“Can’t touch dis”: Aroldis Chapman
Posted by John Autin on August 5, 2011
Given his performance over the last 6 weeks, it may be hard to remember that Aroldis Chapman was a floundering phenom back in May. He went on the DL after a May 15 meltdown (23 pitches, 18 balls) that capped a grisly 4-game stretch in which he walked 12 out of 19 batters faced. To that point in the season, he had a 6.92 ERA in 13 IP, with 20 walks, 6 hits and 15 strikeouts. The diagnosis, in layman's terms: strike-zone amnesia.
In his first game back, Chapman struck out the side on 12 pitches, and he's hardly faltered since. In 18.1 IP since returning, he's allowed just 3 hits and 5 walks, with 32 strikeouts. In his last 8 games alone, he has allowed 1 walk and no hits in 9.2 IP.
It's funny, though: If you had witnessed his extended minor-league rehab, you'd have had a hard time knowing that Chapman was rounding into form. In 9 appearances, he had an 8.31 ERA in 13 IP, with 8 walks and 4 wild pitches.
Anyway ... for the season, Chapman has yielded just 9 hits in 31.1 IP, a comical rate of 2.59 hits per 9 IP, and a .093 batting average (9 for 97). Both marks would be the best ever for 30+ IP at the modern pitching distance. (The current "records" are 3.41 H/9 and a .111 BA, both by Mike Adams in 2009.)
Lefties are 2 for 31 against Chapman, with 17 strikeouts. Righties haven't done much better: 7 for 66, with 30 Ks.
Chapman has not allowed more than 1 hit in any of his 33 games. Of the 201 other pitchers with at least 20 appearances this year, only 2 besides Chapman can say that, and they're both LOOGIES who average less than 0.6 IP per game (Randy Choate and Sergio Escalona).
With 47 strikeouts against 9 hits, Chapman is threatening Eric Gagne's 2003 season record SO/H ratio of 3.70; Chapman's SO/H ratio is 5.22 (albeit in less than half as many innings).
On the dark side ... Chapman's season ratio of 25 walks to 9 hits is also unprecedented. No pitcher with 30+ IP has ever allowed twice as many walks as hits. Only 4 have even had a 1.5 BB/H ratio, and 3 of those 4 were quite ineffective, because their BB rates were more hideous than their Hit rates were good. The only effective season with 1.5 times as many walks as hits was by Carlos Marmol in 2009; in 74 IP, Marmol allowed 65 walks but just 43 hits, and it all amounted to a 131 ERA+.
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Short-relief-cynics, please note: I am with you, generally. I've said nothing about the value of Chapman's performance, nor whether the Reds are using their prized arm in the most cost-effective way. Wins Above Replacement shows him with very little impact; his 0.3 WAR is just above the median for pitchers with between 25 and 35 IP; outside the top 100 for all relievers; and outside the top 250 for all pitchers.
On the other hand, his Win Probability Added (1.305) ranks 2nd among the 48 relievers in that 25- to 35-IP cohort; 29th among all relievers; and 55th among all pitchers, ahead of more than a few big-name starters (e.g., Jon Lester, Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum).
I don't know what all that adds up to. But I do know that it's been awfully hard to get a hit off Aroldis Chapman this year.
August 5th, 2011 at 8:06 pm
I expect one day he'll be the best closer in the game. Although I'd rather see him become the next Randy Johnson type pitcher, but perhaps with even wickeder stuff.
August 6th, 2011 at 1:45 am
So, right now, on balance, is Aroldis somebody you want on the mound setting up the closer in a close game or not?
He's so young that the Reds are not going to give up on him anytime soon.
Just saw the highlight, where Aroldis Chapman threw a wild pitch through the backstop screen at Wrigley tonight. Literally a gaping hole in the screen! Shades of Bull Durham.
August 6th, 2011 at 2:35 am
Wouldn't you know it? I finally post the Chapman piece after sitting on it for a couple days, and he goes out and allows 2 hits -- which he hadn't done all year.
Serves me right for reacting to a small sample, I guess.
I would like to see that video, though.
August 6th, 2011 at 3:50 am
That's actually how Kenley Jansen has been for the Dodgers this year:
Jansen over first 8 games: 8.2 IP, 11 ER, 13 H.
Last 14 games: 16 IP, 3 H, 7 BB, 0 ER, 26 K.
Jansen actually has a better K rate than Chapman over more innings. (14.8 K/9 over 37 IP.)
August 6th, 2011 at 4:03 am
Any truth to the rumor that Adam Dunn agreed to DH in the American League so that he wouldn't have to face Aroldis Chapman?
August 6th, 2011 at 12:48 pm
Dave robertson is better than arnoldis chapman take that to the bank
August 6th, 2011 at 12:57 pm
@6, Liam -- You may be right about Robertson better than Chapman. But on the other hand, Robertson has 3 prior seasons that weren't anywhere near this effective; in fact, all in all, they were quite ordinary for a reliever. And he's only got 44 IP this year. So I'd say the sample-size jury is still out on both pitchers.
August 6th, 2011 at 3:09 pm
Never mind the short-relief cynics John. The fact is that the Reds and Chapman have successfully rehabbed this guy into a consistent and effective reliever (we all remember Rick Ankiel). A huge task completed in a short period of time. This gives Baker more choices in crucial game situations.
August 6th, 2011 at 3:13 pm
Robertson is a future closer though. I've been saying for a couple years now that Joba is not Mo's heir--Robertson seems to be that guy. Being able to have a K/9 rate at a truly elite level for a second time in his short career tells me that he can go out there and miss bats for a long time. His only real weakness so far in his career is his walk rate and this year he's shown the ability (or luck) to buckle down and not give a free pass when it's critical to get the K or get the ball put into play.
All the kid needs to be able to do is learn to bring the walk rate down a smidge, even if it hurts his K/9 a little, and he should be able to be a reliable and consistent closer. Even if you think what he's doing now isn't quite as psychologically difficult as possibly being the guy that replaces Mo, taking over 8th inning duties for the Yankees is kinda like closing for most other teams...
August 6th, 2011 at 3:41 pm
@8
Kenh, is it accurate to call Chapman a "huge task completed" right now or still a work in progress? Doesn't the wildness still give a cause for concern in the crucial situations you mention?
August 6th, 2011 at 8:32 pm
@9
While I can't argue against Robertson being a great reliever, he's a lot closer to Marmol than he is to Rivera. He certainly has elite K numbers. However, he's posting the worst BB rate of his career so far. In fact, his BB rate has gone UP every year, and it's half a walk worse than it was last year. He also hasn't allowed a home run all year, which means he's also been lucky. He's a great reliever, but he's probably better suited as a situational, match-up middle reliever than a closer.
August 6th, 2011 at 8:55 pm
I've been a Robertson supporter for a couple years and I'm glad to see him having that breakout season. I don't think calling him a "match-up middle reliever" is fair; he's the Yanks' 8th inning guy now and has handled lefties well throughout his career. Is he a future closer? I have no idea; as a Yankee fan, when's the last time I saw a closer-in-training? All the walks do worry me a bit.
Is there a reason for his improvement? He's always had the hammer curveball. It seems to me his fastball velocity has increased a bit (I have not confirmed this with the Pitch FX readings). He's developed a cut fastball too in the last couple seasons.
Of late, he's also started throwing an occasional change, though I wouldn't call it a major weapon yet.
August 7th, 2011 at 10:20 am
@9 Neil
Yes, I got ahead of myself. Lets call it a significant turnaround in a short period of time.
August 8th, 2011 at 5:12 am
Chapman does throw very hard and is obviously hard to hit. I wonder if he has the stamina (or can develop the stamina) to be a starter and go 6 or 7 innings. (BTW, I really like what Dontrelle Willis is doing. I've been a fan of his since he played for the Marlins.)
August 14th, 2011 at 4:12 am
Wildlife Removal...
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