Stephen Strasburg 2.0
Posted by Andy on September 1, 2011
Stephen Strasburg is set to make his 2011 debut in the majors next Tuesday.
His 2011 stats in the minors on rehab are interesting:
| Year | Age | Tm | Lg | Lev | Aff | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | BF | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 22 | 3 Teams | 3 Lgs | A-AAA-A+ | WSN | 5.02 | 5 | 5 | 14.1 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 62 | 1.116 |
| 2011 | 22 | Potomac | CARL | A+ | WSN | 0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 0.667 |
| 2011 | 22 | Hagerstown | SALL | A | WSN | 9.95 | 3 | 3 | 6.1 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 33 | 1.895 |
| 2011 | 22 | Syracuse | IL | AAA | WSN | 1.80 | 1 | 1 | 5.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 0.400 |
The top line is the sum for the 3 lines below it. That's 25 strikeouts in 14.1 innings, but look at his performance in Hagerstown where he allowed 7 earned runs in 6.1 innings (while striking out 13!). That's weird. I would assume he was trying out certain pitches, or focusing on location or something, without worrying about the outcome.
Hopefully Strasburg's return to the majors is as successful has his last stint and lasts a lot longer.
September 1st, 2011 at 9:15 am
His Hagerstown stop had one real bad outing: 1.2 IP 4H 5 R 2BB 3 K.
This article makes it look like he had poor fastball command and then was grooving it a bit to get it over. One bad outing coming off of TJX...no big thing.
http://www.csnwashington.com/08/17/11/Strasburg-roughed-up/landing_v3.html?blockID=550470&feedID=5685
September 1st, 2011 at 9:33 am
He struck out about 40% of the batters he faced. They were limiting him to 50 pitches per outing early on. I also suspect he wasn't going out there to blow his fastball by them, just testing his arm and control. He was putting the ball over the plate, noted by his low walk ratio, so he was giving them pitches. I looked at a video of one game. There were some OF fly balls which would probably have been catchable by a speedy ML outfielder followed by some throws to home which again could have gotten there a little sooner with better outfielders. His AAA outing showed he was ready to give it a shot in the majors, but I would expect a short outing.
September 1st, 2011 at 10:42 am
I've been at all Strasburg's MiLB rehab appearances except the latest in Syracuse, and I watched that one on tv. the start he had trouble in Hagerstown was a combination..it was his third start, so he might have had a dead arm, not unlike spring training. since he throws so many strikes, the team he faced had instructions to swing at everything. and the defense behind him was less than spectacular.
September 1st, 2011 at 10:48 am
25 K v 3 BB and only 1 HR in 14.1 IP?
I think we can chalk the high ERA up to small sample size and some random flukiness. . . . .
September 1st, 2011 at 10:51 am
Wow, pulling out a subset of a small sample size to give meaning to the rest of a small sample. Cool!
September 1st, 2011 at 10:59 am
I think at this stage the Nats are encouraged that none of his pitches in his rehab work crossed the plate with his arm still attached to it.
September 1st, 2011 at 11:46 am
One thing you gotta admit: the kid has chutzpah!
I believe that we can probably attribute the elevated ERA to a combination of small sample size, getting the hitch back into his britches, and one flukish {is that even a word???} bad outing.
September 1st, 2011 at 12:19 pm
I heard on ESPN radio yesterday that Strasburg plans to change from mainly throwing heat to integrating more movement and possibly a bit less at the top end. 'Twill be interesting to follow.
September 1st, 2011 at 12:45 pm
@8 -- That sounds like the beginning of the end of his dominance.
I'll never forget the Mets' oft-stated intention of altering Dwight Gooden's approach so as to induce more contact and save some bullets in his gun. I don't know how far they ever got with that plan, but there's no denying that the minute Gooden stopped fanning a batter an inning, he ceased to be a special pitcher.
September 1st, 2011 at 2:01 pm
The problem with Strasburg is the way the Nationals have rushed him, maybe because he's the sole gate attraction for that franchise. Look at 2010, his very first profesional year: 178 2/3 innings among minors and MLB, instead of giving him more seasoning through the minors. The result to show? Tommy John surgery. We hope they ain't rushing him again...
September 1st, 2011 at 2:18 pm
@ 8 and 9. I had the same thought JA. There is a difference, I think, between stating you plan to change your approach and simply refining you pitching style, which happens with all successful pitchers. With Gooden, it seems the plan was the former. We shall see with Strasburg.
September 1st, 2011 at 2:57 pm
@10, Jose -- B-R has Strasburg at 123.1 IP last year: 68 in the majors, 55.1 minors. What is your source for that 178 number?
September 1st, 2011 at 3:01 pm
Enough about Strasburg, we get Tommy Milone on Saturday!
Milone is Strasburg's polar opposite, and it's pretty awesome no watch him. I've seen him pitch a couple times live (I have family in the Syracuse area), and watching him throw what looked to me like three different curveballs to AAA hitters and having them swing out of their shoes was pretty hilarious. He did it three straight times to Jorge Vazquez in a start earlier this month. Sadly, he walked 2 in his last start, which brought his K/BB ratio for the season under 10 - only 155 K's to his 16 walks. No idea if what he's doing will work in the majors, but I'm on the bandwagon.
Strasburg's cool too though, I guess, if you like your pitchers to be awesome in the traditional sort of way.
September 1st, 2011 at 3:05 pm
@12
Your (B-R) numbers are correct on Strasburg. Considering the way he was dominating in the minors, it's fair to consider whether the Nats were too slow with him.
There was a lot of talk about Strasburg being pushed last year. I watched a lot of him, and I didn't see him. The Nats used him carefully, and his elbow still popped. Maybe it was a fluke thing, or maybe he is injury prone, but if it's the latter the Nat's don't deserve blame for it. Suppose it's easier for fans to blame Nats' management rather than accept the dude is injury prone though.
September 1st, 2011 at 3:14 pm
The problem with Strasburg is the way the Nationals have rushed him, maybe because he's the sole gate attraction for that franchise. Look at 2010, his very first profesional year: 178 2/3 innings among minors and MLB, instead of giving him more seasoning through the minors. The result to show? Tommy John surgery. We hope they ain't rushing him again...
Absurd. What was "seasoning" going to do for him? He's probably been better than most MLB starters since he was 20. Pitching in the minors is still pitching, it's not like his arm was being kept on ice until he got to the bigs. They were very protective. At any point in baseball history before 2000 or so, he would have pitched over 200 IP last year (unless he got hurt), and probably most of it in the majors.
September 1st, 2011 at 3:19 pm
I do think Strasburg pitched in the 2009 Arizona Fall League, but I doubt that was anything close to 50 IP. Maybe more like 15.
September 1st, 2011 at 3:40 pm
@12 You're right. I added 55 twice. Still, my point is, a 20 year old guy needs seasoning before pitching at MLB level. Check the David Clyde story back in the '70's. Remember the "Joba Rules"... Anyway, you can be as protective as you want and that doesn't not necesarily prevent against injuries, like in Joba's and Strasburg's cases.
September 1st, 2011 at 4:59 pm
He got "seasoned" in college. He was 22 years old when he came up to the majors. He had absolutely nothing to prove in the minors. The comparison to David Clyde, who was not major league ready and only used as an attendance promotion, is pointless. Strasburg never threw more than 99 pitches or 7 IP in a game in the majors. If they had called that kid-glove handling the "Strasburg Statutes," would that have been appeased you?
September 1st, 2011 at 5:14 pm
Dear Johnny Twisto: I'm very respecful of your opinions. I'm just trying to make a point. If you don't agree with me, I'm ok. Let me point out a few things, before closing the subject: 1) College is not profesional. If was, there wouldn't be minors. 2) Maybe the Nats rushed Strasburg, maybe not. I don't have the final say and I suspect nobody has; 3) Fact is: he needed Tommy John surgery after only 68 IP in MLB and in his 1st year as profesional. Handling top pitching prospects is not easy and SS's case is proof of that; 4) Because of that experience, my guess is they'll be more cautious - with him or with any top pitching prospect. Thank you!
September 1st, 2011 at 5:26 pm
@ Jose Rodriguez
There are perhaps criticisms to be made about the Nats handling of Strasburg, but that he needed "more seasoning" isn't one of them. Perhaps you don't quite understand what "seasoning" means in that context. It means that a player's skill set is not quite up to MLB level so they are either not promoted from the minors or demoted back to the minors. No such issue exists with Strasburg.
Strasburg, not even a year out of college, was destroying the minors: ERA of 1.30, K/9 over 10, K/BB over 5. He was basically playing catch out there.
Then he came to the majors, and only upped his K/9 to over 12 while still walking roughly the same number of batters, going about as deep as you'd expect a pitcher of his age and experience go to, except for maybe his last few starts before he got injured, and he only got bombed once in 12 starts--didn't give up more than 4R, 3ER in any of the other 11 starts.
Strasburg did not need seasoning then and given how many batters he has sent back to the dugout bat in hand during his recent rehab starts he doesn't need any seasoning now. He mostly looks like the guy he was last year and then he looked like he would be in the class of Lincecum and Kershaw and other young star NL starters. In fact, I'll go out on a limb here and say that not only did his stuff look nastier, but he looked better at a younger age/less service time than either of them.
TJS is like getting a tooth pulled nowadays. Guys come back pretty much the same. While Strasburg isn't guaranteed to win a few Cy Young awards and get 3000Ks and make the Hall of Fame and all of the other predictions that were made for him last year, he looks as likely to do those things as you can expect of a guy with not even 100 MLB innings under his belt. Personally I think of him as a (right-handed) Randy Johnson type, only he already knows how to pitch a little bit and it took Johnson a while (and a little bit of Nolan Ryan advice) to figure that out.
September 1st, 2011 at 5:38 pm
Jose Rodriguez, in your response to Johnny Twisto, you don't acknowledge that the term you are using "seasoning" has little to do with the criticisms you are making and not really supporting well.
Also, at no point do you show that he wouldn't have been injured in the minors. You are aware that pitching prospects get injured and need TJS and shoulder surgery in the minors as well as the majors, right? And you are aware that Strasburg got injured in August--when he still would've been pitching in the minors, yeah?
And you are aware that Strasburg's workload from the moment the Nats signed him until he got injured was not only not excessive, but it was quite normal, hmm?
Let me state this more clearly: protecting young pitchers' arms such as the infamous "Joba Rules" (which aren't very specific to Joba or the Yankees organization) are absolutely not the same as "seasoning". While you can argue that building up to the workload of a long season is a part of seasoning, it is not at all the central idea embodied in the term.
September 1st, 2011 at 5:40 pm
It's simple...you guys are talking about two different things. One is arm strength and stamina, and the other is skill. Skill-wise, Strasburg clearly had nothing to prove before his promotion to the majors either last year or this year. Stamina-wise, it's open for debate.
September 1st, 2011 at 6:05 pm
Andy, stop being so concise. Geez.
September 1st, 2011 at 6:05 pm
Well, since english is to me a second language - and I'm not afraid of telling you about, maybe I misused the term "seasoning"; to me, "seasoning" is precisely "building up to the workload of a long season". Or, as Andy says, to me, Strasburg needed "arm strenght and stamina before his promotion to the majors".
Let me transcribe what Whitey Herzog said about David Clyde and how I see some parallel with Strasburg, al least in that poing: "I agree to pitch Clyde two games, then farm him out to the minors, where he could build his arm and confidence over a couple of years. I figured you'd pitch him a little, let him get a few big-leaguers out, then send him home in August. You'd ship him to the instructional league that fall, where he could get good coaching and pitch with guys his age. Next year, 200 innings at Double-A; the year after that, 150 or so at Triple-A. Then you bring him up to stay. I don't give a damn how good he is, that's how you develop a young pitcher" (Whitey Herzog with Jonathan Pitts, "You're missin' a great game", p. p. 169-170).
I was talking about "building his arm and confidence", not about skills he have to prove in minors.
Thank you, everybody!!!
September 1st, 2011 at 6:11 pm
Handling top pitching prospects is not easy
On this, we certainly agree. I certainly don't know what the optimal development plan is. It's probably different for every pitcher, but there may be no way to definitively know what works for each one. My feeling is that teams may have gone too far in babying young arms.
Because of that experience, my guess is they'll be more cautious - with him or with any top pitching prospect.
I just don't know what they could do to be *more* cautious. They were cautious. A lot of people think he got hurt because of his motion. How can we know he wouldn't have gotten hurt at the same time had he stayed in the minors all year?
Looking a little closer, I'd say that what Washington might have done wrong is be *too* cautious with Strasburg in the minors. He made 11 starts in the minors, averaging 5 IP per. In his 6 AAA starts, he averaged 77 pitches. Maybe going from that up to the mid-90s he was at in the majors was stressful. I don't know. I remember early this season there was some scuttlebutt about the Yankees calling up 20-year-old AA prospect Manny Banuelos to start for them. I couldn't see any way he'd be ready, talent aside, because he was averaging under 5 IP per start.
Anyway, in Strasburg, we have a guy who was nearly 22, an age at which many, many people have pitched in the majors. A solidly built guy. Someone used to throwing 100+ pitches in college starts. And with the talent -- right then -- to be among the best SP in baseball. You can't keep someone like that in bubble wrap forever. Any time a pitcher throws the ball, there's a risk of injury.
September 1st, 2011 at 6:13 pm
@17, I understand what you're saying, but I don't think rushing him or giving him extra seasoning (am I talking about a pitcher, or a turkey?) would have made a difference. In fact, your Joba reference is a good example of the dangers young and developing pitchers face, no matter how much a team attempts to minizme injury risks. Sometimes it's just in the cards; sometimes it's just bad luck.
The Yankees went to great pains to ensure Chamberlain wasn't over used, creating the new famous, some would say infamous, Joba Rules, a cute play on words, if nothing else. There are those who believe that pitchers today are babied, and that the Joba Rules actually contributed to Chamberlain's injury, or at the very least, they use it as an example of why it's pointless to limit pitchers' innings to such a degree. They're going to get injured anyway, they say, so get the most of them possible. They are wrong on both counts.
It wasn't until Brian Cashman acknowledged earlier this year what many had been whispering for over two years, which was that Chamberlain injured his arm in August 2008 in a game against the Rangers. What Cashman didn't say, and which is key to this discussion, was how Chamberlain injured his arm. It had nothing to do with being babied, or the Joba Rules, or getting enough seasoning. It was a fluke injury. The Yankee catcher that game was Ivan Rodriquez and in a play that saw the ball bounce in the dirt away from him, Rodriquez fired the ball down to second to try and catch the runner. Unfortunately the ball was heading right toward Chamberlain's head, who then dove to the ground to avoid the ball, unfortunately jamning his right arm as he hit the ground. Joba flexed his arm as he got up and over the next inning or so his shoulder continued to tighten. It's unknown if the damage was completely caused by the fall or if by continuing to pitch after the fall he caused additional damage, but the point is it had nothing to do with the Joba Rules. It's just one of those baseball things. He was shut down for a month, came back without his best fastball, and it's never returned since. Chamberlain this year has now undergone TJ surgery, although it has nothing to do with the fall, or the Joba Rules. He was a high-risk, high-reward signing by the Yankees since his motion was viewed as a problem that might lead to TJ surgery.
That brings me back to Strasburg (I know, it's been a journey), who was viewed by many scouts as having the talent to walk right off the college campus and into the major leagues. There were two potential red flags on him. He developed his fastball later than most, picking up a good ten miles or so while in college. His arm wasn't used to the greater stress that comes with that greater velocity. He also had a motion that a number of talent evaluators believed would lead to TJ surgery. They were right. He would have suffered this injury if he was throwing innings in the minors or the majors. From the Nat's perspective, they should be happy it happened now and he can get the surgery out of the way early in his career and development. I guess the worry now is will it happen again.
The other question with Strasburg is how much can they depend on him in 2012? He pitched all of 123 innings in 2010. So far in 2011 he's pitched fourteen innings. Maybe he pitches 40 or so total this year, maybe. The can certainly stretch him out a little more in the off season, but how much can they really count on him in 2012, and how far should they really push him? As Joe Nathan showed this year, it's one thing to come back within a year of TJ surgery, but it's entirely another thing to be effective. That might take another six months to a year, and that's with actual pitching to build the strength and for the pitcher to learn how to command his pitches with his rebuilt elbow.
Strasburg has a long way to go and I don't think it would be wise for the Nats to have him pitch next year much more than the 120 innings he did in 2010. That means it's probably 2013 before the "real" Strasburg shows up in Washington.
September 1st, 2011 at 6:27 pm
Thank you, Johnny Twisto. We still disagree in a couple of points, but we agree in one: handling top pitching prospects is not easy. Taking your own point: If he averaged 5 IP per game in the minors and/or 77 pitches, going from that to mid-90s - and at MLB level - maybe (or for sure? who knows?) WAS stressful. What does that mean? That before they promote him to the majors, maybe they would do better increasing his workload in the minors (from 77 to 90's) and then make the promotion. And if that's true (you accepted it as a possibility), then is preposterous to say they had rushed him to MLB? Maybe not...
You mentioned Bañuelos... Yankees fans - maybe Yankees management - would prefer having Bañuelos pitching instead of A. J. Burnett, for example. Is a valid temptation, isn't it? But why they don't pull that trigger? For the same reason you pointed out: he's still averaging 5 IP per start, so you can't asume that he will go up to pitch 6 innings at MLB level, not at this point. As you can see, your point not necessarily exclude mine.
September 1st, 2011 at 6:36 pm
@26 Thank you, Miles, a very interesting comment. I agree with you in one point: Injuries come in kind of stupid forms, many of them, and your Joba story is a good example. My point with Strasburg is: If you bring a guy from College and in his first professional year he pitch 123.1 innings, including 68 at MLB level, maybe you're rushing him, no matter how good he could be. He could need to build up arm strenght, without pressure, in minors, before promoting him up.
September 1st, 2011 at 7:01 pm
@28, Jose, to be clear, I wasn't entirely dismissing what you were saying. Some of it comes down to the word "seasoning," (and, btw, your English is better than those who claim it as their first language, so don't worry there!).
Is JT hinted at (or that's how I took it), the Nats may not be above some questioning here, but it's less on the seasoning side and how they used him. It seemed he had an arm issue later last season and after resting him they let him go back out and pitch again, leading to the TJ surgery. Perhaps they pushed him too hard, and it's possible if he was still in the minors they might have shut him down entirely, perhaps avoiding the injury.
Overall, though, I don't buy it, because if that's the case, by perhaps avoiding an injury last September, they simply delayed it from happening sometime this year. I do think it was inevitable with Strasburg from what I've read about his motion.
September 1st, 2011 at 7:13 pm
Jose, you've done a great job making your meaning clear even if English is not your first language. Please keep coming back to share your opinions with us.
September 1st, 2011 at 7:15 pm
@29 Thanks a lot, Miles. Very polite and gentleman; I really appreciate your thoughts on my english and my comments. I think the bottom line about injuries and prospect-handling is kind of a lottery. Nobody knows "the right thing to do". MLB teams just get a plan and stick to it, whatever happens. If succeded, managers, GM, are genious; if not, they're going to get blamed
September 1st, 2011 at 7:31 pm
Thank you, Andy. Really encouraging words. Appreciated. Sincerely, Jose
September 1st, 2011 at 9:26 pm
The Nationals generally treated Strasburg carefully last year, but the only place where you could potentially criticize them is after he was scratched minutes before his July 27 start (I was there, paying Strasburg prices for six innings of surprisingly good Miguel Bautista pitching), but came back for three starts before the injury.
But even there, he didn't pitch for two weeks, and though he got roughed up in the next start, his three post-scratch starts show 17 K in 13.2 IP with only 15 baserunners, albeit a 5.27 ERA and not many innings.
I'm not sure what they could have done more, sadly. Shut him down on July 27? I do worry about bringing him back to MLB action in '11, but I'll still be there to watch him Tuesday.
September 1st, 2011 at 9:32 pm
Anyone who's been listening to the ESPN baseball podcasts knows that the REAL question after TJ is whether the velocity is still there, because control is the last thing to come. If the velocity isn't there, it never comes back.
I expect Strasburg to have a couple brilliant performances, and bomb a couple times this year, becoming the pitcher we thought we'd see next year. It's PRECISELY what happened to teammate Jordan Zimmermann.
September 1st, 2011 at 11:03 pm
You guys keep on talking about 'seasoning' - 'stamina' - 'confidence', for reasons Strasbourg got hurt. That's not it at all.
All I saw was tons of overhype and a kid trying to live up to it.
I remember watching his first game; and the whole baseball world was holding their breath. I remember hearing - 'Ryan's fastball with Blyleven's curve with Pedro's change-up and Maddux's control. They were interviewing veterans on the opposing team (Pirates) before the game, not about themselves, but about Strasbourg. How humiliating is that.
I also recall, the Nats held his debut back, so he could face Pittsburg at home his first outing. I think the rational there, was - 'give him a weak team to make mince meat of in front of the home crowd, let him tear them apart' - and he did.
I, after I swore I wouldn't, even got caught up in the hype. But I remember thinking then - 'this kids over throwing, trying to hard'. Every pitch, he looked so intense. Every pitch looked as though he was throwing 110%. Every pitch looked like a kid was trying to do everything the team hyped him to do.
With all the talk about him hitting 100 on the gun and still throwing 3 other plus pitches, plus the weight and expectations the Nats placed on his shoulders, made him try and make the perfect pitch every time.
I think it was the Nats first sell out crowd that year. Their season avg. was just over 20,000 per game. At Strasbourg's debut there was over 40,000, many of who had Strasbourg jerseys on.
Imagine the first time you put on your Jersey, there are 10,000 people putting on that same Jersey, which they just spent $140 on.
He didn't pace himself. He was throwing, not pitching. He wanted 21 SOs, not 14.
If he pitched at 80% for a few starts (to hell with the hype and letting the fans down) just got that monkey off his back. Just pitched to the batter, not to the league's expectation, he wouldn't of blown out his arm.
Pedro showed that you didn't have to throw over 95 to overpower a hitter. Pedro's 90 mph fastball blew hitters away because it looked 100, because he mixed it so well. And when he occasionally needed a big pitch, he had enough in his tank to hit 95-97 mph, but only 2-3 times a game (I'm talking vintage Pedro btw).
Strasbourg shouldn't of worried about the fans, his ERA, his SO and definitely not his IP or pitch count, not anything else except learning the league, not destroying it in one day. And I hold the Nats fully responsible for putting too much on him too early. The kid overthrew, not the number of pitches, but each pitch.
September 2nd, 2011 at 12:05 am
Hey Twisto, I'm sure that those Yankee fans who wouldn't mind giving Banuelos a shot (despite the <5 IP per outing) figure that AJ usually has his meltdown before then anyway. Other than tonight, somehow.
September 2nd, 2011 at 12:45 am
Duke, I respect your opinion, because I don't think I'm very good at judging body language. I watched Strasburg's first start, and I didn't notice him looking that intense. I did notice him looking impressive as hell. His stuff was phenomenal. I don't think it's fair to conclude that he wouldn't have blown out his arm if he just eased up a little. I don't think any of us have a clue what his ligaments looked like, and I doubt many of us have much idea about what causes pitcher injuries.
Vintage Pedro was definitely throwing 95 regularly.
September 2nd, 2011 at 12:58 am
having Bañuelos pitching instead of A. J. Burnett ... is a valid temptation, isn't it? But why they don't pull that trigger? For the same reason you pointed out: he's still averaging 5 IP per start, so you can't asume that he will go up to pitch 6 innings at MLB level, not at this point.
Yes, but there are differences between him and Strasburg. Strasburg was the #1 prospect baseball, and not just that, but the top pitching prospect in at least 10 years (Mark Prior). Banuelos is a good prospect but hardly on the same level. Strasburg was a couple years older. Strasburg had a solid workload in college, while Banuelos has pitched professionally since 17 and I'll bet has never thrown 100 pitches in a game. Strasburg is a pretty big guy while Banuelos is not (maybe pitcher size is overrated; apparently the Dodgers traded Pedro since they didn't think he was big enough to start. But most MLB pitchers are bigger than average, so I'm guessing it has some importance.) And the Nats had spots to plug Strasburg into, while the Yankees (despite all the constant doom-and-gloom) have had very good pitching this season (and have been trying to fit 6 starters into 5 spots for the past month).
And Jose, I know I can get brusque at times. As the others said, your contributions are welcomed. If I see an argument I think is thin, or simply wrong, I go after it. If you can defend yourself, hopefully I'll learn something.
September 2nd, 2011 at 2:31 am
Just for comparison:
-- Tim Lincecum pitched 63 innings in the minors, then had 143 IP in his rookie year, averaging 100 pitches per game. He's never been hurt.
-- Felix Hernandez had 84 IP as a 19-year-old rookie, averaging 101 pitches, then at least 190 IP every year from age 20 on. He's never been hurt.
-- Rick Porcello had 171 IP as a 20-year-old rookie, averaging 90 pitches. He's been in the rotation 2 years since then and hasn't been hurt.
-- Trevor Cahill had 179 IP as a 21-year-old rookie, averaging 94 pitches. He was near 200 IP last year and should be around that this year; he hasn't been hurt.
-- Madison Bumgarner, Clayton Kershaw, Matt Cain, etc.
Every time a hot young pitcher gets hurt, folks try to pin it on someone. But there's no science in that. Nobody really knows for sure the best way to handle young pitchers. For every one that got X treatment and got hurt, there's another with the same background who got the same treatment and didn't get hurt, and yet another who got Y treatment and did get hurt. All we can say for sure is that the recent era of kid-gloves treatment does not seem to have reduced the injury rate. Pitching is an inherently risky business.
And it makes no sense to think that Washington didn't act in both Strasburg's and their own best long-term interests. Does anyone really think that they cared more about a few sellout crowds than about having him in their rotation for years to come?
And the hype didn't come from Washington, for goodness' sake; the hype came with the package. The kid was nationally known long before he was even drafted. He was called the best pitching prospect ever, and when you look what he's done in the pros so far, when you watched him pitch, it doesn't seem like hype.
Maybe he's been "overthrowing" or whatever since he first started to get national notice in college, trying to live up to expectations. Who can say? Who can even say where the line is between "trying to live up to expectations" and simply trying to be the best pitcher he can be?
I felt awful for the Nats when he got hurt, because I honestly believe they did everything they reasonably could do to hold him back and to temper expectations. It's just not reasonable to look at the whole package of circumstances -- a historic (and expensive) talent, toying with minor-league hitters -- and think that the club could say, you know, he really needs a couple of years in the minors to build up his arm strength, and it doesn't matter if he puts up a 1.00 ERA, we're not bringing him up. That's a fantasy world. Their fans would have rebelled.
September 2nd, 2011 at 8:22 am
Strasburg's mechanics weren't very good, maybe with another fifteen or so minor league starts the Nationals's staff would have straightened him out to the point he wouldn't have needed TJ.
September 2nd, 2011 at 9:54 am
@38 Thank you, Johnny Twisto. I really understand your way of going after an argument you consider wrong: you, like me, are passionate in your baseball arguments, which makes baseball discussions very interesting.
Speaking about Bañuelos' size, well, you can't expect him to grow up, so the NYY have high expectations about him they way he is. As you wrote, the size of pitchers has some importance, though not in Pedro's case.
Anyway, if they figure him out as starter, and they do, because all his games in the last two years have been starts so far, they will have to increase his workload.
Btw, Duke and you mentioned Pedro. It's a very interesting subject to me, because is a fellow dominican; his case speaks a lot about random involved in baseball decisions - including the Nats' handling of Strasburg, for that matter. And how does that means labels: Delino Deshields was a good player (he had a few good seasons after the Dodgers get rid of him), but he will always be remembered only for one thing: he's the player for whom Dodgers traded Pedro; same thing with Lou Gorman, the man who traded Jeff Bagwell for a 39 years-old relief pitcher, and so on.
September 2nd, 2011 at 12:31 pm
They probably can't make Banuelos taller, but presumably he will fill out a bit as he gets older. The stronger the rest of his body is, perhaps it puts less stress on his arm. (Or maybe I'm talking out of my ass. I'm no physiologist...)
September 2nd, 2011 at 11:36 pm
JA (If your still reading this thread)
You said:
"And it makes no sense to think that Washington didn't act in both Strausburg's and their own best long-term interests. Does anyone really think that they cared more about a few sellout crowds than about having him in their rotation for years to come?"
I didn't say they acted against their long term interests or were short sighted, I said they could of brought it down a notch or two.
Of course they didn't care about his first game as much as they cared about his career, but that doesn't mean they went about it in the best way.
I think every team needs less trainers and more psychologists and guys who can prepare young athletes for the sporting life. The girls, booze, media, money, the emotions, the crowds, the ups and downs and the stress.
ESPN, MLB and the Nats all could of realized that our country is in two wars - one of them the longest in US history - and told a 20 year old, that it is OK to not be perfect.
September 4th, 2011 at 1:05 pm
Well, guys, as many of you already know, Washington Nationals had announced they'll set a number of innings for Stephen Strasburg next season. I was refering to something like that, when I wrote about them being "more cautious" with him.
September 4th, 2011 at 9:32 pm
What is the number?
I'm pretty sure they had a cap on him last season, too. I can't remember if it was publicized. I seem to recall some talk about his getting shut down before the end of the season (without injury).