36 Responses to “Bryce Harper’s Intro To Pro Ball”

1. Neil L. Says:
   May 15th, 2011 at 5:09 pm

   Barry Bonds, 2001-4, four of the top eight seasons..... yawn! And at ages 36-39. Yeah, right!

   A list like this brings into focus the whole discussion in Andy's blog

   http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/11069

   It's too bad that our sport will be permanently distorted statistically by what happened in our time. Thanks Bud.

   But I digress.

   Steve, agreed that an OBP of 0.468 in an 18-year old is pretty impressive. However, it is single A ball and it is a long road to the majors.

   One hopes he is not hyped as another darling of the Washington Nationals public relations machine a la Stephen Strasburg!

   I know nothing about Bryce Harper, but let him develop his skills without huge scrutiny.

2. Spartan Bill Says:
   May 15th, 2011 at 5:14 pm

   So a guy named Bryce is leading the Sally League in Runs, Hits, 2Bs, and RBIs.

   I am talking about Bryce Brentz of Greenville (Boston). His stats including an 1.142 OPS compare quite nicely top the other Bryce

3. Enkidu Says:
   May 15th, 2011 at 5:24 pm

   Of course, that other Bryce is also 4 years older than Harper

4. DavidRF Says:
   May 15th, 2011 at 5:35 pm

   @2
   Great point. Brentz is four years older, so isn't as good of a prospect, but it goes to show that I don't really know how to put minor leagues stats into historcial perspective.

   A "play index" for the minors would be fun. What are the best seasons for 18-year-olds in the minors?

   Willie Mays hit .477/.524/.799 in 35 games in Minneapolis in 1951 but he was 20 that year.

5. BSK Says:
   May 15th, 2011 at 5:38 pm

   O/T but I thought others here might enjoy this quiz. I wasn't even close to finishing: http://www.sporcle.com/games/smoggy14/firstto40

6. Jesse Says:
   May 15th, 2011 at 5:43 pm

   Obviously it just emphasizes how important plate discipline is. On that list only 3 (Mcgwire @20, Gehrg @ 22 & Hornsby@ 23) weren't 1st or 2nd in BB, and only Sosa had more K than BB.

7. Jesse Says:
   May 15th, 2011 at 5:48 pm

   in regard to post 4 and other 18 year old performances, Cameron has a nice piece on Fangraphs

   http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/bryce-harper-best-prospect-ever/

8. DavidRF Says:
   May 15th, 2011 at 5:59 pm

   @7
   Thanks... he goes back to the 80s which is enough to provide the perspective needed. But it still has be curious about old-timers.

   The current MiLB league hierachy appears to date from the 60s or so. I don't know how to interpret "C-ball" numbers from the 50s.

9. DavidRF Says:
   May 15th, 2011 at 6:09 pm

   Some other 18-year olds (no walk data, no blank OBP)

   Mantle 1950 C .383/????/.638
   Conigliaro 1963 A .363/????/.730

   I don't know how to search for these types of seasons. Found these hunting and pecking.

10. John Autin Says:
    May 15th, 2011 at 6:25 pm

    Noting Harper's 30 strikeouts in 34 games, I had to calculate his BABIP:
    .470

    Sample too small to make any predictions, but it's worth watching.

11. howard rosen Says:
    May 15th, 2011 at 6:54 pm

    How about a shout out for Eddie Mathews who batted .363 and slugged .683 when he was just 17?

12. DavidRF Says:
    May 15th, 2011 at 8:04 pm

    @11
    Good one.

    Medwick hit .419 and slugged .750 in the MidAtlantic League at age 18.

    Cecil Cooper hit .452 and slugged .524 in the NYP league at age 18.

    These are hard to find. Is there a Lahman-like download for minor league stats?

13. Biff Says:
    May 15th, 2011 at 8:44 pm

    Steve, I'm hoping to see him in Lakewood tomorrow night, but I'm cautious the Suns will sit him after playing the first 3 games of the series.

14. Jackson Says:
    May 15th, 2011 at 9:16 pm

    Let them eat pancakes! Because Harper struck out in each of his first two games at Lakewood, the entire crowd was awarded IHOP coupons. And either he or the Nats should be praised, as Bryce signed a fair amount of autographs before and after the game.

15. John Autin Says:
    May 15th, 2011 at 9:54 pm

    Tangent: What's happened to Aroldis Chapman?
    He faced 5 batters tonight and walked 4.
    In his last 4 games, 19 batters faced, he has allowed 12 walks, 1 HBP and 2 hits.

    After allowing just an unearned run in his first 12 games, he has been charged with 10 runs in his last 4 games.

    Chapman now has 20 walks and 2 HBP in 13 IP.

    Recent Fangraphs article suggests he's lost his release point:
    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/diagnosing-aroldis-chapman-s-wildness/

16. John Autin Says:
    May 15th, 2011 at 10:08 pm

    Chapman became the first pitcher since 2009 to issue at least 4 walks while facing no more than 5 batters.

17. Nash Bruce Says:
    May 16th, 2011 at 6:59 am

    @5: I got 24 of 36, and threw in the towel, with a minute left.......how I missed "Mike Piazza" I'll never guess :~p........

18. Steve Lombardi Says:
    May 16th, 2011 at 7:52 am

    Biff - hope you get to see him!
    Jackson - we got "2 for 1's" for a waterpark in Seaside thanks to Harper's K's on Saturday.

    Sadly, on Saturday, we didn't see him do any signing. But, it was raining before the game and maybe that had something to do with it.

19. Chuck Says:
    May 16th, 2011 at 10:23 am

    "Tangent: What's happened to Aroldis Chapman?"

    Answer: Nothing.

    Why do you think he's in Cincinnati?

    Do you really think he was the golden child he would've gotten past New York, Boston, Chicago or any other big $$ franchise?

    He was playing in the Cuban version of the minor leagues. Do you think if he was so good they would have let him walk out of a hotel with no security?

    They WANTED him to leave.

    If Keith Law and the rest of the stathead community get twitches in their shorts because someone throws 100 mph so be it, but at the major league level velocity is overrated.

    Ninety with movement is much harder to hit than a straight 100.

    It was said when he signed and it's worth repeating;

    The Reds paid thirty million for a LOOGY.

    LOL.

20. Chuck Says:
    May 16th, 2011 at 10:25 am

    "But, it was raining before the game and maybe that had something to do with it."

    That's tongue in cheek, right?

    You're really not blaming someone going 0-4 on the weather, are you?

21. John Autin Says:
    May 16th, 2011 at 10:44 am

    @19, Chuck -- The question I raised was about Chapman's control, not his hittability.

    His walk rate last year was mediocre, but this year it's atrocious.

    Furthermore, your implication that his 100+ heat is hittable is not supported by evidence. His MLB BA allowed is .170 (15 for 88), with no HRs. Righty batters have hit .185, lefties .130. Hardly the mark of a LOOGY.

    The issue is his control.

22. Doug B Says:
    May 16th, 2011 at 11:14 am

    as long as people want to compare him to the greats...

    Ted Williams - age 19 at AA Minneapolis
    .366 with 43 home runs

    J. DiMaggio - age 18 in the Pacific Coast League
    .340 with 86XBH and 28 HR

    Alex Rodriquez - age 18 combined A/AA/AAA
    .312 with 21HR in 426 combined AB's

    Ken Griffey Jr. - age 17 & 18 combined A/AA
    .320 with 27HR in 462 combined AB's

    those were much higher levels of competition. but it sure looks like this kid can play.

23. Doug B Says:
    May 16th, 2011 at 11:17 am

    also...

    I recall a certain 19 year old hit .362 with 22 HR in the Sally League in 1953. Name of Henry Aaron.

24. Toserveman Says:
    May 16th, 2011 at 11:33 am

    Lenny Dykstra at Lynchburg (single A), age 20, 1983: .358/.472/.503

25. Steve Lombardi Says:
    May 16th, 2011 at 12:18 pm

    @20, Chuck - no, I'm suggesting that the rain was the reason why he wasn't signing autographs for the fans.

26. Chuck Says:
    May 16th, 2011 at 12:27 pm

    "Hardly the mark of a LOOGY."

    OK, John, I'll bite.

    Then why IS he a LOOGY?

27. Chuck Says:
    May 16th, 2011 at 12:46 pm

    Steve,

    Thanks for clarifying. I KNEW that isn't what you meant, it just came across that way.

    Adding to your Harper story.

    I talked to a media buddy of mine who was at the game and who spoke to Harper afterwards.

    The HR was off the same pitcher who had struck him out the first two times up. The second K was on a breaking ball down and away.

    According to what Harper said, when he went to the plate the third time it was his intention to bunt.

    I saw Harper in the AFL and remember two instances where he led off innings with bunt singles, so it's something he does well and is comfortable with.

    The score was 0-0 and I believe it was the sixth or seventh inning, right?

    Anyway, Harper said he saw the third baseman back and was ready to drop the bunt but recognized the pitch right away as being the same one he struck out on and was ready for it.

    He said the pitch was low like the previous one was but got a little more plate and he just flicked it over the wall in left center.

    He also credits his hot streak to being recently fitted with contact lenses. He referred in the interview to being "blind as a bat" before.

    Here's the video of the homer.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bAu-EZlLq3A&feature=share

28. Chuck Says:
    May 16th, 2011 at 1:11 pm

    My buddy Lou Klimchock won a minor league batting title at the age of 18;

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/leader.cgi?type=bat&id=71ab1493

    He made his ML debut that year as well and homered in his second career game.

    We live in a world of instant access and of endless sources of information, the vast majority of which isn't credible.

    It's only been 35 games, and it's A ball. Low A ball at that.

    What he's doing so far is impressive but far from unprecedented.

    Everyone needs to step back, maybe take a cold shower, and maybe, just maybe, look at what some others are doing.

    Like Manny Machado, for instance.

29. John Autin Says:
    May 16th, 2011 at 4:56 pm

    @26, Chuck -- Perhaps you and I have a different understanding of the term "LOOGY."

    To me, it means a lefty pitcher who specializes in getting out lefty batters, and thus is usually brought into a game expressly to face one or two lefty batters, and is taken out without facing a righty batter as often as not.

    Those guys have two tell-tale characteristics in their stats:
    (1) They wind up facing far more LHBs than RHBs; and
    (2) They average less than 2/3 of an inning per game.
    For example, last year, Randy Choate appeared in 85 games but logged just 44 IP, and 74% of the batters he faced were lefties.

    Chapman's usage pattern to date does not fit those criteria at all:
    -- First, he has faced far more RHBs than LHBs, both last year and this. In total, lefties have made up just 26% of the batters he has faced.
    -- Second, Chapman has averaged 0.85 IP per game, which is far more than any LOOGY.

    Only once in his 31 games has Chapman faced just 1 batter. Three times, he faced just 2 batters; out of the 6 batters he faced in those 3 games, only 1 was a lefty -- the other 5 were righties who had already been in the game when he entered.

    So what's the story? Do you use the term LOOGY differently from how most people use it? Or did you actually think Chapman was being used as a lefty specialist?

30. Johnny Twisto Says:
    May 16th, 2011 at 9:46 pm

    JA, the fact Chapman has faced so many righties certainly indicates he is not being used as a LOOGY. But averaging 0.85 IP per game seems pretty close to specialist territory. I realize the usage of LOOGYs continues to evolve, and you've probably looked at the numbers more recently than I. I would guess that Choate's numbers last season are more extreme than typical -- unless you limit the definition of a LOOGY to parameters which perhaps no pitchers even met when the term was originally coined.

    Despite his typically prickish manner, Chuck does have a point that Chapman is being paid a lot of money for little use. I didn't even realize he had averaged under an IP/G in MLB. I assumed he was getting more multi-inning stints since he has been a SP and (one would hope) still has the opportunity to be one in the future.

    The rest of his post is silly.
    - I don't know anything about Cuba's "minor league" system, but Chapman was on their WBC team.
    - He's 23 and having serious control problems. He has plenty of time to work on them, and has obviously proven incredibly difficult to hit when he gets the ball over ("straight" fastball or not).
    - Even the "rich" teams have budgets, and even their scouts can make mistakes. The Yankees could have loved him and still not felt he was worth offering more than $25M.
    - Now it's "statheads" who get excited by 100 mph? As Chuck would say, "LOL"

31. John Autin Says:
    May 16th, 2011 at 10:25 pm

    @30, JT -- I agree that 0.85 IP/G is not a heavy workload. But yes, the LOOGY usage pattern has "evolved" to a frightening degree. Last year alone, there were 12 pitchers (all lefties) who appeared in at least 40 games while averaging less than 0.7 IP. Over the past 3 years, Pedro Feliciano appeared in 266 games (leading MLB each year) while totaling just 175 IP, an average of 0.66 IP/G.

    Last year, there were also 12 RH relievers with 40+ games and < 0.9 IP/G. The relief IP/G average in MLB just keeps trending downward.

    I think the Reds are just being ultra-cautious with Chapman at the MLB level. Still, 21 of his 31 appearances have gone at least an inning, with 4 going a little longer.

    I have no problem with Chuck making the argument that the Reds are not getting the biggest bang for their buck in how they're using Chapman, or making the point that his 100+ heat guarantees nothing. But I object to repeated inaccurate statements when the facts are readily available.

32. John Autin Says:
    May 16th, 2011 at 10:31 pm

    P.S. If I set the search to LH relievers with 40+ games averaging < 0.8 IP, there were 19 such LOOGY's last year, averaging 63 games, 41-2/3 IP, and 0.66 IP/G. That's what I call a LOOGY.

33. Johnny Twisto Says:
    May 16th, 2011 at 10:56 pm

    Perhaps the changes have not been as dramatic recently as I thought. Using those same search terms, I get 18 such guys in 2005, and 12 in 2000. More than I would have thought.

    And Chapman's career is still so young that his career IP/G ratio can change daily. Due to wildness, he's retired only one batter in his last 3 games. Remove those and he's at 0.93 IP/G, not far off almost any reliever these days. Prior to that, he had gone 1.2 IP twice in 8 days (with three other appearances in between), so perhaps Dusty was going to start stretching him a bit.

34. Steve Lombardi Says:
    May 17th, 2011 at 8:40 am

    Chuck - belated thanks for the video link of the HR.

35. Chuck Says:
    May 17th, 2011 at 12:16 pm

    Johnny @ # 30

    "Prickish manner"..LOL Always good to hear from you.

    John @ #31

    So, you're going to nickel and dime the difference between .85 and .66 IP? Call it what you want, LOOGY, situational lefty, waste of money, the point appeared to only have been lost on you. Makes you sound like a guy who causes a scene in a restaurant because they won't honor an expired coupon.

    Steve @ #34

    You're welcome, sir.

36. SABR43 Says:
    May 19th, 2011 at 11:40 pm

    He's not 18. He's 19.