Is Kevin Millwood really that bad?

Posted by Andy on March 26, 2011

Kevin Millwood finally has a team after signing a minor-league deal with the Yankees. I'm surprised it took him so long to find a job.

Yeah, in 2010 he had just an 82 ERA+ and 16 losses, but check out the list of the most recent guys to do that:

Rk	Player	Year	L	ERA+	Age	Tm	G	GS	CG	SHO	W	W-L%	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	ERA	HR	OPS+
1	Joe Saunders	2010	17	93	29	TOT	33	33	3	1	9	.346	203.1	232	120	101	64	114	4.47	25	118
2	Kevin Millwood	2010	16	83	35	BAL	31	31	1	0	4	.200	190.2	223	116	108	65	132	5.10	30	119
3	Rodrigo Lopez	2010	16	85	34	ARI	33	33	0	0	7	.304	200.0	227	126	111	56	116	5.00	37	123
4	Jeremy Guthrie	2009	17	90	30	BAL	33	33	1	0	10	.370	200.0	224	120	112	60	110	5.04	35	115
5	Zach Duke	2009	16	102	26	PIT	32	32	3	1	11	.407	213.0	231	101	96	49	106	4.06	23	106
6	Aaron Harang	2008	17	93	30	CIN	30	29	1	1	6	.261	184.1	205	104	98	50	153	4.78	35	119
7	Greg Smith	2008	16	100	24	OAK	32	32	2	0	7	.304	190.1	169	92	88	87	111	4.16	21	97
8	Justin Verlander	2008	17	93	25	DET	33	33	1	0	11	.393	201.0	195	119	108	87	163	4.84	18	88
9	Barry Zito	2008	17	86	30	SFG	32	32	0	0	10	.370	180.0	186	115	103	102	120	5.15	16	106
10	Javier Vazquez	2008	16	98	32	CHW	33	33	1	0	12	.429	208.1	214	113	108	61	200	4.67	25	94
11	Daniel Cabrera	2007	18	83	26	BAL	34	34	1	0	9	.333	204.1	207	133	126	108	166	5.55	25	103
12	Jose Contreras	2007	17	84	35	CHW	32	30	2	2	10	.370	189.0	232	134	117	62	113	5.57	21	110
13	Matt Cain	2007	16	123	22	SFG	32	32	1	0	7	.304	200.0	173	84	81	79	163	3.65	14	78
14	Nate Robertson	2005	16	95	27	DET	32	32	2	0	7	.304	196.2	202	113	98	65	122	4.48	28	103
15	Kip Wells	2005	18	83	28	PIT	33	33	1	1	8	.308	182.0	186	116	103	99	132	5.09	23	115
16	Jamey Wright	2005	16	88	30	COL	34	27	0	0	8	.333	171.1	201	119	104	81	101	5.46	22	120
17	Brandon Webb	2004	16	129	25	ARI	35	35	1	0	7	.304	208.0	194	111	83	119	164	3.59	17	87
18	Darrell May	2004	19	85	32	KCR	31	31	3	1	9	.321	186.0	234	130	116	55	120	5.61	38	130
19	Ryan Franklin	2004	16	93	31	SEA	32	32	2	1	4	.200	200.1	224	116	109	61	104	4.90	33	116
20	John Lackey	2003	16	95	24	ANA	33	33	2	2	10	.385	204.0	223	117	105	66	151	4.63	31	109
21	Jeff D'Amico	2003	16	92	27	PIT	29	29	2	1	9	.360	175.1	204	104	93	42	100	4.77	23	110
22	Nate Cornejo	2003	17	92	23	DET	32	32	2	0	6	.261	194.2	236	111	101	58	46	4.67	18	118

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/25/2011.

This is not a list full of stinkers. Yeah, there are a lot of guys who led their league in losses (see bold numbers). But then there are some guys like #8 Verlander, #13 Cain, and #17 Webb who had excellent OPS+ against numbers and still racked up the losses. Quite a few other names on this list put together good careers and had many other good seasons.

Don't get me wrong--I'm not suggesting that Millwood is a #1 or #2 type guy, especially at his age. But he's a pretty good bet to be solid, pitch a lot of innings, go relatively deep into games, and be a good guy to fill the back end of a rotation. Given that he ultimately agreed to a minor-league deal, I'm surprised some team didn't throw a couple of million bucks at him to make him a #5 starter.

This entry was posted on Saturday, March 26th, 2011 at 7:32 am and is filed under Season Finders. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

28 Responses to “Is Kevin Millwood really that bad?”

WilliaminMaine Says:
March 26th, 2011 at 7:38 am
But did you also notice that only two other guys on this list had a higher OPS against than Millwood? The guy is toast.
Paul Lebowitz Says:
March 26th, 2011 at 7:44 am
He's not bad at all, but the combination of larger than reasonable financial demands; the implication that he's out of shape; and his reportedly diminished velocity makes it understandable that teams like the Cardinals chose to go with what they had instead.
The Yankees are desperate.
Bill Petti Says:
March 26th, 2011 at 8:15 am
Who cares about losses? Look at the guys with the low ERA+ and high OPS+--Millwood doesn't have a lot of good company there. With the exception of Harang, not a lot to like.
Biff Says:
March 26th, 2011 at 8:21 am
"I'm surprised some team didn't throw a couple of million bucks at him to make him a #5 starter."

That does not surprise me one bit, even given the desperation of some GMs. Even if he does chew innings as a number 5, you'd want something resembling a .500 pitcher and/or a mid 4 ERA to want to throw money at.

Millwood could be that bad again; he's been ridiculously unpredictable in the last few years. Time is not on his side, but it's hard to argue a low investment signing to a guy with his experience.
Andy Says:
March 26th, 2011 at 8:30 am
Fair enough. With the trade of Sergio Mitre, it seems that the Yankees have committed to having Ivan Nova, Bartolo Colon, and Freddy Garcia all on their pitching staff. Colon seems the most likely to break down. I wouldn't be surprised if Millwood ends up with a handful of starts.

I wonder how much GMs were bothered by his W-L record in evaluating him, though. I'm not saying his other numbers were good, but certainly not as bad as a cursory analysis of his record might suggest.
Frank Clingenpeel Says:
March 26th, 2011 at 9:47 am
I would say he's pretty bad; but then, no one ever offerred me a contract to pitch, so I suppose I can't judge.
Mike S. Says:
March 26th, 2011 at 9:52 am
You'd enhance the credibility of the piece if you would spell his name right. Millwood. Two l's, and it's not like it's a one-time mistake. It is misspelled throughout the entire piece.
Andy Says:
March 26th, 2011 at 10:06 am
#6 Thanks. I pride myself on correct spelling but do occasionally make mistakes. Fixed now.
Wine Curmudgeon Says:
March 26th, 2011 at 10:37 am
The question is not whether Millwood stinks; the question is whether can you get a pitcher of similar talent for less money. Given Millwood's numbers last year, aren't there an almost infinite number of replacement level players who will sign for the minimum and save a team $1 million or so?
Butch Says:
March 26th, 2011 at 11:40 am
I think it's just the opposite, Wine Curmudgeon: If you're the Yankees, would you rather spend $1 million on a replacement-level Millwood, or be forced to promote Betances/Brackman/Banuelos a year too early?
John Q Says:
March 26th, 2011 at 1:36 pm
Millwood was pretty awful last year and he's going to be 36 years old so that has to be taken into consideration.

He was awful with letting up the HR ball last year, ranking 42/43 in HR/9 in the A.L. He was pretty awful in letting up hits as well, ranking 41/43 in H/9 in the A.L.

His k/bb wasn't that great either, 2.03, 31st/43 in the A.L.

He might be halfway decent in a pitcher's park like San Diego, Seattle or Citi Field where the ball park would tend to keep those HR in the park.
Doug Says:
March 26th, 2011 at 3:01 pm
Quick, how many modern-era (since 1920) HOF pitchers have lost 20 games in a season? If you've said 7, you're right (and some of those have done it more than once).

Now, I'm certainly not saying Millwood's going to the Hall. But, even very good pitchers can pile up the losses on occasion.
Bill Petti Says:
March 26th, 2011 at 3:18 pm
@ Doug: Again, it isn't about wins in isolation. His peripherals stunk and haven't been that good for a while.

Last year he had the worst FIP for any pitcher in the AL with >=180 IP. His xFIP was 5th worst.

His HR/9 hasn't been significantly below league average since 2006, and he's been giving up ~40% fly balls in hitter friendly environments, with a HR/FB rate of about 11%. Also, his K/BB ratio has been trending the wrong way since 2006.

All told, that's not exactly a great fit for NY.
paul Says:
March 26th, 2011 at 3:42 pm
He has pitched to a WHIP >1.5 three out of the past four years. He's now 36. Yes, he's that bad.
Doug Says:
March 26th, 2011 at 3:47 pm
@ 12.

Bill, not defending Millwood's performance or results (both sub-par, I agree) but most 36 year-olds will have have seen their performance metrics trending the wrong way for a while - probably, like Millwood, starting in their early 30s.

I also agree that if you were going to fit Millwood to the ballpark least likely to expose his weaknesses, then Yankee Stadium is just about the last place you would put him. Hard to figure why the Yanks would get him unless they are truly desperate, or they think they can fix something they've spotted in his delivery that might be contributing to all the fly balls.

BTW, that HOF query result was just something I ran a few days ago after I was looking at Red Ruffing's player page, and was startled to see back-to-back 20-loss seasons just below the "Hall of Fame" banner. To digress, Ruffing was actually 19-47 those two years and, unsurprisingly, got traded to the Yankees the next season. But, unlike Millwood's case, Ruffing's Yanks were picking up a 25 year-old with 5 years big-league experience and still a lot of potential upside.
DavidRF Says:
March 26th, 2011 at 3:49 pm
Millwood's career has been very up and down. He was good-to-great in '99, '02, '05 and '09 with some fairly ordinary-to-crummy years in between.

This is where I'd be interested in hearing what the scouts and coaches say. If someone thinks they understand what he's doing right in the good years and wrong in the bad years. Is it all just random BABIP stuff or is it injuries or mechanics? Or is his arm just dead? It makes sense that somebody would take a chance and see if they can fix him.
TheIronHorse Says:
March 26th, 2011 at 5:51 pm
As a diehard fan since 76 I have been calling for the Yanks to sign
Millwood all winter, once it became apparent that Andy was retitred.

The reason is quite simple. Put him at #5 and count on 30 starts. Then
if you end up with a better option, great. If not, you have a durable and
experienced innings eater.
Jeff Says:
March 26th, 2011 at 9:27 pm
Millwood will never be "that bad" as long as there's Jamey Wright on a list for him to be compared to.
kenh Says:
March 26th, 2011 at 11:30 pm
All the Yankees need to do now is sign Tommy John and they will start to resemble their late 80's gong show of a pitching staff.
T Says:
March 26th, 2011 at 11:30 pm
Except for a decent 2009, Millwood's ERA has sucked big time every year since 2005, and that title was sort of like Del Unser leading the A.L. in triples in '69. Sometimes a player gets kinda lucky! He's toast........but worth a cheap gamble on. I hope he's done, if only for the fact that the Yuckees would fail to capture the illusive 'lightening in a bottle'.
Gerry Says:
March 27th, 2011 at 6:18 am
@15, Ruffing had those bad years with terrible Red Sox teams. Bill James pointed out many years ago that there were a bunch of pitchers who would go .300 with a .400 team but .700 with a .600 team, and Ruffing was one of his examples.
StephenH Says:
March 27th, 2011 at 8:50 am
#21 -"Bill James pointed out many years ago that there were a bunch of pitchers who would go .300 with a .400 team but .700 with a .600 team, and Ruffing was one of his examples."

I thought that Ruffing was the only pitcher that James pointed out, who else did he mention?
KJ Says:
March 27th, 2011 at 3:23 pm
Yes.
LT Says:
March 27th, 2011 at 8:46 pm
@2, Signing a guy to a minor league contract is not a desperate move. He'll probably never throw an inning for them unless he can show he has something.
John Autin Says:
March 27th, 2011 at 11:18 pm
Millwood's BABIP has been all over the map in the last few years:
-- 2007, .340
-- 2008, .358
-- 2009, .275
-- 2010, .320
(His career BABIP is a very normal .301.)

His ERA has followed suit:
-- 2007, 5.16
-- 2008, 5.07
-- 2009, 3.75
-- 2010, 5.10

If BABIP is essentially luck, then Millwood was unlucky last year, very lucky in '09, and extremely unlucky in '08 (when the rest of his rate stats were significantly better than in '09, when he had a good ERA).

But I don't any of that adds up to a better outlook for Millwood than one would form simply by noting that he's 36 years old and had a bad ERA+ in 3 of the last 4 years.
Bill Petti Says:
March 27th, 2011 at 11:25 pm
@ 25: One season can be chalked up to bad luck, maybe two. But when you see 3 out of 4 years it isn't about luck anymore, it's about stuff. The outlier above is 2009, not the other three years.

Context matters, especially with BABIP. The context here is an ageing pitcher that has shown signs of decline for a few years. Given that, we should interpret his BABIP numbers as another signal that his stuff isn't what it used to be.
John Autin Says:
March 28th, 2011 at 12:52 am
@26, Bill Pelti -- I agree with your general assessment of Millwood. But isn't it possible to be both bad and unlucky? Also, while I am not fully read-up on BABIP studies, I haven't heard of a direct correlation between "stuff" and BABIP. As I understand it, "stuff" is best interpreted by strikeouts and HRs allowed.

Again, while I be as surprised as you would be by a Millwood resurgence, there's also no question that the O's were a poor defensive club last year. Fangraphs has Millwood's expected FIP at 4.66, which is no great shakes but a fair sight better than his 5.10 ERA.
Bill Petti Says:
March 28th, 2011 at 7:23 am
@ 27: Sure, it's possible to be both bad and unlucky. That's why I brought up context. If you look at more than just his BABIP it's pretty clear luck isn't the main culprit. So, sure, his FIP was .44 lower than his ERA, but his FIP was about 60th worst in the AL among starters with >=90 IPs. So 10 starters were worse last year.

Here are some other numbers.

HR/9 since 2008:
.96
1.18
1.42

HR/FB%:
9.3%
10.6%
11.6%

K/9:
6.67
5.57
6.23

FIP:
4.20
4.78
4.66

Also, his first-strike % has decreased from 62% to 56%, and his contact % has increased from 85.6% to 86.1% since 2008.

Millwood can still strike guys out (he was 38/70 among AL starters >=90 IP in 2010), but if he doesn't the numbers aren't pretty. His K/BB was among the bottom half of starters. And just look at his values by pitch type--nothing signals that his troubles are due to the O's defense.

To me, the proponderance of the evidence suggests he's just not that good anymore, luck or no luck.

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