Rare “disaster start” for CC
Posted by John Autin on August 6, 2011
-- Saturday in Boston, CC Sabathia was touched for 7 ER on 9 hits in 6 IP in Boston's 10-4 win. It was his first "disaster start" (more ER than IP) since Sept. 23 of last year, a span of 25 starts. (And that previous game snapped a stretch of 32 disaster-free starts.)
CC has lost all 4 games against the BoSox this year, with no quality starts and a 7.20 ERA. Against all other teams this year, he's 16-2 with a 2.11 ERA. He was 4-1 in 8 starts vs. Boston over the previous 2 seasons. He's 6-9 career against them, 2-4 in Fenway.
The biggest blow Saturday was a 3-run HR by Jacoby Ellsbury. Against lefties this year, Sabathia had allowed just 1 HR (by Adrian Gonzalez) and a .183 BA, but today Ellsbury and Carl Crawford (3-2-3-1 with a double vs. CC) led the attack. Ellsbury later added a 2-run single as the Sox salted the game away in the 8th, giving him 6 RBI for the day and 72 for the year.
Several media voices had practically assumed a win today, with Sabathia opposing the struggling and mercurial John Lackey. It just goes to show ya....
Other notes from early games:
-- Cole Hamels was 1 out away from the shutout that has eluded him for the last 2 seasons, but Pablo Sandoval homered to spoil it. Hamels retired Orlando Cabrera to close out the CG, 2-1 win, Philly's 9th straight. The Giants have lost 8 of 9 and are again tied for 1st, pending Arizona's game. (And by the way ... exactly why is Orlando Cabrera batting 5th?)
-- Break up da Cubs! Carlos Zambrano & Co. hammered Cincy for their 7th straight win, leaving them just 17 games below .500.
- Big Z joined Zach Duke as the only pitchers with 2 HRs this year, and extended his HR lead among active pitchers to 23-10 over Livan Hernandez.
- Johnny Cueto had his worst game of the year, allowing 5 ER (the first time he's allowed more than 3 ER all year) in just 3.2 IP, and his ERA rose from 1.72 to 2.05.
- Alfonso Soriano walked twice, ending his streak of 23 straight games and 81 PAs without a base on balls. He has 18 walks in 353 PAs. The longest walk-free streak of the year (counting whole games only) was 115 PAs over 30 games by Aaron Miles; he has drawn just 9 walks in 315 PAs this year.
P.S. There's a famous story, probably apocryphal, about a pre-Yankees Joe DiMaggio facing Satchel Paige in an exhibition game. As the story goes, the Yankee scout wired home from the coast, "DiMaggio all we hoped for. Hit Satch 1 for 4."
That story came to mind just now when I noticed that young Johnny Giavotella, in his 2nd big-league game, got KC's first hit of the night off Justin Verlander, a clean single to CF. I think the kid might make it.
August 6th, 2011 at 8:10 pm
Sabathia hasn't pitched well against teams above .500 this year, no Cy Young for him. Not surprising he got rocked by the Red Sox.
August 6th, 2011 at 8:35 pm
@1
Steven, Sabathia doesn't get to choose who he starts against. He will start against as many good teams as bad ones over the course of a season, taking the mound every fifth day. Today's start was an aberrration, a bad outing, to which every pitcher is entitled.
My only concern is that, with the CYA being so close between Verlander, Weaver, Sabathia, and possibly Dan Haren, that today's start may cost CC the award. It is difficult to lower your ERA back down when you are already so good.
August 6th, 2011 at 9:09 pm
Zambrano went deep again!We need a post on best hitting pitchers.
August 6th, 2011 at 9:20 pm
@3 -- Yeah, but Zambrano isn't quite as good a hitter as his HR total might suggest. Since he never walks, his OBP is just .251, and his OPS+ is 63; that's 41st all-time among pitchers with at least 500 PAs. Good, not great.
August 6th, 2011 at 9:28 pm
JA, I apologize for this, but, for the love of Gosh, can someone please explain to me how the San Diego Padres, of all teams, are beating up on the Pirates' pitchers like this, as at the time my post?
See my (I thought it was a passionate) post in the last blog.
Why have the Pirates' pitchers fallen off the ledge? Are the Padres the 1927 Yankees?
Ahhhh, I love this game (sorry David Stern), I think??
And how do the Cubs put together a winning streak like this when it doesn't matter?
August 6th, 2011 at 9:38 pm
Neil, I hadn't looked at it close myself. But I know a lot of people were expecting Pittsburgh's pitching to fall off because their BABIP seemed unnaturally low. To my chagrin, I see Jeff Karstens is still performing well (though he was crushed yesterday).
Whoa, I didn't realize they were now 3 games under .500. That's a shame. Before the season I figured their hopes for future success rested on Andrew McCutcheon and Pedro Alvarez. Cutch has done his job; maybe Alvarez can start doing something now to keep the team competitive.
August 6th, 2011 at 9:38 pm
JA
You read my mind. I ran a highest OPS+ (minimum 75 PAs) check on the PI Finder.
At 122 OPS+ and 0 BBs, Big Z was the highest on the very short list.
August 6th, 2011 at 10:09 pm
@4 I looked at players who pitched in at least 90% of their total career games starting in 1871. Zambrano is #19 in OPS+. He is 2nd behind Mike Hampton on the list if you look at players who played after 1935. If you use 80% of career games as a pitcher, he's #5 after 1935.
Don Larsen
Earl Wilson
Jack Hershman
Mike Hampton
Carlos Zambrano
August 6th, 2011 at 10:13 pm
@6
JT, you and others told me, before the all-star break, that "pitching to contact", as I said about the Pirates' staff back then, before the all-star break, was another word for, ..... well, high ERA. And now its coming true.
Why can't some team cheat "regression to the mean" and exceed their Pythagorean percentage by 10 games, surpass their talent level, and make us all believers in the "Field of Dreams" concept. 🙂
(Not totally serious, but just a little.)
August 6th, 2011 at 10:19 pm
On top of the BABIP, they had only scored 7 more runs than their opponents when they were 5 games over .500 (54-49).
Occasionally teams do cheat those things over a full season (no examples off the top of my head). Pittsburgh still could.
August 6th, 2011 at 10:42 pm
@8, Charles -- On your first point, I think your selection of 90% of games as pitcher is faulty. It unintentionally filters out the guys who were never regulars at a fielding position, but were good enough hitters that they did a lot of pinch-hitting -- e.g., Wes Ferrell, George Mullin, Jesse Tannehill, Schoolboy Rowe....
Your second point is more interesting, drawing a line in the '30s.
August 6th, 2011 at 11:11 pm
Yeah. I cut it down even further to 50% and a few more popped up after 1935 above Zambrano (He's now #14). He's #2 behind Hampton for pitchers from 1973 to 2011 with 500 PA (101 pitchers).
August 6th, 2011 at 11:33 pm
Dontrelle Willis was a wicked hitter one year(before he fell off a cliff).Be cool if "Big Z" could homer from both sides of the plate in a game.Doc Gooden was a decent hitter.Sid Fernandez was actually darn good.David Cone was okay but the Mets wouldn't let him hit lefty.
August 6th, 2011 at 11:35 pm
@2
Sabathia's great season has been built on three good to pretty good months and an AMAZING July, a July where batters coincidentally had a .214 BABIP. Unlike Verlander, who has also benefitted from a low BABIP, Sabathia only got that number so low for a few weeks while the Tiger has had it all year. Just food for thought.
But it is indisputable that CC has benefited greatly from punching up on .500 teams, his ERA is over 3.
He's still a good pitcher in those games, but he doesn't measure up to elite status, especially when measured up against a guy like Verlander, who has been like a right-handed Koufax against bad teams and a tall Pedro against good ones.
August 6th, 2011 at 11:39 pm
Accidentally deleted part of my own post. Second graf should read:
But it is indisputable that CC has benefited greatly from punching up on .500 teams. In the latter kinds of games, his ERA is over 3 and his WHIP is over 1.2.
August 6th, 2011 at 11:40 pm
Good heavens, I think the site is just rejecting my attempted use of less than and equal. D'oh.
August 6th, 2011 at 11:53 pm
@1 @14-16
Zachary, trying to understand your point. You agree with Steven that CC Sabathia has fattened his ERA against weaker-offense teams?
August 7th, 2011 at 1:10 am
Yes, I do. My posts got goofy. Sabathia has an ERA over 3 against .500+ teams and an ERA below 2 against the sub-.500 teams. His WHIP, my personal go-to pitching stat, shows a similar difference.
August 7th, 2011 at 1:27 am
Most pitchers fatten their stats against the weaker teams; I wouldn't hold CC's splits against him.
However, it's worth noting that Verlander has been significantly better against .500+ teams, with a 1.92 ERA and 0.806 WHIP in 11 starts, compared to 2.51 and 0.921 in 13 starts against sub-.500 teams (before tonight's win against KC).
But ... the .500+ / sub-.500 grouping is not scientific. CC has made 4 starts against Boston, the best record in the league, and 3 against Texas; Verlander has faced Boston twice and Texas once. That's not a scientific breakdown, either, but I'm just trying to show that not all starts against .500+ teams are equally challenging.
August 7th, 2011 at 1:30 am
All of us Giants fans are wondering why Cabrera is batting fifth, too. It makes about as much sense as Aaron Rowand hitting leadoff.
August 7th, 2011 at 3:05 am
Why can't some team cheat "regression to the mean" and exceed their Pythagorean percentage by 10 games, surpass their talent level, and make us all believers in the "Field of Dreams" concept?
You mean like the NL pennant winner of 50 years ago?
August 7th, 2011 at 10:16 am
CC also got rocked by the Red Sox in the 2007 playoffs. Two starts, 10.45 ERA!
August 7th, 2011 at 3:23 pm
@21
Kahuna, nice! Thank you.
Unfortunately, they couldn't get past the Yankees for the World Series win, but I'll have to look more closely at the 1961 Reds to detect the smoke and mirrors.
August 7th, 2011 at 11:43 pm
Well, C C Sabathia has been a dominant pitcher the last few years, but there will be years where maybe you don't pitch all that well. Whether it's your stuff, command, and or it's location.
When you get in this bad games pitched streak, you give it your best shot every time out and hope to break the bad games streak.
August 8th, 2011 at 11:14 am
@21/23 -- The '70 Reds surpassed their Pythag by 11 games.
August 8th, 2011 at 6:02 pm
The '70 Reds surpassed their Pythag by 11 games.
I know, but the '61 Reds a) matched Neil's +10 Pythag overage perfectly, and b) won a close pennant race entirely on the strength of that +10 overage. I figured that team's "surpass[ing] their talent level" came closer to what Neil was wishing for in #9. The 1970 Reds beat their Pythagorean record by a bit more, but they also won their division by 14½ games. They weren't underdogs, and they didn't sneak up on anyone.
August 8th, 2011 at 8:59 pm
Kahuna -- If I'd known the significance of eight-eight, I wouldn't have tried to one-up you! 🙂
I see the wisdom of your considered choice now.
Of course, either way, we get the always-underrated Frank Robinson in the Series.
August 10th, 2011 at 3:18 pm
I remember that season. The Reds were 58-23 in the first half and 44-37 the rest of the way thanks to a 9-3 September/October. They had 4 ten game winners after 82 games but sore arms by their starting pitchers did them in. All 4 starters had their career high in wins that year with Merritt pulling in 20. Cincinatti's starters were 20-18 in the last two months. Baltimore's starters were 31-10 The Reds had 123 HR's in the first 88 games and 68 over the last 74.
August 14th, 2011 at 5:35 pm
Unijny znak towarowy...
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