Random recap for Monday 8/22: The day Milwaukee clinched
Posted by John Autin on August 23, 2011
-- Book it: The NL Central race is over. Milwaukee has a 9-game lead on St. Louis; they only split their doubleheader with Pittsburgh, but the Cards blew a 1-0 lead in the 9th and fell to LA.
- Just 10 of the Brewers' last 32 games are against teams with a winning record (6 vs. STL, 4 vs. PHI). Even if they go as bad as 15-17, the Cards would have to go 25-9 just to tie.
- Before their 23-of-27 stretch, the Crew were a half-game behind both the Cards and Pirates. The first win put them in front, and they haven't looked back.
- It's barely worth mentioning their soft schedule during this run -- 6-0 vs. dreadful Houston, 4-0 vs. collapsing Pittsburgh, 3-0 vs. irrelevant Chicago, 3-0 against the swooning Mets, 3-1 vs. the meandering Dodgers, 4-2 vs. the idling Cards. Or that before tonight, St. Louis actually had a better run differential than Milwaukee; those 1-run games are gone (Brewers 27-15, Redbirds 17-20), and they're not coming back.
-- Alex Avila's 15th HR, a 2-run shot in the 2nd, turned around a 1-0 deficit and helped Justin Verlander earn his 19th win. Avila's August resurgence has lifted his slashes back up to .302/.397/.521, and has put him among the AL leaders in Wins Above Replacement for position players. He already led all catchers this year with a 153 OPS+.
- Verlander upped his MLB-high K total to 212 and trimmed his ERA to 2.28. He has 13 games of at least 7 IP and no more than 1 run allowed, 2nd in MLB to Jered Weaver's 14; Verlander has 12 wins in those games, Weaver 9. No one has had more than 15 such games in a season since 2002 (Randy Johnson, 16).
-- Cleveland fell 5.5 games behind Detroit on a bad night for Chris Perez. He entered a tie game in the 9th and hit the first 2 batters, then erred on a sac bunt to load the bases with no outs; the winning run was a mere formality.
- Ichiro Suzuki has 4 RBI in his last 24 games, 2 of them on solo HRs.
-- Jair Jurrjens allowed the Cubs 8 hits and 5 walks in 6.1 IP, but no runs. In the last 20 years, there have been just 2 other scoreless starts with at least 13 baserunners in 7 IP or less, by Mike Hampton (for the Braves in 2004) and Terry Mulholland (for the Cubs in 1999).
- 30 HRs and a 30-game hitting streak in the same season (corrected list): Rogers Hornsby, Joe DiMaggio, Nomar Garciaparra (exactly 30 of each), Vladimir Guerrero, Albert Pujols, Chase Utley, Ryan Zimmerman, Dan Uggla. Probably just chance that 7 out of 8 hit right-handed.
-- Washington put another icepack on Arizona's cold streak, handing them their 6th straight loss (all on the road), while running their own home record to 37-25. Jayson Werth hit a 3-run HR, and Ross Detwiler had his 2nd straight start of 1 run in 6+ IP; he has a 2.89 ERA in 5 starts. The Snakes have scored 6 runs on 28 hits in the 6 losses.
-- The Red Sox were shut out for the 2nd time in 6 days and the 9th time this season, matching their season high since 1993. With a lineup missing Jacoby Ellsbury, Kevin Youkilis and David Ortiz, they were held to 4 singles by C.J. Wilson and parade of relievers.
-- Phillies 10, Mets zip: What more do you need to know?
August 23rd, 2011 at 1:09 am
John Mayberry Jr is trying to slug his way into the starting lineup. 25 of his 51 hits are for extra bases. Are you paying attention, Raul Ibanez?
August 23rd, 2011 at 1:18 am
And yet Phillies fans will never get to see him in a full-time role; the expectation is that next year he will L/R platoon with Dom Brown in left.
August 23rd, 2011 at 3:59 am
Hey JA,
I heard if you jinx the Brewers, Prince Fielder pays you a visit, and he ain't bringing flowers or wine. But, I may have to back you here. Without a true ace the Cards should fold (pun [and bad]).
My only concern, is Ryan Braun is going to steal the BA title away from the mighty, but badly hamstrung, Jose Reyes. The hapless Mets, have just but one thing to root for this year, and its not Jason Bay reaching 10 HRs. Its winning our first BA crown. Let those lousy brewmeisters from Milwaukee have their silly post season... just leave some crumbs for our Mets and let us take some pride in Reyes, during this unforgiving season of woe and misery.
For their dollar, the Mets have paid some of, or all of these players salaries this season.
Gary Mathews JR (0 G)
Oliver Perez (0 IP)
Bobby Bonilla (0 G)
Johan Santana (0 IP)
Louis Castillo (0 G)
Ike Davis
Ryota Igarashi
Chris Young (4 GS)
Frankie Rodriguez
and Carlos Beltran, Jason Bay and David Wright - 52.5 million for 34 HRs
One good Met fact tonight, the pitching matchup - LEE VS GEE. WHOOPEE!!
August 23rd, 2011 at 4:26 am
Just curious if that 30 HRs and a 30-game hitting streak was a complete list . . .
August 23rd, 2011 at 7:23 am
Are you saying "The Cardinals are done"?
🙂
August 23rd, 2011 at 7:24 am
Elias do some good things, but their recap of the day let them down, and nowadays people notice things:
"[Jayson Werth's] .862 slugging percentage against the Diamondbacks over the last three seasons is the highest for any major-league player who has more than 55 at-bats against them in that span."
Werth has 50 total bases in 58 AB which is indeed .862.
The problem is, Play Index points out that Alfonso Soriano has 60 TB in 55 AB, which gives a slugging percentage of 1.091, and which is clearly better than Werth.
So Elias are technically correct...but if Soriano goes 0 for 1, or even 0 for 14, he would replace Werth at the head of this little list.
The moral: choose your qualifiers with care. For any kind of slugging percentage champion, the qualifier should be X total bases, not Y at-bats.
Rant over. Thank you for your patience.
August 23rd, 2011 at 7:25 am
John Mayberry's on pace for 30 HR over a full season
August 23rd, 2011 at 7:33 am
those 6 games against the cardinals pack a double variance punch. Suppose the Brewers lose all 6? then if they go 15-11 against the rest, the cards need to go 19-9 against their rest. that doesn't look quite as insurmountable.
Or worse, suppose they lose 6 to the cards and break even on the rest. that's really bad, but not completely implausible as a worst case scenario. Then the cards need to go 17-11 to tie. That's also plausible.
That's three plausible but low probability events that have to happen just to get the tie, so clearly the Cards' chances are quite slim, slimmer even than the 78 yankees' at this point in the season, but "clinch" looks like an overstatement.
August 23rd, 2011 at 8:40 am
Alex Avila has a chance to be very good...was back in Michigan last week and watched a lot of Tiger games, very solid. My only worry is Jim Leyland burning him out..Avila plays EVERYDAY and takes a beating. Why the Tigers don't have a true #2 catcher on the roster is beyond me.
August 23rd, 2011 at 9:02 am
#6 obviously they wrote that Werth stat to purposely exclude Soriano, i.e. they looked the see what the max # of PAs was they could go up to and still have Werth be #1. We do that sometimes here on the blog too--it's sort of a natural way of looking at some stats.
August 23rd, 2011 at 9:18 am
Somebody needs to remind Tony LaRussa that Cadaret, Honeycutt, and Nelson are no longer active players, and that Fernando Salas doesn't bear any resemblance at all to a certain Mr. Eckersley.....
August 23rd, 2011 at 9:40 am
The Brewers are 21-24 against teams with a winning record. But, only Cincinnati from their division has a better record (31-32). The telling stat is that the Crew has played just 45 games against "better" opponents. It reminds me of the Twins the last 5 or 6 years.
August 23rd, 2011 at 10:10 am
@1, Gonzo -- Mayberry also has 33 of 66 career hits for extra bases.
Got a look at him last night in a couple of ABs before I had to black out the Mets game. I don't believe I've ever seen such a tall righty hitter in such a crouched stance. It sure is working for him, though.
August 23rd, 2011 at 10:17 am
@5, Andy -- I would never try to piggyback on "The Phillies Are Done" -- that's entered the Prognostication Pantheon, right up there with "Dewey Defeats Truman."
I'm just trying to stir the pot and see if there are any rabid Redbird rooters who still think they're in it. 🙂
August 23rd, 2011 at 10:19 am
@4, Anonymous -- To the best of my knowledge, yes -- the list of 30-HR / 30-game hit streak seasons was meant to be complete.
I did take a shortcut and work from Baseball Almanac's list of the longest hitting streaks, rather than generate my own from the Play Index. So my report is only as good as their data.
August 23rd, 2011 at 10:47 am
@8, Michael -- For sure, "clinch" was a deliberate overstatement. I usually refrain from hyperbole, but this time I indulged.
To counter your points, though:
1. Yes, if St. Louis sweeps those 6 games with Milwaukee, it could be a race again. What are the odds? On a pure probability scale, and rating the teams as dead even, there's just a 1/64 chance (1.6%) of sweeping the 6. And even if that long shot comes in, the Cards still have to make up 3 more games to tie.
2. The schedule adds to Milwaukee's advantage. Of their remaining 32 games, 18 are at home, where they are 47-16. The Cards have even more home games left, but they've been ordinary at home this year. And the Cards more games against top teams -- besides 4 at Philly (Milwaukee's Philly 4 are at home), they have 3 games with Atlanta, who is tied with Milwaukee for the 2nd-best record.
3. Comparing to the most famous huge comeback: The 1951 Giants were 13 games back, with 44 to play. That famous reference point was obviously chosen for dramatic effect, since the Giants won 16 straight from that day and cut the lead to 5 games with 28 to go. With 33 games to play (the average of St. Louis and Milwaukee today), those Giants were 8 games out. Even after winning 11 straight, they had to go 26-7 just to tie the Dodgers.
4. The Cardinals' haven't won 5 straight all year. Doesn't mean they can't do that, or won't. But they're not winning this race.
August 23rd, 2011 at 10:58 am
@9, DaveZ -- For sure, Avila's workload has increased almost every month; in August, he's played every inning of every game but one.
But the fact that he's rebounded from a poor July with a killer August --1.343 OPS -- somewhat lessens my concern about him wearing down. Still, it would be nice if the Tigers could hold this 5-game lead for a while and give Avila a few days off.
August 23rd, 2011 at 11:33 am
Not to "jinx" anything, but when's the last time a pitcher got his 20th win in August?
August 23rd, 2011 at 12:09 pm
'at a boy JA, nice Brewers post, how many people here honestly knew they had a 9 game lead this morning, the largest for any division leader (yes I know the competition is weaker).
[Stolen from mlb.com] The best August records of all-time are:
1906 CHC 26-3
1936 NYG 24-3
2002 OAK 24-4
.......
2011 MIL 17-4 with 7 games left
Now that I posted this they will lose tonight, but I am not concerned about JA's jinx, the Brewers are going to win the division, and at least split 3-3 with the Cards going forward. That means besides those 6 if the Brewers went 10-16 the Cards would still need to go 20-8 to tie.
August 23rd, 2011 at 12:21 pm
@19, Topper009 -- As the saying goes (or used to go) -- "This Bud's for you!"
August 23rd, 2011 at 1:00 pm
@20, That is considered an insult in Wisconsin, we prefer Miller, Pabst, Schlitz, Blatz, Old Style, Leinies etc, etc. But thanks anyways.
August 23rd, 2011 at 1:39 pm
@18, Buddy - Curt Schilling got his 20th win on August 16th in 2002. From my (likely very poorly done) hunting that's the most recent occurrence of a pitcher getting 20 wins through the end of August.
August 23rd, 2011 at 1:49 pm
@12: Yep. Still hope that Milwaukee tears it up in the playoffs, though....unlike MN, at least they won't run into the Yankees right away 😉
@21: Grain Belt?
I think that it was John Autin who reminded me that pitchers (almost) never win the MVP, but since it's on topic, I'll comment again, that my MVP vote goes to Verlander. It's nice that DET is showing a very slight pulse 5 months into the season. But without Verlander this team never gets anywhere close to this point, in the position that they are in.
The true definition of 'most valuable'! (Too bad that the 'p' doesn't stand for pitcher.)
August 23rd, 2011 at 1:56 pm
WRONG!!! The day the Brewers clinced was July 22, that was the day Rickey Weeks got hurt and freed the strike out constipation that was the Brewers lead-off spot!!!
August 23rd, 2011 at 1:57 pm
Look at how much better the Brewers are with out that strike out machine in the line-up. Not to mention his poor fielding and bad pivot on the double play. I am vindicated!
August 23rd, 2011 at 2:43 pm
No mention of Mike Carp's 20-game hitting streak coming to an end?
August 23rd, 2011 at 2:58 pm
@26, Genis26 -- That's where you come in! 🙂
And thanks for making me remember all over again how badly that 2008 trade worked out for the Mets....
August 23rd, 2011 at 3:00 pm
@26, Mike Trout had a hit on Sunday so the undersea hitting streak is still alive. The pressure is on now that Tim Salmon is retired. How did the Angels manage from 2007-2010 with no fish on the team? I guess they cam close with Joe Sa(Flo)unders
August 23rd, 2011 at 3:11 pm
Warning: Excited Brewers fan (and bitter Willie Wilson historian) chiming in...
@3 Duke -- I'm glad someone else is noticing that Braun has been steadily creeping up on Reyes and a potential batting title. So are you saying that no Met has ever won it? That makes a weird combo for them, when you add in the lack of a no-hitter as well! Sorry, but I'm still rooting for Braunie, esp. since the Brew Crew has never won a batting title either (Brett's .390 beat out Cooper's .352 in 1980; and Willie Wilson's wimping out on last day of 1982 season (an anti-Ted Williams move) let him edge out Yount .332 to .331 that year)
@21 Thanks for clarifying that important beer info Topper! As a loyal Brew Crew fan, I have avoided that foul-tasting Budweiser swill since the '82 Suds Series eneded the wrong way, loyally sticking with my hometown Miller or PBR, or whenever possible, nice cold Leinies!
@24 Timmy -- don't forget, they moved Weeks out of leadoff spot at least a week before he got hurt, and he was driving in runs from the five-hole pretty well. Defense? Well, that's another story, but even Prince has been turning some rather brilliant plays at first lately, so if he can do it, maybe Rickie can find a way as well.
August 23rd, 2011 at 3:20 pm
@24, Timothy -- Before you legally change your last initial to "V" for Vindicated....
Stats for Milwaukee second basemen:
Strikeouts per game:
-- Rickie Weeks, 0.93
-- All others, 0.71
-- Estimated change in Ks for the 28 games Weeks has missed: -6
Runs per game:
-- Weeks, 0.69
-- Others, 0.39
-- Estimated change in Runs for the 28 games: -8
RBI per game:
-- Weeks, 0.40
-- Others, 0.25
-- Estimated change in RBI for the 28 games: -4
Total Bases per game:
-- Weeks, 1.84
-- Others, 0.96
-- Estimated change in Total Bases for the 28 games: -25
Double plays turned per game:
-- Weeks, 0.57
-- Others, 0.57
So, let's see ... The Brewers have seen about 6 fewer strikeouts for the games Weeks has missed -- but they've lost 8 runs, 4 RBI, 25 total bases, and have turned the same number of DPs.
Maybe those 6 ABs that didn't become strikeouts, instead all went as 2-RBI groundouts?
August 23rd, 2011 at 3:26 pm
Potentially adding to JA's jinx here, i just learned that the Brew Crew are destined for the cover of SI next week, confirming my hopes/fears. That's ok, they can get a little slump out of the way in early Sept, then start a playoff roll at the end of the month!
August 23rd, 2011 at 3:30 pm
@20, 21... I though Schaffer was the one beer to have, if you're having more than one?
August 23rd, 2011 at 4:11 pm
Nice to see some love for Leinenkugel's, brewed right in Wisconsin. Surprised to see no mention for Hamm's (the beer refreshing!). It's underrated* for really cheap beer.
*I didn't say good, just underrated.
August 23rd, 2011 at 4:26 pm
@33 -- You know it Jiffy: Leinie's deserves its cult-following. Good, basic beer still kinda locally brewed. Leinie's Red is the best!
And your last comment cracks me up, accurately applying to all those other "classic" beers. Not that Hamn's, PBR, Schlitz, Blatz or "Animal Beer" (you know what i mean 🙂 are all that great, but they do taste good once in a while. That's why i was actually thrilled, at my recent trip to Wrigley for first time in 30 yrs, to see that they still serve Old Style there!
But on a day-in, day-out basis, i'll take a Leinie's and a Brewer Brat, complete with Secret Stadium Sauce, at Miller Park anyday!
August 23rd, 2011 at 4:29 pm
"-- Book it: The NL Central race is over. Milwaukee has a 9-game lead on St. Louis; they only split their doubleheader with Pittsburgh, but the Cards blew a 1-0 lead in the 9th and fell to LA."
Now you've jinxed them. Only a fool makes a prediction like that.
August 23rd, 2011 at 4:29 pm
No mention of Mike Carp's 20-game hitting streak coming to an end? . . . Mike Trout had a hit on Sunday so the undersea hitting streak is still alive.
See, it's all in knowing the right things to track.
August 23rd, 2011 at 4:36 pm
@35 -- A fool, or a person with a basic knowledge of baseball history and of probability.
BTW, I'm still a few credits shy of my B.A. in Jinxology, but I'm sure I was taught that only a fan of the team can actually initiate a jinx.
August 23rd, 2011 at 5:12 pm
@30 JA you are a master at framing the debate, but! my point is that Weeks is no longer clogging up the lead off spot, not that he is the Brewers starting second basemen! Weeks can play 2b and bat 7th and the Brewers will be better off. As Shping points out above @29 the Brewers finally saw the light and moved him out of the lead off spot about a week before he got hurt. I should have made that point clearer. And let it be known I am never for a player getting hurt, even a Brewer.
August 23rd, 2011 at 5:45 pm
Hamm's is a fine beer, but it is brewed in Minnesota, where the locals have to drive to Wisconsin to purchase beer on Sundays.
@38, Weeks is at .272/.346/.478 for 123 OPS+, pretty nice for a 2B, to go along with 2.8 WAR in only 104 games. Since he has been out the Brewers have been the best team in the bigs but his 2nd base replacements have an aggregate line of .238/.269/.250/.519. Id say the Brewers are winning in spite of Weeks injury not due to it.
Also he was removed from the 1 spot for several reasons, first they badly needed production from the 5 spot behind Prince's .415 OBP, where Casey McGehee was badly, badly failing. They tried Corey Hart there but was not comfortable and stated he did not like hitting 5. Weeks said he did not care where he was hitting, and Hart hit leadoff previously which he liked so they swapped for the team.
August 23rd, 2011 at 6:05 pm
@39 You can buy beer in Minnesota on Sunday but it's 3.2 beer and that's not good. I remember driving over to Hudson, Wisconsin on Sundays. I have no problem with Weeks bat in the 5 hole, he has power. But, he swings for the fences every time and strikes out way too much for a lead off man. I will give him some slack on leading the league in errors several times because he has improved and he has great range. He dives for ground balls also, and that's good.
August 23rd, 2011 at 6:15 pm
@15 JA - - I had asked since I know Pujols did have a 30-game hit streak in a season before and he doesn't show up on your list
August 23rd, 2011 at 7:47 pm
@41, Anonymous -- I'll check on Pujols. BTW, I did exclude players whose streaks spanned 2 seasons, if they didn't reach 30 games in the 30-HR season.
August 23rd, 2011 at 7:48 pm
No, it's on me -- Pujols had a 30-game hitting streak in 2003, and hit 43 HRs that year. Baseball Almanac had it listed; I just didn't see it. Sorry.
August 23rd, 2011 at 8:10 pm
Anonymous, I'm glad you noticed Pujols missing. After double-checking, I realize that I missed all the exactly-30-game hitting streaks. So I also missed Nomar Garciaparra and Ryan Zimmerman.
I've corrected the post.
August 23rd, 2011 at 9:02 pm
Just one more division bites the dust. The AL Central is usually good for a little bit of late-season excitement.
I bemoan the lack of good races this year. No drama in the AL East because the wild card is locked up and the division winner doesn't matter. Only the NL West has a race.
One out of six divisions up for grabs, realistically, and neither league's wild card still on the table.
You can argue all you want about the "purity" of the 162-game schedule, but this will be one of the most boring Septembers in recent baseball history!
Thank goodness for post-season reform, whether next year or 2014.
August 24th, 2011 at 12:01 am
Brewers should give a huge gift to Jerry Meals for eliminating the Pirates.
August 24th, 2011 at 3:03 am
@45 I find myself agreeing with Neil, this is a lackluster late season. We may still have a team fall apart though, maybe? Arizona? or SF?
August 24th, 2011 at 10:30 am
Let's look at this year's playoff races and how they would have been affected by the addition of a 2nd wild card and a play-in round among the wild cards:
American League
What we have now, with 1 wild card:
-- AL East: 2 teams tied, but potentially great race made meaningless because the loser is virtually assured of the wild card (7.5 games up).
-- AL Central: 6-game lead over #2 and 6.5 over #3, both at or below .500.
-- AL West: 3.5-game lead over #2
-- Wild Card: East #2 is 7.5 games up on West #2 and 8.5 over East #3.
What we would have with 2 wild cards:
-- AL East: Division race gains meaning, as winner avoids the play-in round.
-- AL Central: Unaffected.
-- AL West: Unaffected.
-- Wild Card: East #2 is slightly more certain of a berth (8.5 games up instead of 7.5). 2nd WC berth is a close race, with West #2 a game up on East #3. 2nd WC somewhat dilutes the West race, as West #2 (3.5 GB #1) has WC in hand.
Net effect of 2nd Wild Card:
-- 1 more team has realistic chance at playoffs.
-- AL East race is much more relevant.
-- AL West race is slightly less relevant.
-- 1 Wild Card slightly more certain of a berth.
Thoughts?
(National League breakdown to come....)
August 24th, 2011 at 10:44 am
Continuing (from #48) a comparison of this year's playoff races and how they would have been affected by the addition of a 2nd wild card and a play-in round among the wild cards:
National League
What we have now, with 1 wild card:
-- NL East: #1 is 6.5 games up on #2, who is 9.5 games up in the wild card. Both are virtually locked into their playoff slots.
-- NL Central: Division is sewed up. No teams in WC contention (#2 is 10.5 GB in WC chase).
-- NL West: 1 game separates #1 and #2. No real chance at WC for #2 (9.5 GB).
What we would have with 2 wild cards:
-- NL East: Unaffected.
-- NL Central: #2 would be in the race for the 2nd WC, 1 game behind West #2.
-- NL West: #2 would lead the race for the 2nd WC by 1 game, somewhat diluting the urgency of the division race.
-- Wild Cards: East #2 a virtual lock. Contenders for 2nd WC: West #2 leads by 1 game over Central #2, by 4.5 over Central #3, by 5 over East #3, by 6.5 over West #3.
Net effect of 2nd Wild Card:
-- 1 more team has strong chance at playoffs.
-- 3 sub-.500 teams have longshot at 2nd WC.
-- NL West race is somewhat less relevant, as loser could grab 2nd WC.
(Conclusion to come....)
August 24th, 2011 at 10:51 am
Conclusion (from #48-49) -- comparing this year's playoff races as they are in the present format, to the same under a hypothetical 2-wild-card format:
Assuming everything else would have gone the same, would you rather have had the 2-wild-card format in effect this year?
For me, the answer is no.
The increased relevance of the AL East division race, and the inclusion of another pretty good team from the AL (both prospects currently 11 games over .500), is more than offset by (a) the slight decline in relevance of both West division races, and especially (b) the inclusion of 3 sub-.500 NL teams in the race for the 2nd WC, only one of whom has a positive run differential.
August 24th, 2011 at 1:23 pm
@JA - the radical proposal I've heard in a hockey context is to simply do away with conferences... the baseball equivalent, even more stark, would be to end the separate leagues. You'd have five divisions of six teams each. Division winners would make the playoffs along with three wild-cards, MLB-wide. (If that means they all come from the same division, so be it.) If you then went with ten playoff teams (five wildcards) then the bottom four would have to play in. Seeding would be by record, with home-field advantage to the top four division winners, in the first round. (So you could be a lower seed but still have home-field in the first round, as a reward for winning your division.)
I've sketched several scenarios based on the NHL equivalent, which features 16 teams in four full rounds. With half that many teams in the MLB scenario, it becomes much more likely that two division winners will seed against each other in the first round, making home-field conflicts a constant chore to handle. That's a real problem.
You could always shuffle them into the top four seeds automatically for the first round, and then re-seed for the next round based solely on record, but that also leads to problems. For one thing, it's almost certain that the two weakest division winners get hosed. The weakest might well be the worst team by record (think NL Central, 2006) and be stuck playing a juggernaut - and, well, que cera cera in that case, but if the best wild card is the second-best team in baseball? The fourth seed is stuck with them.
The big advantage in that set-up, to me, is that even after clinching, the division winners have a big incentive to try to nose ahead of each other for guaranteed homefield, especially clubs trying to avoid the scenario above. I also think the races would generally be closer, and there'd usually be a division where the runner-up wouldn't qualify for the playoffs, and has to chase down the leader.
I suppose nothing will answer every concern about fairness and competitiveness, but it's fun to consider.
August 24th, 2011 at 2:17 pm
@51, Nightfly -- My initial reaction is that I can't conceive of the World Series without two distinct leagues.
That's not necessarily my final reaction. But you do have to realize just how radical an idea that is.