MLB playoff odds are based on 1000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2025-04-27. This page does not update during the postseason.
Most Likely Scenarios
| First Round Bye | Wild Card Round | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lg | Top Seed | Division Winner | Division Winner | Wild Card | Wild Card | Wild Card | ||
| NL | Chicago Cubs | New York Mets | San Diego Padres | Arizona Diamondbacks | Los Angeles Dodgers | San Francisco Giants | ||
| AL | Detroit Tigers | New York Yankees | Seattle Mariners | Houston Astros | Tampa Bay Rays | Kansas City Royals | ||
Playoff Odds
| Current | Remaining | Average | 90% Confidence | Change | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tm | Lg | D | SRS | rSOS | W | L | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Post | WC | Div | LDS | LCS | Pennant | Win WS | 1 Day | 7 Days | 30 Days | |||||||
| NL East | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | New York Mets | NL | E | 0.8 | 0.1 | 19 | 9 | 74.6 | 59.4 | 93.6 | 68.4 | 103-59 | 84-78 | 88.4% | 7.2% | 81.2% | 67.3% | 32.3% | 15.7% | 7.5% | -2.1% | +14.1% | +13.3% | ||||||
| 2 | Atlanta Braves | NL | E | 0.4 | 0.0 | 12 | 15 | 71.6 | 63.4 | 83.6 | 78.4 | 92-70 | 75-87 | 26.6% | 16.3% | 10.3% | 13.5% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 2.1% | -5.1% | +4.4% | -26.6% | ||||||
| 3 | Philadelphia Phillies | NL | E | 0.2 | 0.0 | 15 | 13 | 68.5 | 65.5 | 83.5 | 78.5 | 93-69 | 74-88 | 24.6% | 16.3% | 8.3% | 11.3% | 4.5% | 1.3% | 0.6% | +7.0% | -0.8% | -14.9% | ||||||
| 4 | Miami Marlins | NL | E | -0.8 | 0.1 | 12 | 15 | 60.3 | 74.7 | 72.3 | 89.7 | 82-80 | 62-100 | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | +0.1% | -0.8% | ||||||
| 5 | Washington Nationals | NL | E | -0.8 | 0.2 | 13 | 15 | 57.6 | 76.4 | 70.6 | 91.4 | 81-81 | 61-101 | 0.7% | 0.7% | <0.1% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | +0.4% | +0.3% | -1.5% | ||||||
| NL Central | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Chicago Cubs | NL | C | 1.4 | -0.1 | 17 | 12 | 78.7 | 54.3 | 95.7 | 66.3 | 105-57 | 87-75 | 93.4% | 15.5% | 77.9% | 78.9% | 45.0% | 26.2% | 15.0% | -2.3% | -0.2% | +30.0% | ||||||
| 2 | Milwaukee Brewers | NL | C | 1.0 | 0.1 | 14 | 15 | 74.6 | 58.4 | 88.6 | 73.4 | 98-64 | 80-82 | 56.9% | 38.2% | 18.7% | 35.0% | 16.5% | 9.7% | 6.3% | +3.2% | -0.4% | -1.0% | ||||||
| 3 | Cincinnati Reds | NL | C | 0.3 | 0.2 | 15 | 13 | 67.9 | 66.1 | 82.9 | 79.1 | 92-70 | 74-88 | 19.2% | 16.4% | 2.8% | 8.5% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 0.6% | +2.4% | -0.7% | +8.4% | ||||||
| 4 | St. Louis Cardinals | NL | C | 0.1 | 0.2 | 12 | 16 | 65.7 | 68.3 | 77.7 | 84.3 | 87-75 | 68-94 | 5.4% | 4.8% | 0.6% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% | <0.1% | -1.4% | +2.5% | -16.7% | ||||||
| 5 | Pittsburgh Pirates | NL | C | -0.6 | 0.3 | 11 | 18 | 58.4 | 74.6 | 69.4 | 92.6 | 79-83 | 60-102 | 0.2% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | -0.4% | -3.5% | ||||||
| NL West | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | San Diego Padres | NL | W | 0.9 | 0.1 | 17 | 11 | 75.5 | 58.5 | 92.5 | 69.5 | 102-60 | 83-79 | 79.7% | 42.5% | 37.2% | 56.7% | 30.4% | 14.8% | 8.0% | -7.2% | -12.1% | -6.9% | ||||||
| 2 | Arizona Diamondbacks | NL | W | 1.2 | 0.0 | 15 | 13 | 75.5 | 58.5 | 90.5 | 71.5 | 100-62 | 81-81 | 70.9% | 50.4% | 20.5% | 42.7% | 22.4% | 11.2% | 5.6% | +1.6% | -14.3% | +0.9% | ||||||
| 3 | Los Angeles Dodgers | NL | W | 0.7 | 0.1 | 18 | 10 | 72.1 | 61.9 | 90.1 | 71.9 | 100-62 | 80-82 | 67.8% | 46.4% | 21.4% | 42.0% | 19.5% | 8.2% | 4.5% | +2.2% | +7.4% | -8.7% | ||||||
| 4 | San Francisco Giants | NL | W | 0.6 | 0.1 | 19 | 10 | 71.0 | 62.0 | 90.0 | 72.0 | 99-63 | 81-81 | 65.6% | 44.7% | 20.9% | 40.9% | 17.9% | 8.1% | 3.7% | +1.3% | +0.1% | +28.3% | ||||||
| 5 | Colorado Rockies | NL | W | -1.4 | 0.3 | 4 | 23 | 53.4 | 81.6 | 57.4 | 104.6 | 67-95 | 48-114 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.3% | ||||||
| Current | Remaining | Average | 90% Confidence | Change | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tm | Lg | D | SRS | rSOS | W | L | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Post | WC | Div | LDS | LCS | Pennant | Win WS | 1 Day | 7 Days | 30 Days | |||||||
| AL East | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | New York Yankees | AL | E | 0.8 | -0.3 | 17 | 11 | 76.0 | 58.0 | 93.0 | 69.0 | 102-60 | 83-79 | 96.0% | 14.9% | 81.1% | 77.7% | 42.1% | 23.0% | 10.0% | +5.3% | +0.5% | +28.3% | ||||||
| 2 | Tampa Bay Rays | AL | E | 0.2 | -0.1 | 14 | 14 | 71.0 | 63.0 | 85.0 | 77.0 | 94-68 | 76-86 | 65.8% | 50.4% | 15.4% | 35.1% | 16.2% | 7.2% | 3.1% | +14.4% | +29.6% | +18.7% | ||||||
| 3 | Boston Red Sox | AL | E | -0.5 | 0.1 | 16 | 14 | 61.9 | 70.1 | 77.9 | 84.1 | 87-75 | 69-93 | 19.4% | 17.1% | 2.3% | 8.6% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | +4.9% | +2.8% | +5.2% | ||||||
| 4 | Toronto Blue Jays | AL | E | -0.5 | -0.1 | 13 | 15 | 62.8 | 70.2 | 75.8 | 85.2 | 86-75 | 66-95 | 11.8% | 11.2% | 0.6% | 4.3% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | -7.1% | -18.9% | -10.1% | ||||||
| 5 | Baltimore Orioles | AL | E | -0.6 | -0.1 | 10 | 17 | 62.1 | 71.9 | 72.1 | 88.9 | 82-79 | 63-98 | 4.0% | 3.4% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | -1.6% | -4.5% | -40.6% | ||||||
| AL Central | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Detroit Tigers | AL | C | 0.9 | -0.3 | 18 | 10 | 79.2 | 54.8 | 97.2 | 64.8 | 107-55 | 88-74 | 99.0% | 7.9% | 91.1% | 90.9% | 53.8% | 32.6% | 15.9% | -0.4% | +2.1% | +32.3% | ||||||
| 2 | Kansas City Royals | AL | C | 0.2 | -0.2 | 14 | 15 | 70.5 | 62.5 | 84.5 | 77.5 | 94-68 | 75-87 | 60.1% | 53.6% | 6.5% | 32.0% | 13.7% | 5.9% | 2.8% | -8.5% | +17.9% | +6.7% | ||||||
| 3 | Cleveland Guardians | AL | C | -0.2 | -0.1 | 15 | 12 | 66.1 | 68.9 | 81.1 | 80.9 | 90-72 | 72-90 | 38.9% | 36.6% | 2.3% | 17.7% | 5.6% | 1.8% | 0.9% | -10.4% | -9.8% | -22.0% | ||||||
| 4 | Minnesota Twins | AL | C | -0.5 | 0.0 | 12 | 16 | 62.6 | 71.4 | 74.6 | 87.4 | 84-78 | 65-97 | 7.7% | 7.6% | 0.1% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% | <0.1% | +0.1% | -0.6% | -30.6% | ||||||
| 5 | Chicago White Sox | AL | C | -1.9 | 0.1 | 7 | 21 | 47.3 | 86.7 | 54.3 | 107.7 | 63-99 | 45-117 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.2% | ||||||
| AL West | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Seattle Mariners | AL | W | 0.6 | -0.2 | 16 | 12 | 74.4 | 59.6 | 90.4 | 71.6 | 100-62 | 81-81 | 91.6% | 31.1% | 60.5% | 66.6% | 34.6% | 16.3% | 7.6% | +2.0% | +3.1% | +23.9% | ||||||
| 2 | Houston Astros | AL | W | 0.4 | -0.3 | 14 | 13 | 74.2 | 60.8 | 88.2 | 73.8 | 98-64 | 79-83 | 82.7% | 46.0% | 36.7% | 53.1% | 25.8% | 10.8% | 4.8% | +2.1% | +1.2% | -11.4% | ||||||
| 3 | Athletics | AL | W | -0.5 | -0.1 | 14 | 14 | 63.3 | 70.7 | 77.3 | 84.7 | 87-75 | 68-94 | 17.1% | 14.9% | 2.2% | 6.4% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | +2.0% | -7.2% | +2.5% | ||||||
| 4 | Texas Rangers | AL | W | -1.0 | -0.1 | 15 | 13 | 58.0 | 76.0 | 73.0 | 89.0 | 82-80 | 64-98 | 5.5% | 4.9% | 0.6% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | <0.1% | -2.9% | -14.6% | -1.6% | ||||||
| 5 | Los Angeles Angels | AL | W | -1.4 | 0.0 | 12 | 15 | 54.3 | 80.7 | 66.3 | 95.7 | 76-86 | 57-105 | 0.4% | 0.4% | <0.1% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | +0.1% | -1.6% | -1.1% | ||||||
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