his team and the games they play. Some moments are more important than others, and thus contributions at those times are more valuable. If this weren't so, why not pitch Mariano Rivera in the 3rd inning when down by 10?
Maybe you think I'm inconsistent or short-sighted on this. I don't know. I've thought about it a lot.
I'm probably overstating my actual position just to get my point across. I'm much more apt to consider players from out-of-contention teams for the MVP than the BBWAA traditionally is. I was recently arguing with someone in another thread who claimed Bautista was playing "meaningless" games. I do not believe that at all.
September 23rd, 2011 at 11:26 pm
@42, sometimes thought experiments help us , but not ,I think, in this case, far from terrible teams,
Kemp and Bautista play for above-.500 teams (as of now, anyway ) , I think everyone gets that context matters; actions that contribute significantly to wins are worth more than actions in blowouts. Both players cited above have contributed decisively to wins for their team - but the BBWAA seems to say, at least ,most of the time, that some wins are more valuable than others, Just a subjective impression, but there seems to be a break point somewhere between 82 and 90 wins where the player on the 90 win team gets more than 10% more consideration than the same player on the 82 win team.
Of course, I've done no research on this ,so could be way off base.
September 23rd, 2011 at 11:54 pm
Okay so now a tiny bit of research; in the 15 years 1996-2010 , since the last shortened season, there have been 30 awards, 29 went to players on winning teams - 1 (A-rod in 2003) to a last-place team. Other than him, lowest win totals were Larry Walker in 1997 (83), and Ryan Howard in 2006 (85)
September 24th, 2011 at 12:06 am
For comparison, how many players from losing teams likely deserved to win over that period? Obviously there's some subjectivity involved in that. You could tally it by WAR or whatever means you choose.
I think everyone gets that context matters; actions that contribute significantly to wins are worth more than actions in blowouts.
Perhaps they get it but I don't know if they always act like it. It seems like there are plenty of people who will argue that a 180 OPS+, or 8 WAR, or whatever, is clearly deserving of the MVP when no one else has more than 160 OPS+, or 7 WAR, or whatever.
September 24th, 2011 at 10:55 am
@45 Johnny, thanks for pushing me to do some more research; before I begin, let me once again draw a distinction between contributing to wins, and contributing to a winning season. @43, you point out that a player who doesn't contribute to "wins" ie, has nobody to drive in , gets less consideration in your view than someone with more context- related accomplishments.
I think the BBWAA gives more weight to winning seasons; to Illustrate, the 1996 NL WPA leaders; Bonds , (5th in the voting), Bagwell (9th) and Sheffield( tied for 6th) a contibuted significantly to wins for their teams . Bonds was clearly the best player that year Highest WAR by a lot; his team won 68 games; Bagwell and Sheffield are more interesting; they played for winning teams , In Sheffield's case, a playoff team.
What I am trying to tease out , and it looks like I'll have to do the research myself , Is how big a handicap playing for a mediocre team is - not how much it should be, but what the record is - clearly , you are 2.0 WAR ahead, playing for a losing team -- you will struggle to win; what about 1.0 WAR ahead for an 86 win team?
BTW , I'm a total newbie at this ; we're not in the right thread for an extended discussion of this topic; does anyone have any pointers?
September 24th, 2011 at 7:48 pm
Bryan, not sure what you're asking -- pointers for what? How to identify how big a statistical advantage a player needs to win the MVP on a worse team? I don't know if there's an easy answer to that as there's different ways one could look at it. Thinking about it some more, I'm not sure using WAR is the best way, since I don't think the voters usually balance out offensive and defensive contributions in any systematic way. Has any up-the-middle player with less-than-amazing offensive stats ever won the MVP for a non-playoff team? It would probably make more sense to see which traditional stats, except for team standing, usually lead to being named MVP, and then which guys who achieved those marks for non-playoff teams did not win. I know various people have put together "MVP predictors" based on such historical data.
September 24th, 2011 at 8:51 pm
Johnny, thanks, that was exactly the kind of guidance I was looking for. I also had come to the conclusion that WAR was not a good predictor of voting, for example , Juan Gone won MVP in 1996 and 1998 despite being out of the top ten in WAR in both years, in triple crown stats he was 4th and 5th in HR and 2nd and 1st in RBI, the team was in the playoffs both years although Juan was not the best position player on his team, much less the league.
Middle infielders have led the league in WAR, played for a playoff team, and not won (Craig Biggio).
To answer your question about up-the-middle players on non-playoff teams ; maybe Robin Yount as a CF (his second award) or Brooks in '64 , he had nice but not eye-popping offensive numbers , led the league in RBI , and was famous for his defense; then again 3B is not "up-the-middle"
Conclusion - drive in a lot of runs for a playoff team and the voters will like you -- miss on either of those two and you've really gotta be spectacular in other offensive categories.
!
September 24th, 2011 at 11:49 pm
In 2 weeks [the Yankees will] begin to work in earnest on ending their long championship drought....
As a M's fan and also on behalf of Expos/Nationals fans, I'd like to suggest politely that the Yankees can take their "long championship drought" and stick it where the sun don't shine.
I know, I know. The Cubs haven't won in over a century, but at least they've been and won.
September 27th, 2011 at 2:14 am
Powerful info, especially loved the part regarding gaming on the web.
September 27th, 2011 at 2:16 am
Enjoyable article, particularly loved the words regarding gaming on the net.
September 30th, 2011 at 12:19 pm
Guys on what server you play? I'm going to buy WoW plus all the expansions, but I have no idea what is the best server since I am a noob.What do you think?!
October 3rd, 2011 at 8:24 pm
Unfortunately, I went on a four day hiking trip the day after seeing the Dbacks/Pirates game and have forgot about wanting to comment until now. There were two successful double steals in the early innings of the game. I suspect Double Steals are not easily viewed in the PI. I don't know if I had ever seen a double steal while at the ball park before and two in a game does seem uncommon.