71 Responses to ““What are the odds?” … of 3 straight no-hitters?”

1. fredsbank Says:
   June 13th, 2011 at 12:22 am

   Cy Young recorded 25.1 consecutive hitless innings in 1904, including his perfect game... game logs arent available that far back, but he completed 40 of his 41 starts that year, so assuming that the game before wasnt extra innings and he finished it, lets say he threw 8 no-hit innings before the perfect game, 9 perfect, then started the next game and threw 8.1 more no-hit innings. Switch the .1 to either game if you want, but that is damned impressive, and probably as close as anyone will ever come to 3 straight no-hitters.

2. blahblahblah Says:
   June 13th, 2011 at 12:24 am

   At first, I wanted to say that of course beating Dimaggio's hitting streak must be harder than 3 straight no-hitters, but actually, I'm not entirely sure. You need a hell of a lot of luck for both.

3. Jon Says:
   June 13th, 2011 at 12:29 am

   Not to derail the thread but I've often argued that Fernado Tatis holds the most unbreakable record in baseball. Grand Slams aside, it'd be interesting to know if anyone has even come to bat 3 times in one inning.

4. oneblankspace Says:
   June 13th, 2011 at 12:32 am

   The first game of Teddy Higuera's streak (the 1-0 win in 10 innings) is best remembered as the game that ended Paul Molitor's 39-game hitting streak; Brewers fans may also remember 13-0 to start that season.

5. John Autin Says:
   June 13th, 2011 at 12:40 am

   @3, Jon -- Johnny Damon had 3 hits in one inning:
   http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS200306270.shtml

   According to this site, 3 hits in an inning was done one other time in the modern era, and 3 times in the 1880s:
   http://www.baseballtoddsdugout.com/genestephens.html

   It stands to reason that many others have had 3 AB in an inning.

6. Jon Says:
   June 13th, 2011 at 12:51 am

   The record I alluded to was hitting three grand slams in one inning. Tatis hit two, which I contend will never be broken. Thanks for the info on the 3 ABs and hits in one inning.

7. Ruben Says:
   June 13th, 2011 at 12:55 am

   Jon: 3 ABs in one inning isn't that rare. Of the top of my head, I remember a game between the Red Sox and Florida where Johnny Damon had 3 hits in the 1st inning. Here's a link to the play-by-play

   Back to the no-hitter question. Using straight math statistics, and ignoring the real life components of human emotion, fatigue, pressure, and managers not wanting to kill a pitcher's arm, we can answer this question somewhat simply:
   There are about 2 to 3 no-hitters a year (there were 20 from 2001-2010. 74, from 1970 to 2000 - I didn't go further back). There are 2430 games played a year. So, i'm going to round off and say that one of every 1,000 games results in a no-hitter. So any given time a pitcher takes the mound, he has a 1 in 2,000 chance of throwing a no-hitter (since there are 2 starters each game). The chances of throwing 3 in a row is 2,000 x 2,000 x 2,000, or 1 in 8 billion (!). 1 key factor I missed in this equation is that some pitcher's are better than others. The chance of a Jon Lester, David Price or Josh Johnson throwing a no-hitter is much higher than say a Kyle Davies.

   If we a ssume that only #1 starters are able to throw no-hitters (I know it's a poor assumption, as the no hitters list is full of one time wonders, but let's go with it) the chances are 1 in 400 instead of 1 in 2,000. 3 in a row are 1 in 400 x 400 x 400, or 1 in 64 Million. Much better than 1 in 8 billion, but I still don't think I'll see this in my lifetime.

   By the way, by this logic, a Johnny Vandermeer should happen once every 400x400 or 160,000 games. This sounds about right, as it's probably close to the number of games that have been played in the MLB since 1900. With 30 teams at 162 games, we'll play that many games in about 65 years, so expect to see this happen again in 30ish years.

8. Ruben Says:
   June 13th, 2011 at 12:58 am

   @5 - John, thanks for the info. I remember Damon's game well, and since I saw it when it happened I just assumed it was a somewhat frequent occurrence. If it only happened twice I retract my statement that it isn't that rare. It obviously is!

9. John Autin Says:
   June 13th, 2011 at 1:06 am

   @4, Oneblankspace -- Nice hook-in with Molitor's streak. The interconnectedness of baseball ... we love it!

   Checking Molly's '87 game log ... I'd never realized that the hitting streak started right after a stint on the D.L., his 2nd of the year. He had missed about half the team's games in the first half of the season.

10. Richard Chester Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 1:09 am

    @3
    From 1901 through 2006 17 players have come to the plate 3 times in an inning. On June 18, 1953 5 players on the Red Sox had 3 AB in the 7th inning when they scored 17 runs

11. Anthony Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 1:14 am

    On the three grand slams bit- not only do you need 3 AB, you have to be up at earliest fourth in the inning, meaning there must be at a minimum 23 batters who come to the plate in the inning. Do a search for 23-PA innings, I'm sure it's rarer.

12. topper009 Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 1:18 am

    Dave Stieb threw 2 straight CG 1-hitter SOs to end 1988, and the game before that he threw a CG 4-hit SO. Then the 2nd game of 1989 he threw another CG 1-hit SO.

    So thats 3 CG 1-hit SO out of 4 straight starts (although there was an entire offseason halfway through the streak).

    So if Dave Stieb threw 2 different pitches on those last 2 hits he gave up in 1988 he may have joined Johnny Vander Meer.

13. Doug Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 1:42 am

    JA,

    Interesting that I've heard the Babe Ruth/Ernie Shore story forever, but hadn't before heard about Woody Fryman doing essentially the same thing - recording 26 outs in a row to close out a game after the 1st out is recorded on the bases.

    Thanks for that tidbit.

14. Mark Siegel Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 3:02 am

    The odds against three straight no-hitters must be even greater now than they were in Vander Meer's time for the simple reason that starting pitchers are not built or trained to go 9 innings any more.

    A starting pitcher's goal is to get into the 7th inning with the lead and then hand the ball off to his bullpen.

    Someone will throw three consecutive no-hitters probably at about the same time that someone approaches Walter Johnson's career record of 531 complete games.

15. Jimbo Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 4:44 am

    @2

    I don't even think Dimaggio's 56 game hitting streak is all that unbreakable.

    In fact, I would be very, very surprised if it doesn't get broken in my lifetime.

    I'm actually surprised that Ichiro didn't break it. I had thought it was just a matter of time with his hitting style.

16. Shazbot Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 5:54 am

    They don't generally pull guys with no-hitters running, so I wouldn't even consider different usage a factor. I maintain that it's a lot more likely than 532 career CGs would be.

17. johnr Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 7:01 am

    I'm surprised that no-one has mentioned that three consecutive no-hitters has been done in the minors,
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Bill_Bell

    By the time the complete game record is challenged again, Walter Johnson's era will be considered just a pre-modern as Cy Young's, http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/youngcy01.shtml
    and the record to beat will be approximately 749 CG.

18. Timmy p Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 7:10 am

    @15 I know 1 record that will stand forever, and that is the career triples mark set by Wahoo Sam Crawford, a native of Wahoo Nebraska.

19. Frank Clingenpeel Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 7:48 am

    You can take this to the bank;

    DiMaggio will be passed someday {I have been saying that for seventy years now; I still believe it.}

    Someone will throw three straight no-hitters, even with the modern relief pitching.

    And to Jimbo #15: since I am just past 80 {dob 12/29/30} and half of my life is probably over, I don't know whether or not this will happen in my lifetime; but mark these words: IT WILL HAPPEN!

20. Jim Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 8:54 am

    @14

    There have already been as many complete game no hitters in the 2010's as there were in all of the 1930's, when Vander Meer was pitching. The number of no hitters has no correlation to the number of complete games thrown.

    Complete game no-hitters by decade, since the start of the 20th century:

    1900's 20
    1910's 28
    1920's 9
    1930's 8
    1940's 13
    1950's 18
    1960's 33
    1970's 29
    1980's 13
    1990's 27
    2000's 14
    2010's 8

21. Nash Bruce Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 9:13 am

    I think that a relief specialist, most likely, a 'closer', throwing 27 consecutive no-hit innings, is far more likely, in this day and age, than 3 consecutive no hitters, from a starter.

22. Kelly Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 9:32 am

    @17 The wiki you provided indicates that Bell's first two no hitters were consecutive (4 days apart in May 1952) but the third was nonconsecutive (several months later in August 1952). Still impressive though.

23. Dvd Avins Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 9:46 am

    Tatis's record is not merely most grand slams in an inning, i't smost grand slams in an inning against the same pitcher. (Or you could go with Chan Ho Park for most grand slams given up in an inning to the same batter.) Those are records that will not be broken this side of a company softball game.

24. DaveKingman Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 9:46 am

    Wasn't one of VanDer Meer's no-hitters the first night game played at Ebbets Field, or some other park?

    I seem to remember reading that fact, and that his effort was helped tremendously because the park still hadn't figured out the best way to light up the joint. The batters couldn't see the ball very well.

25. Tony Pavon Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 9:48 am

    ∞

26. Frank Clingenpeel Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 10:02 am

    DaveKingman;

    Seeing a VanderMeer pitch wasn't easy in broad daylight -- which made his wildness something to instill something close to a religious experience to those who escaped an at bat with him unmarked -- so I wouldn't doubt that poor lighting might have some effect on a batter facing him.

27. Richard Chester Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 10:25 am

    @11

    The Red Sox sent 23 men to the plate in the game I cited in post #10. That is the only instance of 23 AB in an inning between 1901 and 2006. On 5/21/52 the Dodgers sent 21 men to the plate.

    @24

    It was at the first night game at Ebbets Field.

28. Mark Siegel Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 10:34 am

    Here's another record that will stand forever: 50 consecutive years of managing the same team - set by Connie Mack.

29. Mark Siegel Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 10:37 am

    "They don't generally pull guys with no-hitters running, so I wouldn't even consider different usage a factor. I maintain that it's a lot more likely than 532 career CGs would be."

    That's not my point. Only in an environment where a pitcher might be EXPECTED to go 9 innings and TRAINED FOR THAT PURPOSE -- as starting pitchers were in Walter Johnson's day -- would a pitcher even be able to develop the STAMINA necessary to pitch three consecutive no-hitters.

30. John Autin Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 10:39 am

    @20, Jim -- "The number of no hitters has no correlation to the number of complete games thrown."

    Isn't it possible that it does correlate with CG, but has a stronger correlation with the league batting average? The 1920s and '30s were a period of historically high BAs.

    The number of teams in the majors also plays a role in the raw count of no-hitters by decade.

31. John Autin Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 10:50 am

    @16, Shazbot: "They don't generally pull guys with no-hitters running...."

    Ah, but they do, nowadays. Here are the numbers of non-CG starts of at least 6 IP with no hits allowed:
    -- 1919-1990, 15 (in 72 years)
    -- 1991-2010, 17 (in 20 years)

    There were two of these just last year, by Rich Harden (111 pitches in 6.2 IP) and Kevin Slowey (106 pitches in 7 IP):
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TEX/TEX201008230.shtml
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIN/MIN201008150.shtml

32. jason Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 11:11 am

    i could have sworn vandermeer's no-nos were in 41, i was going to say how notable it was that he did this 38 thing too, but i guess i have been wrong all this time.

33. jason Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 11:18 am

    i agree with 15, dimaggios streak is not unbreakable. will white or whoever's 686 ip or whatever is can think of that will never be approached. that and some error records from the 1800s. i mean, even radbourn's 59 wins could be done in a future where rotations are abandoned due to a union lawsuit on health insurance, starters go 2 or 3 innings and relievers get all the decisions. suddenly one is awesome, makes 137 1 to 2 inning appearances, gets 60 wins? and he could barely nick the qualifying innings with like a 0.5 era and break another record? or be awful and lose more than 48 games? it could theoretically happen.

34. Daniel Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 11:20 am

    Defining the record as consecutive hitless innings makes it much more achievable (though still remarkable). If you wanted to be strict about it, I'm highly confident that Tatis' record is VASTLY harder to achieve, not even close. As has been pointed out, just getting up to bat 3 times in one inning is remarkably rare, as common as Haley's comet sightings, literally. But if you said Grand slams in consecutive at bats, 3 would still be remarkably unlikely, but not Haley's comet unlikely. If that makes sense.

    I lack the math ability to try and estimate the odds of three consecutive no hitters, but I imagine its astronomical-- something that would be expected to happen once every 1,500 full baseball seasons or somesuch.

35. Jimbo Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 11:23 am

    @29

    I think both Roy Halladay and CC Sabathia have thrown 3 straight CG's. If they had no hitters going, they certainly could and would.

    Of course they won't, but I could realistically see Halladay throwing 3 straight shutouts.

36. Spartan Bill Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 11:47 am

    @ 11
    -+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
    Actually, (unless the 3rd grand slam was a walk-off) it would require a minimum of 24 batters that inning, as the 3rd grand Slam would be on the (minimum) 23rd PA, and the ining would continue after that point.

    That would also mean the inning generated at least 21 runs.

    The MLB record for runs in an inning is 17 by the 53 Red Sox. As they left the bases loaded, this is also the record for most PA (23)

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS195306180.shtml

37. oneblankspace Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 12:00 pm

    Tatis also had 8 RBI that inning, which is a record.

38. John Autin Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 12:02 pm

    @34, Daniel: "just getting up to bat 3 times in one inning is remarkably rare, as common as Haley's comet sightings, literally."

    Daniel, I may not be following your method, but are you perhaps mixing up 3 at-bats in an inning and 3 hits in an inning?

    According to Richard Chester @3, "From 1901 through 2006, 17 players have come to the plate 3 times in an inning." I don't see how that would be equivalent to Haley's comet.

39. Lawrence Azrin Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 12:04 pm

    @28/ Mark Siegel Says: "Here's another record that will stand forever: 50 consecutive years of managing the same team - set by Connie Mack."

    Since the main reason Mack managed the A's 50 years was that he OWNED the team, and MLB rules now prohibit an owner from managing his team (in response to Ted Turner's attempt in the late 70s), I think there's a pretty good chance of this.

    I agree with #14 and #17; whomever you consider the "true" holder of the CG career record (I'll stick with Young) - complete games have been declining over so many decades, to such a low number, unless MLB is fundamentally redefined, no one will have more than a small fraction of the career record. Roy Halladay, considered a real workhorse, leads active pitchers with 62 CG's.

40. Daniel Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 12:06 pm

    @ 38: Oops. You're quite right. I was referring to 3 hits.

    But I was getting at the mere potential opportunity, which is 3 at bats (with the bases loaded). That really is the proper question-- how many times has anyone ever come up with the bases loaded even twice in one inning. (I assume that the number that have appeared 3 times with the bases loaded is zero). If its only a twice a decade thing to even have 3 PAs in one inning I was right that the opp to hit 3 grannies in an inning is Haley's comet territory. However, I focused on the wrong metric of opportunity, and gave out bad information to boot. Good correction.

41. Jim Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 12:11 pm

    @30, John

    That's possible, and I hadn't considered it. Still, consider the difference between the 1980's and 2000's. Batting average was higher in the 00's, complete games were much lower, and there was one more no hitter in the '00's. Do the extra 3000 or so games that having four additional teams make up for the huge drop in complete games in that same time? That's probably a better question for someone who is better at statistics than I am.

    So I'll concede that I was too quick to make a definitive statement that no correlation exists. However, my original point, meant to dispute the assertion that pitchers today are less likely to pitch a no-hitter today because they're less conditioned to pitch complete games still stands.

    Also, while you're correct about pitchers being removed in games where they haven't allowed hits being something that isn't so rare, it seems likely that pitchers are removed at a higher rate when they've allowed 1 hit than when they've allowed 0, when in 1965 or 1988 he would have been allowed to finished, raising the no-hitter/CG ratio. For example, last September, C.C. Sabathia was removed after the 8th inning during a 1-hitter on only 95 pitches in a 5-0 game against Oakland. It's impossible to imagine him being taken out of that game if he hadn't allowed that one hit. Of course, such examples are anecdotal, and therefore of only minimal value without some analysis, but it does *seem* to be closer to the norm now. Before 1992ish, he would have finished that game.

42. John Autin Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 12:20 pm

    @36, Spartan Bill -- I don't follow the logic behind saying that 3 grand slams by one batter in one inning would require a minimum of 24 batters in the inning.

    The first grand slam could come as the 4th batter of the inning, the second slam as the 13th batter, and the third slam as the 22nd batter, after which #23 makes the last out. So I think that Anthony @11 was correct.

    Am I missing something?

43. johnr Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 12:22 pm

    @22 Kelly,
    oops. faux pas. Thanks for the correction. So now I'll just say that if it hasn't been done in the minors, then it's very rare - most season/game/streak/inning records are larger in the minors (exception single season HR)

44. Mark Siegel Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 12:23 pm

    I doubt very much that either Halladay or Sabathia ever threw three consecutive shutouts of 9 innings apiece. A complete game might go less than 9 innings if it happens in a losing cause.

    Put it this way: among his 500+ complete games, most of which happened in the "dead ball" era, Walter Johnson threw 2 no-hitters, each of which was four years apart.

    How likely is it that a modern day major league pitcher who will not even remotely approach that number of complete games over the course of a career will throw three consecutive no-hit no-run games?

    And I also disagree that DiMaggio's record is likely to be broken. Relief pitching is more of a specialty now than it was in 1941, and hitters today face more of a variety of pitchers who probably throw harder than did the pitchers in DiMaggio's day.

    And the intentional walk has become a more potent weapon in their hands, as well, as Barry Bonds found out in 2001. If a team's big hitter is up with the game on the line and an open base, he's going to get four wide ones, even if it means putting the go-ahead/winning run on base.

    That's contrary to the "old school" code of NEVER putting the winning run on base. This means fewer real opportunities on a daily basis for the player seeking to maintain a consecutive game hitting streak.

45. Chuck Hildebrandt Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 12:37 pm

    I think the only way anyone could have a shot at three no-hitters is to raise the seams on the ball to where they were a few decades ago.

46. Scoop Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 12:59 pm

    As for unbreakable records, how about the single-season/career errors records? Whether you go pre or post 1900, no active player is remotely close to the leader. With the availability of replacement players, I think this record is unbreakable. There are so many records (IP, CG, 3B, etc.) that won't be broken because of how the game has changed.

47. John Autin Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 1:08 pm

    @44, Mark Siegel -- How does Walter Johnson's rate of no-hitters per CG apply to anyone else?

    First ... Within a given game, the evolving odds of a no-hitter affect those of a CG. Allowing no hits over any period of innings increases the chance of a CG. A pitcher who has gone 8 no-hit innings with a reasonable pitch count is far more likely to be left in the game than a pitcher with everything else the same but having allowed a few hits.

    Second ... Why Johnson's ratio, specifically? Why not that of Nolan Ryan (7 no-hitters in 222 CG) or Sandy Koufax (4 in 137 CG) -- or Justin Verlander (2 no-hitters out of 12 CG), or Hideo Nomo (2 in 16 CG)?

48. Jeff Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 1:26 pm

    As far as unbreakable records go, how about these:

    36 triples by Chief Wilson 1912
    .609 OB% by Barry Bonds 2004
    120 IBB by Barry Bonds 2004
    457 Total Bases by Babe Ruth in 1921
    177 Runs Scored by Babe Ruth in 1921(modern day)
    130 SB by Rickey Henderson in 1982
    .863 SLG% by Barry Bonds in 2001
    191 RBI's by Hack Wilson in 1931
    73 HR by Barry Bonds in 2001

    Or any batter hitting .400 again which isn't even a record...

49. wboenig Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 1:35 pm

    Tangentially related to the original topic, Ewell Blackwell followed up his 06-18-47 no-hitter against the Braves with eight innings of no-hit ball four days later against the Dodgers.

50. Spartan Bill Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 1:35 pm

    @42, no John I am the one who is missing something.

    I have given up caffeine this month and it has affected my basic arithmetic skills.
    sorry

51. John Autin Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 1:40 pm

    @50, Spartan Bill --
    Wolverine John says, don't sweat it. 🙂

52. Richard Chester Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 1:49 pm

    @38

    John: I retrieved my info from The SABR Baseball List & Record Book, Article 176 2007 Edition. I usually don't pay attention to pre-1901 records but for those who do there were 10 instances of 3 AB in an inning, 5 on 9/6/1883, 4 on 6/18/1894 and 1 on 6/17/1891.

53. Lawrence Azrin Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 2:44 pm

    @48/ Jeff Says: "As far as unbreakable records go, how about these:
    ...130 SB by Rickey Henderson in 1982..."

    Jeff, if runs/game continues to decline, and the stolen base looks like a better strategic option, a prolific basestealer such as Ellsbury or Michael Born may approach 130 SB; still quite unlikely. Still, since a SB attempt is a result of a deliberate decision (as opposed to, say, trying to hit a triple) it is somewhat more likely see the record threatened.

    In theory, a 56 game hitting streak is possible every year, although in reality it is off-the-charts unlikely. The late anthropologist Stephen Jay Gould once stated that this was the one most statistically unlikely record in MLB history (not sure which records he considered).

54. Mark Siegel Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 3:00 pm

    "Why Johnson's ratio, specifically? Why not that of Nolan Ryan (7 no-hitters in 222 CG) or Sandy Koufax (4 in 137 CG) -- or Justin Verlander (2 no-hitters out of 12 CG), or Hideo Nomo (2 in 16 CG)?"

    Are you really suggesting that Hideo Nomo has one chance in eight of throwing a no-hitter if he throws a complete game? A better chance of converting a complete game to a no-hitter than these other elite pitchers?

    Isn't it more likely that Nomo is a statistical anomaly, much as Vander Meer was?

    Walter Johnson was the best example because he set an unbreakable career record for complete games, but as far as that goes, no modern pitcher is going to come close to equaling the number of CG's thrown by Ryan -- or particularly likely to equal the number thrown by Koufax either.

    In any event, you're the one who's hung up on "ratios of CG to no-hitters". I am looking at CG's to CONSECUTIVE no-hitters. How close did any of those pitchers come to throwing TWO CONSECUTIVE no-hitters, let alone THREE?

    It's not EXTREMELY amazing when a pitcher throws a no-hitter because, over a large sample size, no-hitters happen, even to mediocre pitchers, and a better example for your purpose would be Bobo Holloman - one complete game and one no-hitter.

    But if a pitcher is going to throw multiple no-hitters -- an unlikely enough contingency in itself -- those no-hitters should be DISTRIBUTED RANDOMLY ACROSS TIME -- perhaps, but not necessarily, tending more toward the pitcher's peak years.

    If a roulette wheel is spun honestly 3800 times, we would expect the "00" to come up roughly 100 times and no one should be particularly surprised on any given occasion when it does.

    And if a "00" DOES come up, there is still one chance in 38 that it will come up again on EACH of the next 99 spins -- but BEFORE the fact, the odds against the spin coming up "00" one hundred consecutive times are astronomical, even if the wheel is spun 3800 times.

    So no-hitters should work similarly, even for elite pitchers. And the roulette wheel is an imperfect example because there is no reason to suspect that one honest spin of an roulette wheel will effect the next spin, but there are reasons to believe that if a pitcher throws a no-hitter, there will be intangible forces working against him on his very next start to make it unlikely that he will throw another one on that particular start.

55. Jeff Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 3:05 pm

    @53

    I agree with you but with that said, no one has threatened it since it happened. It's only been 29 years but still. The HR has weakened the SB strategy but as you mentioned before, the downward power numbers and increased SB numbers suggest a drastic incline of thieves on the base paths. I still believe the chances are very low if not nearly impossible. A Ellsbury, Bourn, Reyes, Gardner type could reach as high as 90 or so but I'm just not convinced anyone playing right now can get there. I say this because Henderson was a once in a lifetime player and I don't consider these guys one of those. Plus, Rickey was an on base machine by walk or base hit and they are more hitters than just on base players in my opinion.

56. Lawrence Azrin Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 3:18 pm

    @55/ Jeff - agree with your analysis; it just seemed the most likely of the possibilities on your list in #48. Rickey was a unique talent, as much for the OBA as the SB.

    Although looking at the list again, someone like Bautista could post a fluke .863+ SLG%, particularly if he played about 120 games and just made the 502 PA requirement, and even that is likely only if he went on a hot streak and the AL collectively decided to walk him (intentional or not) in any dangerous situation, like Bonds 2001-2004. Very very unlikely though.

57. Johnny Twisto Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 3:27 pm

    Walter Johnson ... set an unbreakable career record for complete games

    Why do you keep saying this? He doesn't have the record; Cy Young does.

    Regardless, I think an analysis of no-hitters per CG is wrongheaded. It's not that Nomo has a 1-in-8 chance of a no-hitter if he throws a CG, it's that he's rarely going to throw a CG unless he's pitching a no-hitter (or a great game). I'm sure Johnson completed plenty of games in which he fared quite poorly. That doesn't happen anymore.

58. Mark Siegel Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 3:43 pm

    @#57

    Fine, but with all of Cy Young's complete games, although he threw three no-hitters, he didn't throw them CONSECUTIVELY and probably didn't ever come close to throwing two consecutive no-hitters, let alone three.

    "It's not that Nomo has a 1-in-8 chance of a no-hitter if he throws a CG, it's that he's rarely going to throw a CG unless he's pitching a no-hitter (or a great game)."

    THAT observation and the analysis that stems from it beg the original question of how likely it is that a pitcher will throw a no-hitter in the first place, let alone multiple no-hitters, let alone multiple CONSECUTIVE no-hitters.

59. W Hays Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 4:46 pm

    If one wants to be really technical, a record held by many is unbreakable. Three putouts in the same inning. There has been 4 strikouts, but there woulkld be an error, passed ball, wild pitch or some other aberration. The catcher would not have gotten the PO 4 times.

60. Johnny Twisto Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 4:54 pm

    with all of Cy Young's complete games, although he threw three no-hitters, he didn't throw them CONSECUTIVELY and probably didn't ever come close to throwing two consecutive no-hitters, let alone three.

    See post #1.

61. Lawrence Azrin Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 5:04 pm

    @59/ W Hays Says: "...If one wants to be really technical, a record held by many is unbreakable...'

    W Hays, that depends on what you mean by "many" - any time a player hits a HR in his first plate appearance, there is at least the theoretical possibility of him hitting five HR in a game, and that would break a record held by many, if "many" is 15.

    Three putouts in an inning has been done by many players, but it isn't a very significant record. If you mean something like a 1.000 fielding % for a season, I see your point that the record is unbreakable.

62. Jon Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 5:06 pm

    "According to Richard Chester @3, "From 1901 through 2006, 17 players have come to the plate 3 times in an inning." I don't see how that would be equivalent to Haley's comet."

    Do we know how many different games produced those 17 players that have batted 3 times in one inning? It's not necessarily 17 different games. As has been alluded to, to hit three grand slams in one inning means you'd have to be the 4th batter to come to the plate (even the third time through, of course) which means at least 5 (5th to make final out) batters will have had to come to the plate 3 times in one inning. If these 5 players represent somewhere around 25% of the times it has occurred in the history of the game, I'd say it's it's a very rare occurrence.

63. John Autin Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 5:48 pm

    @62, Jon -- True, it's not 17 different games. I think it's 6 games, based on Richard Chester's followup.

    I simply wanted to clear up the comparison to Haley's Comet "sightings," of which there have been 2 since the birth of professional baseball, (i.e., when the comet is close enough to Earth to be visible to the naked eye).

    Am I nitpicking to distinguish between 6 and 2? The writer said the frequency was "literally" the same (emphasis mine), so I thought a correction was in order. Six is not two. In fact, if I remember my Scholastic Rock, six is thrice two.

    In the bigger picture, as far as whether someone might ever hit 3 grand slams in an inning, what does it matter if the necessary circumstances have arisen 6 times previously, 2 times, or never before? It only takes one.

    BTW, if it ever does happen, I hope the inning is the bottom of the 9th, and that it begins with the home team trailing by 20 runs. 🙂

64. Brian Wells Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 6:00 pm

    Certainly Cy Young`s record of 511 wins will remain tops(unless the day comes when androids take the field).What`s remarkable is that according to Young,the only reason he retired was because he had gotten too plump to handle bunts-his arm was fine!Also, Walter Johnson`s record of 110 shutouts should be near impossible to break.

65. Richard Chester Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 6:12 pm

    @63

    After 1901 there were 10 individual games where 1 or more players batted 3 times and 3 individual games prior to 1901.

    9/6/1883--5 players
    6/17/1891-- 1
    6/18/1894-- 4
    8/25/1922-- 1
    7/4/1948-- 1
    5/21/1952-- 3
    6/18/1953-- 5
    8/8/1954-- 1
    9/20/1972-- 1
    8/3/1989-- 2
    8/19/1996-- 1
    7/17/1997-- 1
    6/27/2003-- 1

66. Jeff Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 6:21 pm

    @64 Brian:

    Maybe androids will take the field someday. But they'll probably be accusing of downloading illegal upgrades or something, and be kept out of the Hall of Fame.

    511 wins and 110 shutouts are unbreakable, as the game is played now. But we don't know what will happen in the future. A hundred years from now, the games might only last five innings.

    As of now, though, the active leader in wins is Tim Wakefield, with 196. He's 38.3% of the way to Cy Young's record, but I should point out that he's the only active major leaguer that's older than I am.

    As for shutouts, the active leader is Roy Halladay, with 19. He's 17.2% of the way to Walter Johnson's record of 110. If he keeps pitching them at the same rate until he's about 110 years old, then he might get there.

    I guess 110 really is the number to beat.

67. Phil Haberkorn in Indiana Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 7:15 pm

    I ditto a previous post, where it might happen with the off-season in between two games.
    A guy wraps up the season with two no-no's against teams with mostly September call-up rookies in their batting order, then opens the next season with a no-no against a similar kind of line-up featuring rookies who had a hot Spring Training.

68. Brendan Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 9:17 pm

    About the "four putouts" thing... it can happen. Think "unassisted quadruple play." The fourth putout (of the runner from 3B) would count if it was necessary to prevent a run.

69. Thom-13 Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 10:07 pm

    @23 Chan Ho Park's record is the one I always give when this discussion comes up among friends. I'm surprised that his manager allowed him to face Tatis the second time. I can't imagine a manager even keeping a pitcher who has given up two grand slams in an inning to pitch to another batter, much less the same batter.

70. oneblankspace Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 10:49 pm

    If you're comparing CG to no-hitters, Lirano-no has 1 of each.

71. John Autin Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 11:18 pm

    @70, Oneblankspace -- The same is true of Bobo Holloman, who pitched just one year, made 10 starts for the Browns, and had 1 CG, a no-hitter.
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hollobo01.shtml